语篇中的语气分析及研究

语言是一种交际工具,作为人际意义的语气在交际过程中起非常重要的作用,使用不同的语气可能会产生截然不同的效果。文章从语境暗示、人际关系、连贯性和交际目的等方面阐述了语篇中语气的选择。第一部分阐述语气和语境的关系;第二部分阐述语气如何体现人际关系;第三部分阐述语气如何达到语篇中的连贯性;第四部分阐述语气的选择与交际的目的。其目的在于阐明选择恰当的语气,能实现有效的交际。     

日本国民心理对中日关系影响的分析及对策

日本人心理的二重性和不确定性,是近年来中日关系亲和度不断降低的重要原因,它直接影响中日关系的正常发展。对待中日关系我们除了要坚持原则、据理力争,维护国家和人民的利益,还要采取理性的态度,从大局出发,把国家利益奉为最高原则,正确对待历史认识问题。地缘的安全稳定及经济的互利合作等多方面因素,要求两国国民必须端正心态,正视彼此已变化了的现实,加强沟通,增进理解,谋求双赢。     

Semiparametric linear transformation models for current status data

Current status data arise when the death of every subject in a study cannot be determined precisely, but is known only to have occurred before or after a random monitoring time. The authors discuss the analysis of such data under semiparametric linear transformation models for which they propose a general inference procedure based on estimating functions. They determine the properties of the estimates they propose for the regression parameters of the model and illustrate their technique using tumorigenicity data.     

基于Simpson公式改进的FAGM(1,1)模型及其应用研究

本文分析了传统FAGM（1,1）模型建模过程中存在的误差,提出了一种基于Simpson公式改进的FAGM（1,1）模型。首先,基于分数阶累加生成算子和分数阶累减生成算子建立分数阶FAGM（1,1）模型。其次,利用Simpson积分公式对FAGM（1,1）模型的背景值进行改进,建立SFAGM（1,1）模型。进一步,应用遗传算法确定SFAGM（1,1）模型的最优阶数以提高模型的预测精度。最后,以中国人均GDP为例,对比分析GM（1,1）模型、Simpson改进的GM（1,1）模型（SGM（1,1））、FAGM（1,1）模型、SFAGM（1,1）模型的模拟结果,并对"十三五"时期的人均GDP进行预测,其结果表明SFAGM（1,1）模型比GM（1,1）、SGM（1,1）、FAGM（1,1）在人均GDP的预测方面有更高的精度,"十三五"期间人均GDP年平均增长率为10.64%,到2020年达到83146.97元,是2010年人均GDP的2.69倍,以2010年的人均GDP为基准,到2020年将能够实现翻一番的目标。     

What's wrong with sociology? Its public image

In response to editor Stephen Cole's question—"What's wrong with sociology?"—the answer is nothing that cannot be overcome by clearer communications and better public relations. The problem is that the field is not held in high esteem by college administrators, legislators, and the public. Many see us as rebels of the 1960s, political liberals, and impractical thinkers with a penchant for jargon. Even our research is derided by some as a waste of money. The solution consists of strategies for overcoming our poor public image. Seven strategies for doing so are discussed: (1) Write clearly. (2) Write for a mass audience. (3) Seek board positions. (4) Strengthen our identity. (5) Teach sociology in high school. (6) Develop academic partnerships. (7) Emphasize outcomes: increase in tolerance and research skills.     

A Population Approach to Analysis of Variance Models

Several authors have contributed to what can now be considered a rather complete theory for analysis of variance in cases with orthogonal factors. By using this theory on an assumed basic reference population, the orthogonality concept gives a natural definition of independence between factors in the population. By looking upon the treated units in designed experiments as a formal sample from a future population about which we want to make inference, a natural parametrization of expectations and variances connected to such experiments arises. This approach seems to throw light upon several controversial questions in the theory of mixed models. Also, it gives a framework for discussing the choice of conditioning in models     

Generalized Leverage and its Applications

The generalized leverage of an estimator is defined in regression models as a measure of the importance of individual observations. We derive a simple but powerful result, developing an explicit expression for leverage in a general M -estimation problem, of which the maximum likelihood problems are special cases. A variety of applications are considered, most notably to the exponential family non-linear models. The relationship between leverage and local influence is also discussed. Numerical examples are given to illustrate our results     

A Multivariate Model for Repeated Failure Time Measurements

A parametric multivariate failure time distribution is derived from a frailty-type model with a particular frailty distribution. It covers as special cases certain distributions which have been used for multivariate survival data in recent years. Some properties of the distribution are derived: its marginal and conditional distributions lie within the parametric family, and association between the component variates can be positive or, to a limited extent, negative. The simple closed form of the survivor function is useful for right-censored data, as occur commonly in survival analysis, and for calculating uniform residuals. Also featured is the distribution of ratios of paired failure times. The model is applied to data from the literature     

Spatial variation in risk of disease: a nonparametric binary regression approach

A common problem in environmental epidemiology is the estimation and mapping of spatial variation in disease risk. In this paper we analyse data from the Walsall District Health Authority, UK, concerning the spatial distributions of cancer cases compared with controls sampled from the population register. We formulate the risk estimation problem as a nonparametric binary regression problem and consider two different methods of estimation. The first uses a standard kernel method with a cross-validation criterion for choosing the associated bandwidth parameter. The second uses the framework of the generalized additive model (GAM) which has the advantage that it can allow for additional explanatory variables, but is computationally more demanding. For the Walsall data, we obtain similar results using either the kernel method with controls stratified by age and sex to match the age–sex distribution of the cases or the GAM method with random controls but incorporating age and sex as additional explanatory variables. For cancers of the lung or stomach, the analysis shows highly statistically significant spatial variation in risk. For the less common cancers of the pancreas, the spatial variation in risk is not statistically significant.