基于Levy-GARCH模型的上证50ETF市场跳跃行为与波动特征研究

上证ETF50期权的发行推动学界开始关注其标的资产的波动特点。本文引入带跳跃的Levy-GARCH非高斯条件异方差模型,结合Fourier数值极大似然估计及回溯测试,对上证50ETF的跳跃和波动特征进行实证分析,并与上证综指、深证成指进行比较。研究结果表明,与国内主要市场指数相比,上证50ETF市场同样存在显著的条件异方差效应和随机跳跃行为,但波动率并不存在显著的杠杆效应。本文通过与多个市场和行业指数进行对照比较,并从行业特征、成份股特征、市场机制特点等角度解释了上证50ETF杠杆效应不显著的原因。     

Americans’ Views of Voluntary Protective Actions Against Zika Infection: Conceptual and Measurement Issues

Understanding factors affecting decisions by people to protect themselves, or not, is critical to designing supportive communications. Here, threat, protective‐action, and stakeholder perceptions were evaluated for effects on mainland Americans’ behavioral intentions regarding Zika in April 2017, as postulated by the Protective Action Decision Model. Although all three perception types (including a novel resource sufficiency measure) affected intentions, these relationships varied widely depending upon the method used to measure adoption of actions (e.g., total count of all behaviors adopted vs. behavior‐specific analyses), the behaviors involved, and whether analysis focused on the full sample or only on people who had a reasonable opportunity to enact the behavior or who believed it relevant to their lives. There was a general contrast between mosquito control actions (removal of mosquito breeding areas and pesticide spraying) and travel‐related behaviors (avoiding travel to areas of local transmission of the virus, protecting oneself from mosquito bites after potential exposure, and practicing safe sex after potential exposure). Reported action or inaction during the 2016 mosquito season, and stages of behavior change, were both elicited in January–February 2017; both drove intentions in April 2017 for the upcoming season, although direct and indirect effects varied widely. Collectively these findings present theoretical, measurement, and practical implications for understanding, tracking, and promoting voluntary protective actions against hazards.     

When homophilous ties matter: Social network brokerage and individuals’ innovative behavior

Occupying a brokerage network position provides the focal actor with structural opportunities to access non-redundant information and knowledge which may result in an enhanced innovative behavior. However, such a network position entails important challenges associated with knowledge articulation and behavioral constraints, which may hinder focal actors’ innovative outcomes. Drawing on the contingency perspective of social capital theory, in this study, we examine how socio-demographic similarity between a focal actor and his/her direct contacts may affect the relationship between brokerage and innovative behavior. Specifically, we focus on professional background and gender as salient socio-demographic categories that depict the type of knowledge possessed as well as informational, and behavioral differences among people. The results of an empirical study on 134 employees (the response rate was 88%) and 31 supervisors (the response rate was 97%) of an Italian consulting company show that having many homophilous ties, in terms of professional background and gender, strengthens the positive relationship between social network brokerage and individuals’ innovative behavior. These findings furnish important insights for the research on intra-organizational social networks and innovative behavior. At the end of the paper, we discuss its theoretical and practical implications as well as the potential limitations that open avenues for future research in the field.     

国际组织自主性行为研究述评

国际组织自主性行为研究的兴起得益于国际制度基础性研究进展以及国际关系理论研究的社会化转向。考察国际组织自主性行为的主要路径有二:一是国家中心主义,二是国际组织中心主义。这两种分析框架对国际组织自主性进行了有益的学理探索,但每一种框架都存在难以克服的缺点,未能对国际组织自主性行为的根源和本质以及其对全球治理的现实意义作出让人满意的学理性解释。如何整合不同的分析框架,更加全面、深刻地认识国际组织自主行为的根源和本质及其对全球治理的现实意义,仍将是国际关系学者的重要研究课题。     

