叙利亚与伊朗准联盟关系浅析

自伊朗霍梅尼革命以来,叙利亚就与伊朗在政治、军事和安全领域保持着准联盟关系。27年来,叙伊准联盟关系经历了产生、发展和成熟三个阶段,其构建的基础主要是共同的安全利益,分别为:对抗伊拉克萨达姆政权、制衡土以军事联盟和抗衡美以特殊关系。伊战后,美国推行“大中东计划”,指责叙伊准联盟关系是美国民主改造中东国家的绊脚石。面临美国的打压,叙伊针锋相对,进一步密切了关系。2006年7月爆发的黎以冲突是叙伊同美以两大对抗派别矛盾激化的结果。为分化和瓦解叙伊准联盟,美国采取拉拢叙利亚、遏制伊朗的“区别对待”战略。未来叙伊两国正式结盟对抗美国的可能性不大,但只要两国面临共同的安全威胁,其准联盟关系就会存在下去。叙伊准联盟关系在一定程度上遏止了美以在中东推行的霸权主义,客观上也为其他大国中东外交提供了更多的回旋余地。     

当前的伊朗国家安全：环境与对策

随着2006年3月伊朗核问题被国际原子能机构提交给联合国,伊朗核危机愈演愈烈,美国和伊朗的冲突也随之升级,战争的威胁再次降临到伊朗人头上,伊朗的国家安全正处于危急之中。自1979年伊朗伊斯兰共和国成立后,伊朗国家安全环境一直比较恶劣,这更加重了伊朗目前所面临的压力。对伊朗而言,企图通过联合其他国家和地区共同对抗或制衡美国的策略不会有什么实质性成效,其自身的力量也不足以在战场上战胜美国。在如此严峻的情势下,伊朗的国家安全只能寄托于现政权在核问题上做出妥协,这也是目前伊朗的最佳选择。     

机遇与风险并存——中国与伊朗能源合作探讨

中伊两国油气合作具有良好的经济、政治基础,具有市场与资源的互补等方面的优势;从长远看也存在有各种风险与挑战。需要重视推进伊朗核问题和平解决,维护地区和平与发展;扩大相互投资合作;加强能源合作对话;保证中伊能源合作的长期顺利发展。     

Reordering Public and Private in Iranian Cyberspace: Identity,Politics, and Mobilization

The capacity of cyberspace to bypass some of the spatial divisions that underpin social inequality endows it with political significance. This article examines some of the ways in which cyberspace has contributed to redrawing the boundaries between public and private and some of the consequences of this for people, things, and ideas in Iran and the Iranian diaspora. It shows how cyberspace influences a wide range of political phenomena including political mobilization and censorship, intergenerational communication, identity formation, sexuality, sense of belonging, and forms and location of symbolic capital. The relationship between net users in the diaspora and cyberspace involves a circuit of reorderings of one's understanding of the diaspora, one's contact with it in cyberspace, of one's own ideas on the basis of what one finds there, and of social relationships established and maintained in cyberspace. Paradoxically, the very richness and diversity of the ideas and opinions found in Iranian cyberspace may undermine the idea of there actually being a single Iranian diaspora.     

Radical Changes in the Muslim World: Turkey,Iran, Egypt

This piece engages with contemporary revolutions from the perspective of religion. Religion has played a significant role in mobilizing peoples in Turkey, Iran, and even Egypt. I examine the Arab spring by suggesting that these movements point to radical changes in the Muslim World by paying close attention to revolutions in Turkey, Iran, and Egypt. I argue that religion has acted as resource of mobilization in Muslim societies by showing that systematically through Turkey and Iran. However, with the Egyptian revolts we see a challenge to the dominance of that resource and a desire to seek other resources as forces of mobilization. The article concludes by offering a provocation to the Muslim insurgents and the entire Muslim world: to rekindle the legacy of the great Muslim philosophers and social-political thinkers, and to connect it with the aspirations of contemporary democratic thought and practice.

Esta pieza se ocupa de las revoluciones contemporáneas desde una perspectiva de la religión. La religión ha jugado un papel importante en la movilización de personas en Turquía, Irán e incluso en Egipto. Yo analizo a la primavera árabe, mediante la sugerencia de que estos movimientos apuntan a cambios radicales en el mundo musulmán, prestando mucha atención a las revoluciones en Turquía, Irán e incluso en Egipto. Sostengo que la religión ha actuado como un recurso de movilización en las sociedades musulmanas demostrándolo sistemáticamente a través de Turquía e Irán. Sin embargo, con las revueltas de Egipto, vemos un reto a la dominación de ese recurso y un deseo de buscar otros recursos como fuerzas de movilización. El artículo concluye con la oferta de una provocación de los insurgentes musulmanes y el mundo musulmán entero: para reavivar el legado de los grandes filósofos musulmanes y pensadores sociopolíticos, y para conectarse con las aspiraciones del pensamiento democrático contemporáneo y la práctica.

