Estimating household structure in ancient China by using historical data: a latent class analysis of partially missing patterns

Summary.  Social data often contain missing information. The problem is inevitably severe when analysing historical data. Conventionally, researchers analyse complete records only. Listwise deletion not only reduces the effective sample size but also may result in biased estimation, depending on the missingness mechanism. We analyse household types by using population registers from ancient China (618–907 AD) by comparing a simple classification, a latent class model of the complete data and a latent class model of the complete and partially missing data assuming four types of ignorable and non-ignorable missingness mechanisms. The findings show that either a frequency classification or a latent class analysis using the complete records only yielded biased estimates and incorrect conclusions in the presence of partially missing data of a non-ignorable mechanism. Although simply assuming ignorable or non-ignorable missing data produced consistently similarly higher estimates of the proportion of complex households, a specification of the relationship between the latent variable and the degree of missingness by a row effect uniform association model helped to capture the missingness mechanism better and improved the model fit.     

一种求解双目标线性规划的方法及其在上海市土地使用和交通方面的应用

本文介绍了一种求解双目标线性规划(SBLP)的方法.根据上海市土地使用与交通的现状建立了一个拟动态的模型(BOLT),并用该方法加以求解。根据得到的解对上海市土地使用与交通相互作用的情况进行了分析。     

梯玛“求子”仪式中的符号化空间——以剪纸“天门”为中心

梯玛仪式“玩菩萨”中的剪纸、绘画使用了大量的形象性符号,包括剪纸天门、天梯、天钱、纸人纸伞、穿衣儿粑粑、神案等,考察其在堂中各自的位置、数量、用色及形式,从艺术形态学和美术人类学的角度出发,结合梯玛自己的解释和在仪式中的具体作用,同时与其他民族民间同类剪纸做比较,对“玩菩萨”仪式中的图像符号做深入的分析。并以“求子”一节为例,分析符号组成空间,符号在特定的空间情境中产生意义,阐明民间神圣符号在组成仪式空间情境中的作用,研究剪纸、绘画等符号在空间情境中意义的转换,体现出民间艺术、民间思维中象征性的特点。     

中国出入境管理体制的抉择

近年来,出入中国边境口岸的人员和货物陡增,与国际社会出入境管理体制相比较,中国的出入境管理体制还欠完善.具体表现为专属中央管理的出入境事务由各级公安部门代为管理,公安部门的属地管辖、多层管理导致区域化壁垒、政令不畅;同时,公安、外交部门在护照管理上信息不通,多头执法,易产生管理漏洞.为与国际移民法接轨构建科学的出入境管理体制,中国应尽早出台<出入境法>;改革现有的多头管理体制,争取在北京奥运会前,逐步将全国出入境管理统一置于中央政府监管之下;利用<护照法>刚刚出台之契机,统一出入境证件种类和发放程序,增加并细化签证类别,简化出入境手续;重视人员素质提升,实现从管理职能向服务职能的目标转变.     

South African Indian migration in the twenty-first century: towards a theory of ‘triple identity’

This paper is inspired by three issues, namely ongoing research on South Africans of Indian origin, the anecdotal evidence that accumulates through ongoing discussions on a casual level with such people and the increasing interest among researchers about how globalization and transnational movements are impacting upon identity formation among minorities who are seeking employment or a new life in the developed economies of the ‘big five’ English-speaking countries, i.e. the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK. It is in countries such as these that a third identity emerges and develops to instill a sense of triple identity. The information here suggests that, when people of Indian origin migrate to one of these countries, they continue to cling to South Africa because it is their country of birth, as well as to India, more for sentimental rather than practical reasons. The topic of this paper reflects a contemporary phenomenon not just among the Indians in South Africa, but also among other diasporas such as Chinese in Latin America, whose new and final emigration destination always seems to be the US. In addition, people of Chinese origin in the countries of Indochina, such as Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, experienced similar patterns of becoming diasporas in Europe, North America and Oceania in the 1970s. However, migration implores them to renegotiate their identities in order to adapt and settle in accordance with their newly adopted host territories. This gives rise to an identity that straddles three countries, which induces the need to examine new ways of identity building in a global transnational economy.     

