Conditional Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decision Making: The Case of WIPP

Uncertainty analyses and the reporting of their results can be misinterpreted when these analyses are conditional on a set of assumptions generally intended to bring some conservatism in the decisions. In this paper, two cases of conditional uncertainty analysis are examined. The first case includes studies that result, for instance, in a family of risk curves representing percentiles of the probability distribution of the future frequency of exceeding specified consequence levels conditional on a set of hypotheses. The second case involves analyses that result in an interval of outcomes estimated on the basis of conservative assumptions. Both types of results are difficult to use because they are sometimes misinterpreted as if they represented the output of a full uncertainty analysis. In the first case, the percentiles shown on each risk curve may be taken at face value when in reality (in marginal terms) they are lower if the chosen hypotheses are conservative. In the second case, the fact that some segments of the resulting interval are highly unlikely—or that some more benign segments outside the range of results are quite possible—does not appear. Also, these results are difficult to compare to those of analyses of other risks, possibly competing for the same risk management resources, and the decision criteria have to be adapted to the conservatism of the hypotheses. In this paper, the focus is on the first type (conditional risk curves) more than on the second and the discussion is illustrated by the case of the performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. For policy-making purposes, however, the problems of interpretation, comparison, and use of the results are similar.     

A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO PLANT-LOCATION DECISIONS*

The paper addresses the problem of plant location in the formal context of decision making under uncertainty and presents a framework employing Bayesian analysis in the collection and assessment of information. As a general model, the Bayesian approach is shown to subsume two practical approaches common to plant-location literature: satisficing and spatial hierarchy of plant-site characteristics.     

中国共产党早期媒介批评实践与思想论略

中国共产党早期媒介批评是中国共产党媒介批评史的源头,它的产生在一定程度上是政治论战的结果和需要,受到蓬勃发展的中国现代新闻传播事业的润泽和苏俄党报理论的影响。回顾、检讨和批评党内在宣传领域的种种不正确的表现,对外国侵略者利用新闻媒体干涉中国主权进行文化侵略的揭露和批判,是中国共产党早期媒介批评的重要内容,其特色是长于从新闻报道的政治性、全面性、真实性角度分析新闻传播现象。     

《电厂金属材料》课程教学改革初探

通过对《电厂金属材料》这一课程教学现状的初步分析,认为该课程的教学必须更新观念,优化内容,转变体系,在教材建设、教学手段等方面作一些相应的改革.     

南方方言更接近古汉语的几个原因

从地理上的差异、时间是主要的原因、北方常受外族入侵和国内战争、动乱引起的民族大迁移、交际和乡土根性等四个方面分析南方方言更接近古汉语的原因     

A Probabilistic Approach to Assess External Doses to the Public Considering Spatial Variability of Radioactive Contamination and Interpopulation Differences in Behavior Pattern

Dose assessment is an important issue from the viewpoints of protecting people from radiation exposure and managing postaccident situations adequately. However, the radiation doses received by people cannot be determined with complete accuracy because of the uncertainties and the variability associated with any process of defining individual characteristics and in the dose assessment process itself. In this study, a dose assessment model was developed based on measurements and surveys of individual doses and relevant contributors (i.e., ambient dose rates and behavior patterns) in Fukushima City for four population groups: Fukushima City Office staff, Senior Citizens’ Club, Contractors’ Association, and Agricultural Cooperative. In addition, probabilistic assessments were performed for these population groups by considering the spatial variability of contamination and interpopulation differences resulting from behavior patterns. As a result of comparison with the actual measurements, the assessment results for participants from the Fukushima City Office agreed with the measured values, thereby validating the model and the approach. Although the assessment results obtained for the Senior Citizens’ Club and the Agricultural Cooperative differ partly from the measured values, by addressing further considerations in terms of dose reduction effects due to decontamination and the impact of additional exposure sources in agricultural fields, these results can be improved. By contrast, the measurements obtained for the participants from the Contractors’ Association were not reproduced well in the present study. To assess the doses to this group, further investigations of association members’ work activities and the related dose reduction effects are needed.     

Applications and Implementation: AN EXPERIMENTAL COMPARISON OF CELLULAR (GROUP TECHNOLOGY) LAYOUT WITH PROCESS LAYOUT

This study compares different strategies for arranging machines in a facility. Computer simulation of two different machine shops was used to compare process layout (the arrangement of groups of machines where the machines within a group are interchangeable) to cellular layout designed using group technology concepts (the use of manufacturing cells where each cell contains different types of machines dedicated to the production of similar parts). Four layout strategies, including process layout, cellular layout, and two hybrid layouts, were compared in two machine-shop models. The shops that used cellular layouts had shorter setup times, lower machine utilization, and shorter distances traveled, on average. The shops with process layout, however, had better performance on queue-related statistics such as work-in-process inventory level and average flow time. This suggests that a well-organized traditional job shop may be able to achieve overall performance that at least is comparable to that of the same shop using cellular (group technology) layout.     

论蒙古族动植物崇拜文化

起源于远古时代的动植物崇拜在蒙古人的生活中占有重要的地位。直到现在这种崇拜现象依然能在他们的日常生活的各个方面找到踪影。究其根源，是蒙古族原始信仰与现实生活需要所致。     

"北京人文科学研究所"筹建始末——20世纪上半叶日本对华文化侵略之典型一例

"北京人文科学研究所"是日本政府利用"庚款"在华建立的研究机构,也是日本政府为了扩大在华势力而实施的"对支文化事业"在华活动的重要一环。中国文化人认清了日本政府的企图,坚决反对"对支文化事业"。围绕该研究所的建立,日本政府与中国的文化教育界产生了严重对立。双方产生矛盾的根本在于"庚款"的退还与否和使用方式。"北京人文科学研究所"是日本外务省为了能够顺利开展"对支文化事业"而设立的"文化"招牌,也是日本扩大在华势力、对华实施文化侵略的工具之一。     

基于数据挖掘的入侵检测系统研究

文章基于数据挖掘技术,针对当前入侵检测系统的不足,把数据挖掘技术应用到入侵检测系统中,并给出系统模型,论证了这种模型的理论价值和现实可行性.