央行沟通对于货币政策实际干预的预测能力研究

信息沟通有助于公众理解和预测货币政策的实际干预,进而提高货币政策有效性。研究中国人民银行的信息沟通对实际政策干预的预测能力需要解决沟通文本的测度问题,同时考虑实际政策干预多工具并用的复杂性。基于此,本文通过文本分析方法提取《货币政策执行报告》的信息,进而考察央行沟通对于货币政策实际干预的预测能力。研究表明,整体而言,市场对中国人民银行“听其言”有助于“观其行”。具体来看,央行沟通对于直接可控的基准利率和存款准备金率具有持续的预测能力,但对于市场利率的预测能力较差,对于M2增长率的预测甚至存在方向不一致的情况。     

论新媒体冲击下纸媒的生存与发展——以报纸为例

互联网的发展、智能手机的普及使传统的传媒环境和格局发生了翻天覆地的变化。新媒体的崛起与壮大给以纸媒为代表的传统媒体带来了前所未有的冲击，但不可否认的是，纸媒自身依然有不可替代的优势。本文主要以报纸为例，从纸媒传播内容的深度和可信度、纸媒对于受众文化素质的要求以及纸媒的表现形式、和受众的互动等方面的特点入手，分析在新媒体的冲击下纸媒所面临的生存现状，并且在此基础上指出将来纸媒应该如何利用新媒体的技术来促进自身的发展，更好地实现新媒体与传统媒体的融合。     

Fluctuating capacity of policy advice in Russia: testing theory in developing country context

ABSTRACT

Theories and concepts developed and empirically tested in the context of North American and Western European countries do not always easily transfer to another political landscape. The concept of “policy advisory system” is not an exception. On the one hand, policy processes and policy styles are not unique for each country; therefore, some generalizations can be made. On the other hand, studding particularities of policy process in a specific country can enrich theories, developed for general cases. Applying existing theories to a new context also goes a long way in verification and potential falsification – the fundamental requirement for a scientific process. This article aims to contribute to the debate on the topic of policy advisory system by comparing the development of three policies in Russia, each involving policy advisors to some extent. Based on this analysis, lessons are drawn regarding the conditions under which policy advisors can impact policy changes in an environment, alternative to “western.”     

The effects of pre-IPO corporate activity on newly-public firms' growth

We investigate firms' pre-IPO corporate activity. We find that firms involved in extraordinary – i.e., beyond momentum – amounts of acquisitions, JVs, and alliances in the year leading up to their IPOs (1) are more likely to engage in post-IPO corporate activity; and (2) enter into their first post-IPO transaction twice as fast as other firms. Our results indicate that signaling via extraordinary corporate activity can have a significant effect on entrepreneurial firms’ growth. The implications are discussed.     

Stillbirth in Australia 1: The road to now: Two decades of stillbirth research and advocacy in Australia

Stillbirth is a major public health problem with an enormous mortality burden and psychosocial impact on parents, families and the wider community both globally and in Australia. In 2015, Australia’s late gestation stillbirth rate was over 30% higher than that of the best-performing countries globally, highlighting the urgent need for action. We present an overview of the foundations which led to the establishment of Australia’s NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence in Stillbirth (Stillbirth CRE) in 2017 and highlight key activities in the following areas: Opportunities to expand and improve collaborations between research teams; Supporting the conduct and development of innovative, high quality, collaborative research that incorporates a strong parent voice; Promoting effective translation of research into health policy and/or practice; and the Regional and global work of the Stillbirth CRE. We highlight the first-ever Senate Inquiry into Stillbirth in Australia in 2018. These events ultimately led to the development of a National Stillbirth Action and Implementation Plan for Australia with the aims of reducing stillbirth rates by 20% over the next five years, reducing the disparity in stillbirth rates between advantaged and disadvantaged communities, and improving care for all families who experience this loss.     

Narrating Sustainability in Canadian Health Care Reform Discourse

In Canada, as in other industrialized welfare states, definitions of health system sustainability reflect different goals and correspondingly diverse ways of understanding exactly what is to be sustained and how. In this article, we report on results from a survey of documents and groups involved in and/or concerned about sustainability of the healthcare system. We identify four broad narratives of sustainability in Canadian healthcare reform discourse, and explore what these different sustainability narratives tell us about the character and contours of these often‐fractious debates. We argue that sustainability itself may not be a paradigm shift, as has been suggested, but a plot device that helps to steer the story in a particular direction, ‘black‐boxing’ certain aspects of context and emphasizing others.     

The impact of internal communication on strategic and economic effects in Serbian companies

This paper presents the research results in relation to examining and defining dependences and the impact of internal communication on certain strategic and economic business effects. Serbian companies were the focus of this research. The data were collected by polling 100 managers from 100 companies. Afterwards, multivariate regression and correlation was carried out in the aim of the final determination of requested dependences. This research confirmed a strong positive relation between internal communication and strategic and economic business effects.     

茂名海洋可持续开发法律问题研究

《广东茂名滨海新区总体规划》的通过，标志着寄托茂名未来梦想的滨海新区的建设蓝图已然绘就。茂名滨海新区建设过程中，海洋资源处于核心地位。海洋资源的可持续开发将是茂名打造未来世界级石化产业基地的保障。海洋资源的可持续开发利用离不开政策与法律的维系与支持。文章重点分析了茂名滨海新区海洋资源可持续开发过程存在的法律问题及其法律对策。     

青春文学的崛起

＂青春文学＂的崛起是新世纪以来中国文坛最靓丽的景观之一。以＂80后＂为主体的青春文学作家,创作了一大批风靡国内的、以青少年为消费群体的文学作品,并在文学市场上取得令前辈作家侧目的成绩。从崛起到分化,再到逐渐成熟,青春文学走过了一段波澜壮阔的历程,成为和＂纯文学＂并峙的文学种类。尽管青春文学还显稚嫩,但随着青春文学作家的成长,我们有理由相信他们能写出无愧于时代的作品。     

Family structure and the economic wellbeing of children in youth and adulthood

An extensive literature on the relationship between family structure and children’s outcomes consistently shows that living with a single parent is associated with negative outcomes. Few US studies, however, examine how a child’s family structure affects outcomes for the child once he/she reaches adulthood. We directly examine, using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, whether family structure during childhood is related to the child’s economic wellbeing both during childhood as well as during adulthood. We find that living with a single parent is associated with the level of family resources available during childhood. This finding persists even when we remove time invariant factors within families. We also show that family structure is related to the child’s education, marital status, and adult family income. Once we control for the child’s demography and economic wellbeing in childhood, however, the associations into adulthood become trivial in size and statistically insignificant, suggesting that the relationship between family structure and children’s long-term, economic outcomes is due in large part to the relationship between family structure and economic wellbeing in childhood.