考虑保鲜努力与数量/质量弹性的农产品三级供应链协调优化

以供应具有季节性的农产品为研究对象,研究了由农户-第三方物流供应商（TPLP）-零售商组成的三级供应链协调问题。将农产品的数量和质量损耗均视为TPLP保鲜努力的内生变量,分别建立了分散与集中决策模式下的动态博弈模型。分析表明分散决策模式下供应链各成员的决策会导致产品销售量和销售价格扭曲,严重影响供应链绩效。针对三级供应链中的两个交易过程,并基于对系统中相关决策变量的变化及影响因素分析,分别设计了成本分担和收益共享协调契约,并论证了在一定条件下该组合协调机制可以显著扩大农产品的销售量,实现供应链各成员收益的帕累托改进。最后,通过算例验证了文章结论,并分析了努力水平对不同农产品质量和数量损耗的改善程度（数量/质量弹性）对农产品三级供应链决策及协调效果的影响。     

Information Systems Project Continuation in Escalation Situations: A Real Options Model

Software project escalation has been shown to be a widespread phenomenon. With few exceptions, prior research has portrayed escalation as an irrational decision‐making process whereby additional resources are plowed into a failing project. In this article, we examine the possibility that in some cases managers escalate their commitment not because they are acting irrationally, but rather as a rational response to real options that may be embedded in a project. A project embeds real options when managers have the opportunity but not the obligation to adjust the future direction of the project in response to external or internal events. Examples include deferring the project, switching the project to serve a different purpose, changing the scale of the project, implementing it in incremental stages, abandoning the project, or using the project as a platform for future growth opportunities. Although real options can represent a substantial portion of a project's value, they rarely enter into a project's formal justification process in the traditional quantitative discounted cash‐flow‐based project valuation techniques. Using experimental data collected from managers in 123 firms, we demonstrate that managers recognize and value the presence of real options. We also assess the relative importance that managers ascribe to each type of real option, showing that growth options are more highly valued than operational options. Finally, we demonstrate that the influence of the options on project continuation decisions is largely mediated by the perceived value that they add. Implications for both theory and practice are discussed.     

The effect of charismatic leaders on followers’ memory,error detection,persuasion and prosocial behavior: A cognitive science approach

Adopting a cognitive and follower-centric approach to charismatic leadership, we hypothesized that followers show lower levels of cognitive effort, reflected in superficial processing of factually correct information when listening to and viewing a charismatic leader. We conducted two experiments, using a 2 (charismatic versus neutral) × 2 (female versus male leader) between-subjects design and videos of trained actors delivering a speech. We examined the effects of leader charisma on (1a) followers’ ability to detect factually false information, (1b) accuracy to remember information from the leader (study 1, N = 100), (2a) the persuasiveness of factual messages, (2b) followers’ prosocial behavior and (2c) the mediating effect of the leader’s persuasiveness on followers’ prosocial behavior (study 2, N = 140). We did not find support for the effect of leader charisma on detecting false information, the persuasiveness of messages, or increased prosocial behavior among followers. We found an effect of leader charisma on memory. Participants recognized fewer messages in the charismatic compared to the neutral leader conditions. Exploratory analyses provided mixed results for an interaction effect of leader charisma and sex on detecting and remembering false information. Our studies offer first insights into the cognitive outcomes of the charismatic signaling process.     

Task Analysis for Industrial Work Process from Aspects of Human Reliability and System Safety

In the design, development, and manufacturing stage of industrial products, engineers usually focus on the problems caused by hardware or software, but pay less attention to problems caused by human error, which may significantly affect system reliability and safety. Although operating procedures are strictly followed, human error still may occur occasionally. Among the influencing factors, the inappropriate design of standard operation procedure (SOP) or standard assembly procedure (SAP) is an important and latent reason for unexpected results found during human operation. To reduce the error probability and error effects of these unexpected behaviors in the industrial work process, overall evaluation of SOP or SAP quality has become an essential task. The human error criticality analysis (HECA) method was developed to identify the potentially critical problems caused by human error in the human operation system. This method performs task analysis on the basis of operation procedure. For example, SOP, analyzes the human error probability (HEP) for each human operation step, and assesses its error effects to the whole system. The results of the analysis will show the interrelationship that exists between critical human tasks, critical human error modes, and human reliability information of the human operation system. To identify the robustness of the model, a case study of initiator assembly tasks was conducted. Results show that the HECA method is practicable in evaluating the operation procedure, and the information is valuable in identifying the means to upgrade human reliability and system safety for human tasks.     

