Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case

In foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) free countries, the occurrence of an FMD outbreak is a rare event with potentially large economic losses. We explore the dynamic effects of an FMD outbreak on market variables and economic surplus taking into account the largely neglected issue of farm bankruptcy. Simulations are performed on a stylized agricultural economy, which is a net exporter before the outbreak. We find complex dynamic market effects when the farm credit market suffers from information imperfections leading to farm closure. Welfare effects are also dramatically altered. Domestic consumers may lose in the long run from an FMD outbreak because domestic supply contracts. On the other hand, farmers able to resist this event may ultimately gain. Our analysis also shows that these effects are not monotone, making any efficient policy response to this catastrophic event quite challenging.     

Affective and Cognitive Factors Influencing Sensitivity to Probabilistic Information

In study 1 different groups of female students were randomly assigned to one of four probabilistic information formats. Five different levels of probability of a genetic disease in an unborn child were presented to participants (within‐subject factor). After the presentation of the probability level, participants were requested to indicate the acceptable level of pain they would tolerate to avoid the disease (in their unborn child), their subjective evaluation of the disease risk, and their subjective evaluation of being worried by this risk. The results of study 1 confirmed the hypothesis that an experience‐based probability format decreases the subjective sense of worry about the disease, thus, presumably, weakening the tendency to overrate the probability of rare events. Study 2 showed that for the emotionally laden stimuli, the experience‐based probability format resulted in higher sensitivity to probability variations than other formats of probabilistic information. These advantages of the experience‐based probability format are interpreted in terms of two systems of information processing: the rational deliberative versus the affective experiential and the principle of stimulus‐response compatibility.     

A case–control study relating railroad worker mortality to diesel exhaust exposure using a threshold regression model

A case–control study of lung cancer mortality in U.S. railroad workers in jobs with and without diesel exhaust exposure is reanalyzed using a new threshold regression methodology. The study included 1256 workers who died of lung cancer and 2385 controls who died primarily of circulatory system diseases. Diesel exhaust exposure was assessed using railroad job history from the US Railroad Retirement Board and an industrial hygiene survey. Smoking habits were available from next-of-kin and potential asbestos exposure was assessed by job history review. The new analysis reassesses lung cancer mortality and examines circulatory system disease mortality. Jobs with regular exposure to diesel exhaust had a survival pattern characterized by an initial delay in mortality, followed by a rapid deterioration of health prior to death. The pattern is seen in subjects dying of lung cancer, circulatory system diseases, and other causes. The unique pattern is illustrated using a new type of Kaplan–Meier survival plot in which the time scale represents a measure of disease progression rather than calendar time. The disease progression scale accounts for a healthy-worker effect when describing the effects of cumulative exposures on mortality.     

性病隐喻与两性身体叙事——中国现代文学中的“性病”意象探析

性病是中国现代文学中最典型的疾病意象之一，对性病的关注涉及对妓女生活的想象，而性别文化身份的差异在对妓女的叙事上体现为两种不同的身体叙事方式。男性主体的中心意识使文学创作更多地表现为人民伦理的宏大叙事，体现着“民族一国家”的“大意义”；女性的历史边缘处境使女性书写更多地呈现为自由伦理的私人叙事，作为一种“小意义”而存在着。对于文学作品中出现的性病，宏大叙事侧重于把女性身体编织进政治、道德、历史的意义圈，强调女性身体的公共性；私人叙事强调性病之于女性的私人经验，呈现女性身体的私人性。     

论《沉沦》的“病态叙事”

试图通过对《沉沦》中郁达夫有意识无意识的“病态叙事”，来发掘小说的深刻内蕴；指出在郁达夫的作品中，主人公大都是“有病”的人，作者采取了“病态叙事”这种方式来展现和表达自己的内心痛苦，从而揭示五四一代先进知识分子普遍的痛苦和绝望。     

灭虫丁和敌百虫同用治疗家兔螨病试验

将患螨病的家兔24只随机分成3组,每组8只,Ⅰ组以灭虫丁注射液O.2mg/kg皮下注射1次,Ⅱ组用2％敌百虫溶液外擦,每天2次,连续3d,Ⅲ组则前两种方法都用,考察疗效及增重情况。结果表明:用药后14d,Ⅲ组疗效最好,平均增重140g,差异极显著。     

妨害传染病防治罪的立法缺陷及其补救

对妨害传染病防治罪存在的立法问题作出评述,提出该罪的可罚范围有待拓宽、行为方式有待明确、与刑法其他罪名需要进一步衔接及统一、刑罚设置上有待进一步完善。     

643例老干部健康体检患病情况分析

目的探讨影响老干部健康的主要疾病及预防策略。方法采用常规健康体检方法对我区643例老(≥60岁)干部进行全面体检及心电图、血液生化指标的检查,并以同时进行体检的1147例老年前期(50～59岁)干部作为对照。结果高脂血症、脂肪肝、高血糖、肾结石、高血压和前列腺增生为这些人群中患病率较高的前六位疾病。老年组中脂肪肝、高血压、高血糖和前列腺增生的患病率均高于老年前期组(P<0．05-0．005),高脂血症和肾结石的患病率在两组间均无显著性差异(P>0．05)。老年组心电图和超声心动图检查出现心肌缺血的改变均多于老年前期组(均P<0．005)。结论诸如高血压、高血糖等动脉硬化的高危因素在老年人中常见,定期健康体检是早期防治心血管疾病的有效方法。     

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Low- or Zero-Prevalence Countries: The Example of Norway

A predictive case-cohort model is applied to Norwegian data to analyze the interaction between challenge and stability factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during the period 1980-2010. For each year, the BSE risk in cattle is estimated as the expected number of cases. The age distribution of expected cases as well as the relative impact of different challenges is estimated. The model consists of a simple, transparent, and practical deterministic spreadsheet calculation model, in which the following country-specific inputs are entered: (i) annual imports of live cattle and meat and bone meal, (ii) age distribution of native cattle, and (iii) estimated annual basic reproduction ratio (R(0)) for BSE. Results for Norway indicate that the highest risk of BSE cases was in 1989, when a total BSE risk of 0.13 cases per year was expected. After that date, the year-to-year decrease in risk ranged between 3% and 47%, except for a secondary peak in 1994 at 0.06 cases per year. The primary peak was almost entirely (99%) attributable to the importation of 11 cattle from the United Kingdom between 1982 and 1986. The secondary peak, in 1994, originated mainly from the recycling of the U.K. imported cattle (92%). In 2006, the remaining risk was 0.0003 cases per year, or 0.001 per million cows per year, with a maximal age-specific incidence of 0.03 cases per million per year in 10-year-old cattle. Only 15% of the cases were expected in imported cattle. The probability of having zero cases in Norway in 2006 was estimated to be 99.97%. The model and results are compared to previous risk assessments of Norway by the EU.     

Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.