中国“三农”问题研究现状及其成果评价——基于国家社科基金项目及其成果论文的计量分析

随着国家社科基金项目对“三农”问题研究的资助力度不断加强,相关研究发展迅速且成果卓著,对此进行整体梳理,既有助于总结以往研究的经验,也有益于相关问题研究的不断深入.文章以1991-2015年立项的3 375项“三农”问题国家社科基金项目及其18 770篇成果论文为研究对象,对项目信息、成果论文、研究热点与评价等方面进行计量分析,全面呈现中国“三农”问题近30年的发展与研究状况.研究表明,农民、新生代农民工、新农村等为“三农”问题的研究热点,有关农民、农民工的论文最受关注且被引频次最高.     

讲学与传道: 马一浮与国立浙江大学

抗日战争期间,国立浙江大学被迫西迁,马一浮应浙大校长竺可桢之请为浙江大学师生开设国学讲座,为浙大创制校歌,这段历史成为浙大校史上光辉的一页。但相关文献和档案却显示,马一浮与浙江大学的交往充满各种误会与纠结,浙大险些因此错过这位“士林宗仰”的国学大师;而走过国立浙大的马一浮亦在他唯一任教的大学里,利用各种机会引导学生摒弃实用主义的现代工业观,回归对文化根本的关注,尽管讲学效果与其预想相距甚远。马一浮在浙大讲学并传道,结集而成的《宜山泰和会语》是马一浮一生讲阐六艺国学最集中的部分,由此完成了更为高迈、通贯的学术思想和学术人格的构建,并以一场场思想与精神的盛宴,寄予浙大很深的希望。     

Substance use disorders and referral to treatment in substantiated cases of child maltreatment

Parents with substance use disorders (SUD) require treatment and support in order to provide children with appropriate care and protection. Using the 2012 National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS), this paper analysed 464 313 substantiated child maltreatment reports to determine (i) the proportion and characteristics of reports involving substance abuse; and (ii) the child and caregiver/perpetrator (C/P) characteristics that predicted referral to treatment as recorded in service plans. Findings indicate that 12% (N = 53 234) of maltreatment reports involved C/P SUD. Yet, of those reports, only (19%) (N = 10 088) were referred to substance abuse treatment as part of their service plan, indicating a large gap between those who need treatment and those who receive it. This finding is important given that parental SUD is consistently linked to poorer child outcomes. Amongst other variables, reports indicate that C/P with co‐occurring emotional disturbance were three times more likely to be referred to treatment for SUD as part of service plans. Additional research is needed regarding the characteristics that distinguish C/P who receive referrals for SUD treatment in substantiated cases of child maltreatment.     

Incomes after Job‐loss in the United States: From Programme Rules to Panel Data

Welfare state studies are usually motivated by one or both of two concerns: programme effects on the incidence of poverty, and the possibility of perverse incentive effects. Most research has been comparative, using cross‐national indicators from the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development and other international organizations. That research often contrasts the generosity of programmes in a number of European countries and the lack of it in the USA. Focusing on income transfers after job‐loss, in this article we critically examine the comparative evidence on US welfare state generosity and then use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to estimate what happens to job‐losers' incomes. The comparative analysis suggests conclusions more nuanced than found in much of the literature. The PSID analysis shows how the income effects of job‐loss vary across job‐losers and suggests that the role of unemployment compensation programmes in supporting incomes may be overstated.     

西南联大时期的许宝騄与戴世光

许宝騄、戴世光是我国近现代数理统计和社会经济统计领域的两面旗帜。他们二位在上世纪30年代分别留学英国和美国，获得统计学博士和硕士学位。抗日战争爆发后，分别在1940年、1938年回到昆明，任教西南联大。在极其困难的条件下，他们不仅在算学系、经济学系系统讲授数理统计和社会经济统计等课程，而且作出了有重大国际影响的研究成果。艰苦而乐观的生活趣事既反映了当时特殊的时代背景，更彰显出他们高尚的人格品德。     

中国国民财富总量、结构及其演进模式研究——基于“自上而下-自下而上”测度范式

“财富-福利等式”表明国民财富与社会福利具有理论等价关系,是评估发展可持续性的最优指示器。我国国民财富研究相对滞后,总量测度与结构分析都亟待深化。本文基于“自上而下-自下而上”范式,依据国情优化关键参数的设定,改进了我国国民财富与分类资本估算,并剖析了省际国民财富结构以识别其演进模式。研究发现:由于资源禀赋与发展阶段有别,省际国民财富结构差异显著;随着经济发展水平提升,国民财富结构先由自然资本主导转向物质资本与人力资本共同主导,进而转变为人力资本主导,最终迈入社会资本主导。各地区应结合自身禀赋与发展阶段做好“投资组合管理”,以此来提升国民财富并优化其结构从而改善经济发展的持续性。     

Business reform outcomes: Why so different?

