朝核危机根源的建构主义分析

朝鲜核问题自上世纪爆发以来,虽经过六轮六方会谈和多轮双边会谈却仍一波三折难以解决,在此期间朝进行地下核试验并试射导弹成功,成为事实上的核国家。朝鲜认为发展核武器事关国家的生存发展等基本权利,而其他相关国家则认为半岛无核化更符合本国利益。就建构主义基于共有观念的解释来看,朝美双方共有观念是敌人,朝鲜与日本和韩国的共有观念也是敌人,朝鲜与中国的传统型友好关系也在框架内进行调整与再适应,与俄罗斯则形成了冷淡的邻居。因此,朝鲜实际上处于霍布斯式无政府状态中,要想获得生存和安全必须依靠自助。     

试析驻朝鲜苏联军事管制机构(1945—1948)

1945—1948年,具有自身组织结构特点的驻朝鲜苏联军事管制机构是苏联朝鲜政策的主要执行者。它以卫戍司令部为基层组织、以各道苏联顾问为联系中介、以北朝鲜苏联民政局为中心机关开展工作。     

甲骨文中的四方

通过植物形态及作物遗传育种的研究与文献资料的相互印证,认定甲骨文的东西南北四方是用薏苡的形态学及植物地理学特征来描述和象形,是薏苡图腾崇拜的反映。     

Generalized additive modelling of sample extremes

Summary.  We describe smooth non-stationary generalized additive modelling for sample extremes, in which spline smoothers are incorporated into models for exceedances over high thresholds. Fitting is by maximum penalized likelihood estimation, with uncertainty assessed by using differences of deviances and bootstrap simulation. The approach is illustrated by using data on extreme winter temperatures in the Swiss Alps, analysis of which shows strong influence of the north Atlantic oscillation. Benefits of the new approach are flexible and appropriate modelling of extremes, more realistic assessment of estimation uncertainty and the accommodation of complex dependence patterns.     

何思源与山东抗战

何思源对山东抗战发挥的作用和影响，应以历史唯物主义的态度进行分析与评价。他积极宣传抗日救亡，促进南京政府与山东当局的相互信任；坚持敌后抗战，维持国民党政权在山东的战略存在，都是值得充分肯定的。收复山东时，他努力扩张国民党势力，阻碍了山东民主革命形势的发展。     

北方塑料暖棚牛舍的设计原理及结构

本文利用冬季太阳高度角最小、夏季太阳高度角最大、太阳高度角随纬度变化而变化这一原理，设计了北方塑料暖棚牛舍，确定牛舍棚面角的计算公式为C＝B—h（B为50°临界值，h为太阳高度角），使合外温度达-20—-30℃时舍内温度可达7℃─8℃以上。     

关于虢国历史的几个问题

虢国是西周初期分封的姬姓诸侯国,从西周早期的康王至春秋前期的鲁僖公五年,见于文献及西周金文记载,只有虢公及虢仲、虢叔称谓。自班固提出三虢之说后,历史上曾出现过五个虢国的看法,但学者们一般认为有三虢。实际上西虢是采邑,北(南)虢和东虢才是封国,即"两虢"说较合乎实际。     

义和团运动期间国内政治分野

义和团运动期间,当北方朝廷为恢复旧有统治对八国联军宣战时,南方督抚背离朝廷旨意与列强联手“互保“,南地绅士及知识界则以召开“国会”、举行起义等更为激进的方式对朝廷的举措表示反对。这种大致以南、北为界的政治分野的出现源于经济上的南富北穷、文化心态上的南新北旧、政治控制上的南松北紧。清朝廷在庚子年间的出格举动则是促使这种政治分野公开表现的直接原因。     

The impact of citizen evaluation review on community mental health center programs

A field study of techniques for involving local citizens in the evaluation of Community Mental Health Center (CMHC) services shows that lay citizens can make recommendations that service agencies will use to improve services. Seventeen citizen groups received evaluation information from participating CMHCs and developed 310 recommendations. Seventy-one percent of these suggestions were used by the CMHCs. Staff and governing board attitudes, fiscal pressures, and other organizational characteristics affected the success of the citizen groups.     

Archival data in program evaluation and policy analysis

Evaluators have typically avoided using existing data sets, choosing instead to collect their own information to maintain control over both the content and quality of the data. As demands on action researchers increase without provision for additional resources, primary data collection may become a luxury and the use of archival data may increase. Though archival data has practical and methodological advantages, there are limitations associated with the utilization of such information. The general problems with secondary data sources include the accuracy, acceptability and accessibility of the information. Following a discussion of these general problems, an example from the Civilian Health and Medical Program of the Uniformed Services (CHAMPUS) reimbursement data set is presented to illustrate specific difficulties with using archival data for evaluation research. Strategies are then presented for minimizing these difficulties, including determining the feasibility of utilization of such data sources, methods for assessing their accuracy and factors to consider in the data acquisition process.