独立学院应用性人才培养模式的构建与探索

独立学院是我国现行高教体制的突破与革新，既不同于传统的公办普通高校，又有别于已有的民办高校和职业技术学院。随着高等教育大众化，面对着竞争愈演愈烈的人才市场，独立学院如何在高等教育竞争中的勇立潮头，赢得一席之地，必须就“独立学院应用性人才培养模式的构建”进行认真的研究与探索，根据社会对人才需求呈现出多样化趋势的实际，找准学院定位，明确办学理念，理清办学思路，创新培养模式，全力打造“应用性”人才。     

Employment and filial relations: Is there a conflict?

Since children, particularly daughters, are among the most important sources of help and support for older Americans, it has been suggested that women's increasing employment will affect filial relations. Empirical evidence on this issue is inconsistent, in part due to the use of nonprobability samples. Few studies have measured effects for men. We attempt to broaden the scope of this question beyond help to the frail elderly by asking whether employment affects filial relations in general. We examine effects of hours employed on telephone contact, visiting, feelings of closeness, filial attitudes, and assistance to biological parents, for an area probability sample of men and women over 40. There are no effects of employment for men or women on contact, closeness, or assistance. For the vast majority of this population sample, contact and assistance involve few hours per week, and thus do not seem to conflict with employment.     

论知识基本属性间的辩证关系

文章论述了知识的真理性的相对性与条件性及知识的确定性、随机性与模糊性的相互联系,指出知识发展的最高成就是科学(自然科学与社会科学)与技术,人们应运用辩证唯物主义和历史唯物主义的观点和方法分析知识基本属性的辩证关系,到实践中去探索、研究和运用知识,为人类文明与进步提供智力支持。     

ADDITIVE MODELS WITH PREDICTORS SUBJECT TO MEASUREMENT ERROR

This paper develops a likelihood‐based method for fitting additive models in the presence of measurement error. It formulates the additive model using the linear mixed model representation of penalized splines. In the presence of a structural measurement error model, the resulting likelihood involves intractable integrals, and a Monte Carlo expectation maximization strategy is developed for obtaining estimates. The method's performance is illustrated with a simulation study.     

An empirical likelihood goodness-of-fit test for time series

Summary. Standard goodness-of-fit tests for a parametric regression model against a series of nonparametric alternatives are based on residuals arising from a fitted model. When a parametric regression model is compared with a nonparametric model, goodness-of-fit testing can be naturally approached by evaluating the likelihood of the parametric model within a nonparametric framework. We employ the empirical likelihood for an α -mixing process to formulate a test statistic that measures the goodness of fit of a parametric regression model. The technique is based on a comparison with kernel smoothing estimators. The empirical likelihood formulation of the test has two attractive features. One is its automatic consideration of the variation that is associated with the nonparametric fit due to empirical likelihood's ability to Studentize internally. The other is that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is free of unknown parameters, avoiding plug-in estimation. We apply the test to a discretized diffusion model which has recently been considered in financial market analysis.     

国内外公共突发事件应对研究述评

本文分别回顾了中外有关社会公共突发事件应急和企业危机管理的研究过程,从纷繁的研究文献中概括了有关突发事件应急的研究框架,认为对突发事件应急的研究可以归纳为静态系统和动态过程两个方面。近十几年来的研究重点主要放在了动态过程的研究上,而对静态系统的研究相对比较薄弱。     

Some Notes on Workplace Equality Renewal in the Swedish Labour Market

In 2001, Swedish authorities imposed a new obligation upon all firms with ten or more employees to undertake annual wage surveys, ‘workplace equality audits’ in which it is possible to ascertain, remedy and prevent unwarranted wage differentials and other unfair employment terms between men and women. An important implication of the new system, called ‘workplace equality renewal’ (självsanering), is that, at the level of the firm all Swedish employers must explain what they mean by work of ‘equal value’ as opposed to ‘different value’. This article discusses the practical pros and cons of the new system, and considers how the surveys can be used in research into the present state of gendered work division. A main finding is that the introduction of this new legislation in the long run might change the Swedish industrial relations system as well as the preconditions for many companies’ human resource management policies. Yet, neither the governmental agencies involved nor the parties’ confederate organizations have been able to clarify what the issue is really about to the single, small business employer or to the local trade union branches. Many employers find any interference, whatever it may be, threatening and trade unions have not realized the potentialities of the system from an employee perspective, potentialities connected to the fact that companies are now more or less forced to make transparent their wage policies at large.     

辽朝汉族文人心态透视

辽朝的汉族文人是辽境内高水平文化的负载者,其生存状态和心理状态对本朝文学的影响十分显著。对他们的社会心理进行研究有着重要的学术意义。辽朝汉族文人的政治态度在前期呈离心趋势,至中期则表现为向心趋势,辽亡前后则以灵活性、变通性为主要特征。民族关系的变动是影响汉族文人心态的最基本的因素。     

Pseudo–Modelling of Outliers for Estimation of Regression And Time Series Models

This paper documents situations where the variance inflation model for outliers has undesirable properties. The model is commonly used to accommodate outliers in a Bayesian analysis of regression and time series models. The alternative approach provided here does not suffer from these undesirable properties but gives inferences similar to those of the variance inflation model when this is appropriate. It can be used with regression, time series, and regression with correlated errors in a unified way, and adheres to the scientific principle that inference should be based on the data after obvious outliers have been discarded. Only one parameter is required for outliers; it is interpretable as the a priori willingness to remove observations from the analysis.     

Exposure Reconstruction for the TCDD-Exposed NIOSH Cohort Using a Concentration- and Age-Dependent Model of Elimination

Recent studies demonstrating a concentration dependence of elimination of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) suggest that previous estimates of exposure for occupationally exposed cohorts may have underestimated actual exposure, resulting in a potential overestimate of the carcinogenic potency of TCDD in humans based on the mortality data for these cohorts. Using a database on U.S. chemical manufacturing workers potentially exposed to TCDD compiled by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), we evaluated the impact of using a concentration- and age-dependent elimination model (CADM) (Aylward et al., 2005) on estimates of serum lipid area under the curve (AUC) for the NIOSH cohort. These data were used previously by Steenland et al. (2001) in combination with a first-order elimination model with an 8.7-year half-life to estimate cumulative serum lipid concentration (equivalent to AUC) for these workers for use in cancer dose-response assessment. Serum lipid TCDD measurements taken in 1988 for a subset of the cohort were combined with the NIOSH job exposure matrix and work histories to estimate dose rates per unit of exposure score. We evaluated the effect of choices in regression model (regression on untransformed vs. ln-transformed data and inclusion of a nonzero regression intercept) as well as the impact of choices of elimination models and parameters on estimated AUCs for the cohort. Central estimates for dose rate parameters derived from the serum-sampled subcohort were applied with the elimination models to time-specific exposure scores for the entire cohort to generate AUC estimates for all cohort members. Use of the CADM resulted in improved model fits to the serum sampling data compared to the first-order models. Dose rates varied by a factor of 50 among different combinations of elimination model, parameter sets, and regression models. Use of a CADM results in increases of up to five-fold in AUC estimates for the more highly exposed members of the cohort compared to estimates obtained using the first-order model with 8.7-year half-life. This degree of variation in the AUC estimates for this cohort would affect substantially the cancer potency estimates derived from the mortality data from this cohort. Such variability and uncertainty in the reconstructed serum lipid AUC estimates for this cohort, depending on elimination model, parameter set, and regression model, have not been described previously and are critical components in evaluating the dose-response data from the occupationally exposed populations.