迁徙自由与户籍管理改革

迁徙自由的权利是基于人类固有尊严而应为人人所享有的,以《中华人民共和国户口登记条例》为依据的中国户籍制度在事实上将这项权利取消了。这种户籍管理制度所产生的不公平及对我国市场经济的发展造成的不利影响不容小视,所以当前改革户籍管理制度,确认并设立公民的迁徙自由权利显得必要而迫切。     

Local spatial data infrastructure, Trujillo-Peru

The development of a Municipal Information System, or currently better known as a local spatial data infrastructure, is considered complex due to the required inter-institutional relationships. In many developing countries Geographical Information Systems (GISs) are introduced but the benefits are modest as no changes take place in technical and organisational structure of organisations. Digital databases and computer-aided design (CAD) maps are mushrooming in great variety within different private and public institutions, municipal organisations and even within single departments and with structures similar to the paper period and thus operating on a stand-alone basis.Many national mapping agencies are not able to provide large-scale digital urban base maps, while the absence or low quality of cadastres makes those basic core data sets unavailable or inaccessible. The result is that duplication and incompatible data are frequently observed and also donor-driven stand-alone projects have a limited impact through the lack of institutional embedding and are not able to mature from the project to the institutional level. However, a positive sign is that there is an increasing awareness among data producers and consumers that investments in the development of digital data sets should be combined to reduce costs and increase benefits from especially GIS, and information and communication technology (ICT) in general.Within Trujillo a long-term vision was developed to make full use of ICT and GIS to modernise all operations of the Municipality to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of its tasks. However, large investments are not feasible due to the very limited municipal budgets. To guarantee the support of the municipal council, short-term results are required. This paper describes three ‘products’ as part of the vision to develop through a step-by-step approach a local spatial data infrastructure for Trujillo.The three, rather different, products are:

1. fiscal cadastre, to increase municipal revenues through property taxation;

2. an ‘environmental atlas’ based on a compatible spatial and attribute data sets from a variety of organisations; and

3. a municipal website with interactive GIS and meta data information.

The paper concludes with some comments on the institutional and political requirements for the successful development of a local spatial data infrastructure and stresses that such an infrastructure is not a product but an incremental development process that will progress only in case such a process is simple, cost effective, user-friendly, and flexible with clear products.Political interest and institutional stability and genuine interest for inter-institutional cooperation will add much to the success of this process.     

经济全球化影响下的中国计划生育发展趋势

中国的计划生育是在计划经济体制下形成的,其特点多数与经济全球化的规则有着较大的差距。因此,经济全球化和中国加入世贸组织对中国计划生育的影响是全面而深刻的。在经济全球化的影响下,中国计划生育的发展趋势主要体现在六个方面。     

An individual measure of relative survival

Summary.  Relative survival techniques are used to compare survival experience in a study cohort with that expected if background population rates apply. The techniques are especially useful when cause-specific death information is not accurate or not available as they provide a measure of excess mortality in a group of patients with a certain disease. Whereas these methods are based on group comparisons, we present here a transformation approach which instead gives for each individual an outcome measure relative to the appropriate background population. The new outcome measure is easily interpreted and can be analysed by using standard survival analysis techniques. It provides additional information on relative survival and gives new options in regression analysis. For example, one can estimate the proportion of patients who survived longer than a given percentile of the respective general population or compare survival experience of individuals while accounting for the population differences. The regression models for the new outcome measure are different from existing models, thus providing new possibilities in analysing relative survival data. One distinctive feature of our approach is that we adjust for expected survival before modelling. The paper is motivated by a study into the survival of patients after acute myocardial infarction.     

民族大迁移造就了北京城

民族大迁移 ,尤其是少数民族大迁移造就了北京城。辽、金、元、明、清五朝 ,均有民族大迁移。尤其是明清两朝 ,均将北京的前朝居民迁移出去 ,本族居民迁移进来。在今天的北京 ,辽代契丹人留下了天宁寺塔 ,金代女真人遗下金太液池的一汪清水 ,元代蒙古人的胡同和六海水系还在沿用 ,明代汉族工匠建成了宫殿、长城和十三陵 ,清代精美的皇家园林和王府建筑后人至今无法企及。