基于供应链收益共享契约的格子铺经营机制优化分析

格子铺经营模式已引起理论者和实践者广泛关注.针对格子铺经营模式的合作问题,在努力因素影响需求的市场环境里,基于供应链视角,通过建模与优化,分析了节点企业的决策特征与策略选择,讨论了收益共享机制对格子铺经营模式的影响,研究表明单纯的收益共享机制,无法实现格子铺经营模式的整体绩效最优(即由格主、铺主参与的供应链合作机制的协调),不能够改善格子铺合作;当对租金收取机制进行调整,使其为促销、广告投入的一定比例时,收益共享机制可以实现合作的协调,进而达到改善格子铺经营的目的.     

基于收益共享契约的供应链质量控制与协调机制

研究了单个供应商和单个零售商构成的供应链中,零售商采用收益共享契约对供应链成员质量控制决策的协调作用。分析了使用收益共享契约、供应商与零售商合作、使用批发价格契约三种情况下供应链成员的博弈均衡,并进一步通过比较讨论了收益共享契约对于供应链成员质量控制的优势和局限。研究表明,当销售量的变化对产品质量改进的敏感程度较高时,收益共享契约的协调效果较好,但对于零售商来说,虽然其利润高于采用批发价格契约,可利润份额却有所下降,这意味着收益共享契约对供应商更有利。     

Testing for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels in the Presence of a Deterministic Trend: Re-examining the Unit Root Hypothesis for Real Stock Prices and Dividends

In this paper, we suggest a similar unit root test statistic for dynamic panel data with fixed effects. The test is based on the LM, or score, principle and is derived under the assumption that the time dimension of the panel is fixed, which is typical in many panel data studies. It is shown that the limiting distribution of the test statistic is standard normal. The similarity of the test with respect to both the initial conditions of the panel and the fixed effects is achieved by allowing for a trend in the model using a parameterisation that has the same interpretation under both the null and alternative hypotheses. This parameterisation can be expected to increase the power of the test statistic. Simulation evidence suggests that the proposed test has empirical size that is very close to the nominal level and considerably more power than other panel unit root tests that assume that the time dimension of the panel is large. As an application of the test, we re-examine the stationarity of real stock prices and dividends using disaggregated panel data over a relatively short period of time. Our results suggest that while real stock prices contain a unit root, real dividends are trend stationary.     

国民经济支柱产业的特征及选择——兼论对房地产支柱地位之质疑

支柱产业的选择对于经济欠发达国家实施区域经济发展战略极为重要,对于经济现代化和迅速缩短与发达国家的差距亦有着重要贡献。但是支柱产业的选择必须考虑战略性。文章试图通过对支柱产业的特征及选择依据的分析,基于投入产出分析说明中国如何战略性地选择支柱产业。同时以投入产出分析中的产业联系及格兰杰因果检验的实证分析,阐明将房地产作为支柱产业既不符合支柱产业的选择依据,现实也未对GDP有明显拉动作用。     

科学利用公权力职能 搞好社会环境文明建设——以海西主体福建省为案例探讨

社会环境文明是构建和谐社会不可缺少的有机组成部分,是社会文明主体生存和发展的社会条件。加快海西建设离不开社会环境文明这一必要条件。探究分析海西社会环境文明建设现状,找出存在的主要问题并提出解决问题的现实路径,这对构建和谐海西具有重大的实践指导意义。     

实数上限拓扑空间在拓扑教学中的应用

实数上限拓扑空间是一个简单、直观的拓扑空间．在拓扑学教学中，利用该拓扑空间可以淡化一些抽象的、逻辑性强的概念和理论，引导学生严密、深刻地思考问题，从而达到知识的完全理解和掌握．在总结教学经验的基础上，本文讨论实数上限拓扑空间在四个方面的应用．