Are lay theories of work stress related to distress? A longitudinal study in the British workforce

The potential stressfulness of an event may depend on how it is appraised by the individual, although up to now there have been no longitudinal studies on the relationship between lay beliefs concerning work stress and perceived strain. This longitudinal study examines how lay theories of work stress at baseline were related to perceived mental strain at follow up. The present paper builds on an earlier study (Furnham, 1997), using a longitudinal design and a much larger population of the British workforce (N=2270). Lay beliefs were assessed by a scale consisting of 36 items. Factor analysis gave a solution with five factors on perceived causes and four factors of perceived alleviation of work stress. Linear multiple regression analysis revealed significant relations between lay beliefs of work stress at baseline and perceived mental strain as well as job stress 14 months later. The effect sizes were small but of a similar magnitude to those that have been found, for example, in occupational stress-reducing interventions. A problem with the factor analytic approach was the discrepancies between the factor solutions and the relative importance of the perceived causes of work stress. The results from the study suggest that subjective beliefs about work stress merits further analysis as potentially mediating between 'objective' working conditions and stress outcomes.     

神经网络用于精确预言含F铋系高温超导的T_C

本工作通过选取适当的拓朴结构,特别是对零电阻转变温度 T_c 的数据采用压缩与还原的技术处理,建立了一个基于误差反向传播(简记为 B-P)算法的人工神经网络。该网络可根据制备含 F 铋系高温超导材料的几个主要实验参数,相当精确地预言此类超导体的 T_c。本方法显然具有一般意义,从而有力地促进了材料的计算机辅助设计的研究工作,使之进一步趋于成熟。     

要素替代、要素市场与农地流转——一个农地撂荒分析框架

农地撂荒影响我国粮食安全,需要引起政府重视。基于已有研究,提出农地撂荒分析框架:农地撂荒是农户在诸多局限约束下基于自身利润最大化的选择,关键是局限的调查与分析,重点是对农地流转市场和基于农户劳动力和资金两要素替代的生产资料服务市场、农业劳动力市场进行研究。通过分析河南省某村季节性撂荒案例,考察其局限条件及局限转变成本,得出结论为该村撂荒最有效的对策是发展整合性的农资和农业劳动力服务市场,促进纵向一体化;而该村将要推行的"百亩种植大户"对策成本高、效果差。     

当代建筑的人文观照

当代中国的建筑活动中,开发商的纯商业动机和行政长官的政治目的的不同使得投资者、建筑师和业主之间的权责关系混乱,从而使得建筑行为忽略和遗忘了人,使得建筑业陷入了困境。只有在建筑行为中树立"以人为本"的行业作风,建立评价建筑的人文尺度,才能使当代中国的建筑走出困境。     

Factor Analysis: An Overview

The basic underlying theory of factor analysis is presented and the results of an empirical study are reproduced and interpreted to illustrate application of the technique.     

齐次微分方程的解的存在性

研究了一阶齐次微分方程的求解问题,证明了这类方程的解的存在性.     

经济政策不确定性是否降低了全球技术溢出强度:基于货物贸易与服务贸易的对比分析

本文采用20个国家及地区细分类型的货物贸易和服务贸易双边数据,对比研究不同贸易类型技术溢出对进口国全要素生产率的影响,并进一步分析出口国经济政策不确定性是否会降低技术溢出的作用强度。结果显示:一方面,货物及服务进口贸易引致的技术溢出显著促进了母国相对全要素生产率的提升,服务进口贸易技术溢出作用强度为0.0432,比货物进口贸易高77.8%,且两者作用强度经检验存在显著差异,这意味着服务贸易已成为全球技术溢出更为重要的载体;另一方面,加入经济政策不确定性指数后发现,各类贸易溢出仍能显著促进进口国相对全要素生产率的提升,但是经济政策不确定性显著降低了技术溢出作用的强度,服务进口的贸易技术溢出作用强度所受影响比货物进口高95.5%。本文的研究结果表明,适当对进口贸易结构进行纠偏,挑选经济政策不确定性较低的出口伙伴国是强化我国进口技术溢出吸收的关键。     

Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters

ABSTRACT

We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of various economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time measure of uncertainty surrounding subjective forecasts in a simple framework. We jointly model and estimate macroeconomic (common) and indicator-specific uncertainties of four indicators, using a factor stochastic volatility model. Our macroeconomic uncertainty estimates have three major spikes has three major spikes aligned with the 1973–1975, 1980, and 2007–2009 recessions, while other recessions were characterized by increases in indicator-specific uncertainties. We also show that the selection of data vintages affects the estimates and relative size of jumps in estimated uncertainty series. Finally, our macroeconomic uncertainty has a persistent negative impact on real economic activity, rather than producing “wait-and-see” dynamics.     

大众化传播中的大众主体性

马克思主义大众化传播本质上是传受双发、平等双向的思想互动过程。大众的能动性、自主性和自为性是马克思主义大众化传播的内生动力源泉,应通过建立健全相应传播机制,增强传受双方主体意识、主体能力,发展完善传受双方主体人格,以不断提升马克思主义大众化传播的科学化水平。     

辽宁省基本公共服务发展评价

在量化区域基本公共服务均等化发展水平之前,首先应对该区域的基本公共服务发展状况有总体的把握。本文用因子分析方法对辽宁省基本公共服务发展现状进行了评价,发现辽宁省的基本公共服务事业发展良好,处于全国领先水平,尤其是在人民的社会保障和医疗方面取得了较好的成果,但在环境保护方面投入较少,工业污染治理效果较差。