Post-crisis policy making increasingly focuses on doing business reforms. We argue that the effects of those reforms will be different across countries. To understand the reasons for the reform outcome divergence, we advance a novel firm-size distribution (FSDs) argument. At the center of the argument is the fact that FSDs are different across countries and stable over time. Then, if a given doing business reform induces firms of different size to grow differently, this will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries. To advance the argument, we set up a tractable general equilibrium (GE) model and study how firms of different size grow after a doing business reform. The model predicts that larger firms will grow faster than smaller firms after the reform. The model predictions are tested on the Enterprise Surveys (ES) data, merged with the Doing Business indicators. We confirm that firms of different size grow differently after a Doing Business reform. Thus, based on the notable differences of firm size distributions across countries, identical reforms to start, operate and close a business will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries.     

数字经济供给使用表:概念架构与编制实践研究

数字经济供给使用表是数字经济卫星账户的核心表式,具有统计协调和分析工具的双重作用,能够准确监测数字经济产业发展规模及传统产业与数字经济的融合程度。目前,国际上对数字经济供给使用表的研究尚处于初期探索阶段,还未有国家编制出基于实际数据的数字经济供给使用表,经济合作与发展组织(OECD)对数字经济供给使用表的理论框架进行了前瞻性探索,但系统的数字经济供给使用表构建指南还亟待完善。本文首先从供给和使用层面构建数字经济供给使用表概念框架,界定数字经济特征活动的概念和范围,梳理OECD 划分的数字经济供给使用表中的产品清单和数字经济产业分类;阐释数字经济最终消费、固定资本形成、贸易活动的内涵和种类。其次,围绕“产品×产业×特征活动”三重维度,设计数字经济供给使用表整体架构、阐明其核心指标。再次,编制数字经济供给使用表实例,剖析编制流程、总结编制要点。最后,提出结论和建议。本文尝试完善数字经济统计核算体系,为提出促进我国数字经济高质量发展的政策建议提供核算方法参考。     

残疾文化胜任力:一个理论概念的嬗变研究

残疾文化胜任力是残疾研究领域的一项重要议题,为残疾研究开辟了全新的视野。残疾文化胜任力的嬗变过程经历了研究视角的转型、概念内涵的探明、实践目标的定型三个发展阶段。研究视角的转型包括从“同质化”向“文化多元化”的转型,以及从“文化胜任力”向“残疾文化胜任力”的转型。残疾文化胜任力的内涵包括意识胜任力、态度胜任力、知识胜任力和技能胜任力。残疾文化胜任力的实践目标包括观念性目标、机制性目标与能力性目标。残疾文化胜任力对我国残疾人事业高质量发展具有启示价值,并在残疾人工作研究、残疾人工作实务和残疾人工作策略方面具有视角创新、工具创新与思路创新的价值。     

The consequences of parental labor migration in China for children's emotional wellbeing

Using data from the 2010 wave of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we study the effects of internal migration in China on the emotional wellbeing of children age 10–15. The 2010 CFPS, a national probability sample survey of the Chinese population, includes 3464 children within this age range. We compare five groups: rural children with local registration living with both parents; urban children with local registration living with both parents; children accompanying their migrant parent(s), children left behind with one parent when the other parent goes out to work; and children left behind or sent to live with others when both parents go out to work. We expect the last three groups to be at risk of increased emotional difficulties compared to children living with both parents. We test these expectations using both conventional regression models and community fixed-effects models. The evidence supporting our expectations is very weak and inconsistent, leading us to conclude that in the Chinese context family arrangements have little impact on the emotional wellbeing of children. We conclude by offering some conjectures as to why this is so.