基于心理所有权的网络嵌入对在线品牌社群公民行为的影响研究

基于社会交换理论,从心理所有权角度研究网络嵌入与在线品牌社群公民行为的关系。通过对酷比魔方社群的394个样本调查发现:网络嵌入性(结构嵌入和关系嵌入)对心理所有权有积极影响;心理所有权对社群公民行为(有利品牌社群行为和有利社群成员行为)有积极影响;心理所有权在关系嵌入对有利品牌社群和社群成员行为的影响中存在部分中介作用,心理所有权在结构嵌入对有利品牌社群行为的影响中存在部分中介,而在对有利社群成员行为的影响中则是完全中介作用。     

北京市民农园参与者行为及满意度调查分析

市民农园以体验农业为主要形式,是当前都市农业发展的重要领域。参与者对市民农园服务品质的满意程度,表现了参与者预期与实际感受之间的差异。达到较高的参与者满意度,是市民农园获得长久竞争优势的关键。依据2012年8—10月对北京11家市民农园的48名参与者的问卷调查,对市民农园参与者的个人特征、行为状况和满意度进行了详细分析。研究发现:已婚、受教育程度高、中壮年、职业层次较高、中高收入人群是市民农园的主要参与者;参与目的主要是为了获得健康有机的食物、回归田园、体验耕作,以及亲子互动,多以家庭为单位,以种植蔬菜为主,信息来源主要是亲友介绍和网络;参与者对北京市民农园的整体满意度较高,但目前的市民农园在实体设施、服务水平等方面还有待改进。最后提出应开展特色营销,提高核心目标群的参与度,采取相关措施提升参与者的满意度等建议。     

基于顾客惰性行为的无理由退货策略研究

通过对加入了顾客惰性因素的无理由退货策略建立数学模型,发现当惰性顾客存在时,商家的最优销售价格为只考虑理性顾客时的标准价格与惰性损失之差;最优退货价格为产品的清货价格与边际惰性效用贡献率之和;与只考虑理性顾客的无理由退货策略相比,惰性在一定程度上会对销量产生负影响,但在相同环境下却能为商家带来更多的利润.     

老年人出行选择行为影响因素研究

研究老年人出行选择行为影响因素,有利于提高城市交通系统对老龄化社会的适应性。根据北京市居民出行调查数据,利用非集计理论和方法构建的老年人出行选择行为模型,可从源头上分析影响老年人出行选择行为的个人、家庭社会经济背景等因素,并对老年人出行选择行为进行预测。研究结果表明:性别,年龄,是否持有驾照、月票,家庭月收入,家庭交通工具拥有情况等对老年人出行选择行为有显著影响;利用模型估计得到的参数计算事件发生比,可进一步了解各影响因素对老年人出行选择行为的影响程度。     

误导行为的法律规制

误导行为是国际公认的一种典型的不正当竞争行为和损害消费者权益的行为,但是我国法律对误导行为的立法却极不完备。指出了我国目前立法在误导行为的法律界定、一般性条款、构成要件和法律责任4个方面存在的缺陷或漏洞,并就此提出一些建议。     

股票分析师的羊群行为对公司股价同步性的影响分析

股价"同涨同跌"是我国股票市场的一种重要现象。多股集体"暴跌"会给公司和投资者造成严重的损失,因而股价同步性的问题受到监管者和学术界的广泛关注。本文以2010-2017年股票分析师对上市公司做出的预测为主要研究对象,验证了股票分析师的羊群行为与公司股价同步性间的关系,讨论了机构投资者和市场情绪的作用机制。实证结果表明我国股票分析师的羊群行为是"非信息驱动"的真羊群行为,这种行为降低了市场上的特质信息含量,从而增加了公司的股价同步性。上述关系在熊市中更为显著,并且分析师与机构投资者之间的利益冲突会加剧其羊群行为对股价同步性的影响。本文的研究对理解如何降低股价崩盘风险、提高我国股票市场的信息传递效率具有十分重要的理论和实践意义。