Residual analysis for spatial point processes (with discussion)

Summary.  We define residuals for point process models fitted to spatial point pattern data, and we propose diagnostic plots based on them. The residuals apply to any point process model that has a conditional intensity; the model may exhibit spatial heterogeneity, interpoint interaction and dependence on spatial covariates. Some existing ad hoc methods for model checking (quadrat counts, scan statistic, kernel smoothed intensity and Berman's diagnostic) are recovered as special cases. Diagnostic tools are developed systematically, by using an analogy between our spatial residuals and the usual residuals for (non-spatial) generalized linear models. The conditional intensity λ plays the role of the mean response. This makes it possible to adapt existing knowledge about model validation for generalized linear models to the spatial point process context, giving recommendations for diagnostic plots. A plot of smoothed residuals against spatial location, or against a spatial covariate, is effective in diagnosing spatial trend or co-variate effects. Q – Q -plots of the residuals are effective in diagnosing interpoint interaction.     

An individual measure of relative survival

Summary.  Relative survival techniques are used to compare survival experience in a study cohort with that expected if background population rates apply. The techniques are especially useful when cause-specific death information is not accurate or not available as they provide a measure of excess mortality in a group of patients with a certain disease. Whereas these methods are based on group comparisons, we present here a transformation approach which instead gives for each individual an outcome measure relative to the appropriate background population. The new outcome measure is easily interpreted and can be analysed by using standard survival analysis techniques. It provides additional information on relative survival and gives new options in regression analysis. For example, one can estimate the proportion of patients who survived longer than a given percentile of the respective general population or compare survival experience of individuals while accounting for the population differences. The regression models for the new outcome measure are different from existing models, thus providing new possibilities in analysing relative survival data. One distinctive feature of our approach is that we adjust for expected survival before modelling. The paper is motivated by a study into the survival of patients after acute myocardial infarction.     

On Block Updating in Markov Random Field Models for Disease Mapping

Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) models are commonly used to model spatial correlation in disease mapping applications. For Bayesian inference by MCMC, so far mainly single-site updating algorithms have been considered. However, convergence and mixing properties of such algorithms can be extremely poor due to strong dependencies of parameters in the posterior distribution. In this paper, we propose various block sampling algorithms in order to improve the MCMC performance. The methodology is rather general, allows for non-standard full conditionals, and can be applied in a modular fashion in a large number of different scenarios. For illustration we consider three different applications: two formulations for spatial modelling of a single disease (with and without additional unstructured parameters respectively), and one formulation for the joint analysis of two diseases. The results indicate that the largest benefits are obtained if parameters and the corresponding hyperparameter are updated jointly in one large block. Implementation of such block algorithms is relatively easy using methods for fast sampling of Gaussian Markov random fields ( Rue, 2001 ). By comparison, Monte Carlo estimates based on single-site updating can be rather misleading, even for very long runs. Our results may have wider relevance for efficient MCMC simulation in hierarchical models with Markov random field components.     

彩票的法学解析

彩票是国家为筹集社会公益资金而发行的供人们自愿购买并据以取得获奖机会的凭证。汇集闲散资金,造福社会公益事业,是彩票的本质特征,也是彩票的道德生命和法律生命所在。彩票具有国家性、财产性、合同性、社会性等法律性质。彩票运作中包含着多重法律关系,其核心问题是发行人与购彩人之间的权利、义务如何配置。     

Nonparametric smoothing in the analysis of air pollution and respiratory illness

While most of epidemiology is observational, rather than experimental, the culture of epidemiology is still derived from agricultural experiments, rather than other observational fields, such as astronomy or economics. The mismatch is made greater as focus has turned to continue risk factors, multifactorial outcomes, and outcomes with large variation unexplainable by available risk factors. The analysis of such data is often viewed as hypothesis testing with statistical control replacing randomization. However, such approaches often test restricted forms of the hypothesis being investigated, such as the hypothesis of a linear association, when there is no prior empirical or theoretical reason to believe that if an association exists, it is linear. In combination with the large nonstochastic sources of error in such observational studies, this suggests the more flexible alternative of exploring the association. Conclusions on the possible causal nature of any discovered association will rest on the coherence and consistency of multiple studies. Nonparametric smoothing in general, and generalized additive models in particular, represent an attractive approach to such problems. This is illustrated using data examining the relationship between particulate air pollution and daily mortality in Birmingham, Alabama; between particulate air pollution, ozone, and SO₂ and daily hospital admissions for respiratory illness in Philadelphia; and between ozone and particulate air pollution and coughing episodes in children in six eastern U.S. cities. The results indicate that airborne particles and ozone are associated with adverse health outcomes at very low concentrations, and that there are likely no thresholds for these relationships.     

《新青年》与《甲寅》月刊之历史渊源—《新青年》创刊史研究之一

1915年9月创刊的《新青年》，在其创刊之初，与《甲寅》月刊之间，在主编，撰稿人队伍，发刊宗旨，栏目设置，刊物风格等方面存在着很深的渊源关系，清理它们之间的这种关系，有助于更深入而全面地认识五四新文化运动的形成和发展。     

建设社会主义民主政治必须正确处理五种关系

建设社会主义民主政治是我国政治改革与政治发展的重要目标 ,然而在当前的新形势下我国政治改革与政治发展的步伐明显滞后于经济发展。该文从分析政治现象本身入手 ,较全面地阐述了政治的阶级性与政治的人民性、政治的现代性与政治的传统性、政治的理论性与政治的现实性、以德治国与依法治国、民主的宏观性与民主的微观性等五种关系 ,指出在政治改革与政治发展进程中 ,惟有正确认识和处理这五种主要关系 ,才能澄清认识上的误区 ,有效地推进我国社会主义民主政治建设     

贝娄小说中知识分子夫妻之间的权力关系

美国诺贝尔文学奖得主索尔·贝娄小说中知识分子夫妻之间的权力关系有三种模式 :竞争、控制、平等 ;两种性质 :压抑性和生产性。作者在小说中 ,对压抑性的权力关系作否定、贬抑的描绘 ;对生产性的权力关系作肯定、赞美的描述。贝娄的小说通过揭示男女知识分子之间的权力关系 ,突出了这些女性人物本身的知识品格和职业道路。     

重视调整投资与消费的关系

西方经济大国的经验和我国发展经济的实践,都证明当前必须调整投资和消费的关系,实践科学的经济发展观。新疆尤其应当重视这个问题,以缩小与全国平均水平的差距。适当降低投资率和提高消费率、降低政府消费的比重、加大对三农的财政支持力度等,应是当前亟须解决的问题。     

Trends in online media relations: Web-based corporate press rooms in leading international companies

An analysis of 120 corporate websites from Denmark, France, Germany, Norway, Singapore, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States reveals, for the first time, international results about the implementation and use of virtual press rooms. This article shows the importance that large international companies attribute to Web-based media centers to achieve organizational objectives and to meet journalists’ demands for information and audiovisual resources. The study also shows, however, that most press rooms are far from being complete, efficient, easy-to-use, reliable and updated on a daily basis. In fact, there is not a single country from those analyzed that consistently stands out from the rest. In most of them, good results in certain areas coexist with significant shortcomings in others, resulting in some cases in poor press rooms that may not achieve the desired public relations objectives.