Constructing case vignettes for evaluating clinical judgment: An empirical model

Studies of clinical judgment are frequently based on analogue research, which uses experimenter-controlled stimuli to elicit judgments. The stimuli may be live models, audio- or video-taped models, or written case vignettes describing a clinical encounter. A major challenge of analogue research is to construct stimuli that maintain a balance between experimental rigor and clinical reality. An ideal set of case vignettes, for example, will contain summaries that resemble actual case histories and that are varied only on the specific clinical factors being studied. The model presented here demonstrates the empirical development of written case analogues in which several variables are studied simultaneously. The model can be adapted to any setting in which professionals are required to make judgments or decisions about individuals. The vignettes described here have been used in a variety of clinical settings to assess the reliability of clinicians'judgments and to aid in evaluation and program planning.     

Consistent price determination of income and production: A singular equation system applied to the MPS model

In this article we present a general methodology that can be used to estimate a singular equation system of relative prices for a large disaggregated macroeconometric model (MPS). The accounts consistency requirements and the necessity to utilize distributed lag restrictions and to impose a serial correlation structure on the estimated model make these sum constraints rather cumbersome. Estimates of the MPS model and multiplier analysis illustrate the use of these constraints on a large forecasting model as well as the feasibility of the technique.     

The GOAT1 effects impact upon educational R and D

The GOAT (Goodbye To All That) Effect is introduced as a special research and evaluation “outcome” effect characterizing decision-making unduly influenced by abandoning “write-off” tendencies, especially in the face of mounting problems. GOAT behavior can enter into educational decision-making all too easily because it finds a congenial atmosphere in education's habit of fluctuating with the latest trends and vogues and because it can use the prevailing systems analysis approach in much of educational management and evaluation as a blind. The “gradual refinement” approach offers an antidote to the GOAT Effect primarily because it is a fundamentally different approach from systems analysis and directly opposes the faddish orientation of current education.     

Optimum spacings of elementary treatment contrasts in symmetrical 2-factor pa block designs

The concept of optimum spacing of an arbitrary group of treatments was introduced by Sinha and Sinha (1969) in a study of the relative efficiencies of a group of block designs. In this paper, the optimum spacings of elementary treatment contrasts in a 2-factor symmetrical block design with Property A are studied using the A-optimality criterion. Conditions for optimum spacings are expressed in terms of the relative magnitudes of the efficiency factors.     

Quality of life assessment and drug abuse treatment program evaluation

Quality of life assessment is used as an outcome measure technique to evaluate a central medical intake (CMI) unit for drug treatment programs. While significant improvements across time are evident in both perceived well-being and in the standard federal funding criteria, no differences are observed between those referred into treatment by the CMI and those entering directly. Moreover, the improvements observed are the same regardless of whether the patient stayed in treatment or not.     

The case study evaluation: A means for managing organizational and political tensions

This study of evaluation utilization identified organizational, political, and practical arrangements which facilitated wide use of The Interim Report Evaluation in policy making for California's Early Childhood Education program. In a program fraught by tensions, where evaluations had been political tools, this evaluation was special. The research used a field study approach. Analysis was guided by literature on organizations, policymaking, and evaluation utilization. It identified techniques for maintaining political support, marshalling organizational resources, and designing and disseminating an evaluation that used an ethnographic approach and that was directly applied to policy deliberations. Such techniques have significance when evaluators and researchers need to convince policymakers of their worth. This case study adds to knowledge of the research/policy intersect, on ethnographic evaluation, and on state education policymaking.     

Should policymaking account for market expectations? An estimate of their impact on commodity policy

Costs and effects of commodity price stabilization will depend on private price expectations, and these price expectations do respond to changes in public policy. Past empirical studies assumed that price expectations did not incorporate policy constraints on price. The following article examines the implications of correcting this weakness in earlier studies. Substantial differences in estimates of stabilization con result from this improvement in methodology.     

Empirical aspects of protectionism: LINK results

General aspects of protectionism as they are revealed or treated in the LINK system are discussed in this paper. Attention is focused on the macroeconomic aspects of protection, about which relatively little is known: most of the vast body of knowledge on this subject concerns the microeconomic aspects of protection. Some simulations of trade liberalization (opposite of protectionism) and of protection within the context of the LINK system are reported. A movement away from protection would benefit the present world economy but not by a large enough extent to deal effectively with pressing international economic problems; therefore, trade liberalization within the context of a larger program of coordination policy among major industrial countries is examined. Finally, the relationship between protectionism and inflation is explored.     

Simulation of a debtor country: The example of Colombia

A dynamic model, illustrated on Colombian data, simulates the functioning of an open economy under specified parametric conditions and selected policy scenarios. Unlike the usual two-sector models, the rate of growth of GDP is generated endogenously. Whereas related models perform sensitivity analysis for variations in parameters our procedure makes n possible to simulate policy alternatives under balance-of-payments pressure. The simulations explore the implications of policy options when debt services on inherited and new foreign indebtedness act as constraints on the debtor's growth, especially when new external borrowing is limited.     

Social area analysis in program evaluation and planning

This article defines social area analysis and identifies its conceptual roots and principal applications. By reviewing the uses of demographic data among several disciplines, the utility of social area analysis is assessed. The authors cite and briefly review the seminal and most recent contributions to the field. Several types of ecological fallacies and other problematic facets of social area analysis are considered, as well as specific issues in the derivation of statistical inferences from cross-level and same-level areal and case data.