本文将宗教视点与当代革命结合了起来。宗教在土耳其、伊朗和埃及等国家的群众动员方面扮演着重要角色。我考察“阿拉伯之春”,指出这些运动通过对土耳其、伊朗和埃及革命的密切观察,指向了穆斯林世界的激进变革。我通过系统地剖析土耳其、伊朗两国案例,认为宗教在穆斯林社会中作为一种动员力量发挥了作用。然而,通过埃及的反叛,我们看到了对宗教作为支配力量的挑战和希望寻找其他资源作为动员力量的倾向。本文以向穆斯林反叛者和整个穆斯林世界提出诘问作结,即重新利用伟大的穆斯林哲学家和社会政治思想家们的遗产,再将之同当代民主思想与实践的追求连接起来。     

Event history modeling of world fertility survey data∗

Event history analysis seems ideally suited for the analysis of World Fertility Survey, WFS, data, which consists of full birth histories and related information, but it has not been much used for this purpose. This may be because event history analysis has practical drawbacks for WFS data, namely partial dates, computational burden, the need to take account of five clocks at once and the difficulty of interpreting coefficients.

We propose a modeling strategy for the event history analysis of WFS data which overcomes these problems, and we apply it to the previously unanalyzed WFS data from Iran. This yields estimates of the time of onset of fertility decline and the extent to which it was due to compositional changes in the population. It also enables us to determine whether it was a period effect, a cohort effect, or both. These results would have been hard to obtain using other approaches. In addition, the usefulness of ACE as an exploratory tool for determining the best coding of independent variables is illustrated.     

Breaking with English: the nation as ethnoscape1

Broken English and the bone people, a New Zealand film and novel respectively, fall into the category of nation‐building texts. Many narratives in this ‘genre’ accomplish cultural reunification through the family. However, these two works are particularly intriguing because they use land and specific spaces in order to work through these transcultural shifts as they are played out within the main characters' relationships. ‘Breaking with English’ is therefore not only a linguistic concept, but also a metaphor for the transculturation of bodies and land undertaken throughout these two titles.     

伊朗介入中东地区事务的动力及限度

近年来,伴随中东变局的演化以及伊朗与域内外国家间关系的复杂变化,代理人战争成为伊朗地区战略的重要政策工具。为应对不同对手,伊朗在海湾地区、阿拉伯半岛南部和地中海东岸地区分别扶持不同的代理人,并形成了三个次级战略板块。伊朗推行代理人战争的动力主要包括通过代理人战争制衡与掣肘美国、以色列、沙特等全球及地区对手;巩固与扩大本国在中东地区的战略影响力;避免与对手直接开战,实现以最低成本获取最大化收益的战略目标。然而,受代理人能力与战略意愿的改变、国内政局以及民众支持度变化、对手反制和新冠疫情等因素的影响,伊朗推行代理人战争存在明显限度,代理人战争的效果不应被过度夸大。     

伊朗人口政策的演变及特点

1979年伊朗伊斯兰共和国建立后,伊朗政府根据自身民族宗教文化和政治经济现实,不断调整本国的人口政策;先鼓励人口生育,提倡早婚早育,增强本国人力资源储备;两伊战争结束后,鉴于本国资源与环境压力,通过提倡和鼓励的柔性办法减少人口生育,并取得举世瞩目的成效;2005年以后,由于人口增长率下降过快,为了预防将来的老龄化危机,伊朗逐步取消限制生育的政策,目前基本改为鼓励人口生育,但在城市化和现代化的压力下,随着教育水平的提高,人们的生育愿望很低,生育成本加大,人口增长不会太快.     

A first-digit anomaly in the 2009 Iranian presidential election

A local bootstrap method is proposed for the analysis of electoral vote-count first-digit frequencies, complementing the Benford's Law limit. The method is calibrated on five presidential-election first rounds (2002–2006) and applied to the 2009 Iranian presidential-election first round. Candidate K has a highly significant (p<0.15% ) excess of vote counts starting with the digit 7. This leads to other anomalies, two of which are individually significant at p～ 0.1% and one at p～ 1%. Independently, Iranian pre-election opinion polls significantly reject the official results unless the five polls favouring candidate A are considered alone. If the latter represent normalised data and a linear, least-squares, equal-weighted fit is used, then either candidates R and K suffered a sudden, dramatic (70%±15% ) loss of electoral support just prior to the election, or the official results are rejected (p～ 0.01% ).