我国高考科目及内容设置的三大依据

本文认为, 高考科目与内容设置应依据三个基本方面: 有利于高校选拔人才, 有利于促进中学素质教育, 有利于扩大高校办学自主权。本文就此问题进行了讨论, 试图为我国高考科目政策提供相应的理论参考框架     

唐代迁谪诗文述略

唐代遭受迁徙、贬谪之苦的众多诗人所创作的“迁谪诗文” ,是唐代文学不可或缺的重要组成部分。唐代的迁谪诗文颇能体现出迁谪文学的本质特点 ,对后世的迁谪文学的发展亦产生了深远的影响。     

The public and private purposes of case records

Social welfare agencies have official reasons and requirements for the construction of case records. Sociologists have detected a set of unofficial reasons that shape case records in practice. This paper suggests that case records that record the lives of children in child welfare systems are written, inter alia, to deny the failure of interventions, to justify the refusal to serve “bad clients,” and to justify the decision to extend hegemony over “good” clients.     

Quadratic estimation in mixed linear models with two variance components

Explicit expressions for Bayes invariant quadratic estimates, biased and unbiased, are presented and proved to cover the entire class of admissible estimates in the considered classes. An unbalanced genetic model is studied for demonstration.     

Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

Asymptotic properties of a generalized regression-type predictor of a finite population variance in probability sampling

A system of predictors for estimating a finite population variance is defined and shown to be asymptotically design-unbiased (ADU) and asymptotically design-consistent (ADC) under probability sampling. An asymptotic mean squared error (MSE) of a generalized regression-type predictor, generated from the system, is obtained. The suggested predictor attains the minimum expected variance of any design-unbiased estimator when the superpopulation model is correct. The generalized regression-type predictor and the predictor suggested by Mukhopadhyay (1990) are compared.     

Policy analysis in a socioeconomic model of basic needs applied to four countries

This article summarizes the results of a socioeconomic model of basic needs that was applied to four countries—Brazil, Colombia, India, and Kenya. A modeling approach was thought necessary in order to make more precise the concept of basic needs. Although the work has not been entirely successful in doing that, from the policy experiment attempted, and given the limitations of the models used, we believe that an approach centered on the provision of basic needs will help the poorest satisfy their needs more quickly than is possible under alternative approaches.     

The social “R & D” paradigm in child and youth services: Building knowledge convivially

Adaptation of agricultural and industrial research and development models offers new methods for bridging the worlds of research and practice in child and youth services. Social R & D methodologies provide effective means for generating new social technologies because they are product oriented and use a wide array of traditional and nontraditional data sources. This article discusses one social R & D paradigm—Developmental Research and Utilization. Permanency planning and community support systems research are used to illustrate the past and potential application of this methodology to the field of child and youth services.     

Food security, consumption diversification and foreign exchange balances in Indonesia: Results from a multi-commodity simulation

Many countries adopt economic development strategies, within which an important element is the maintenance of low and stable food prices. In Indonesia, this is achieved principally through government subsidies to consumers of imported rice, the total cost of which fluctuates considerably from year to year, depending on world price movements and domestic production performance. Higher and possibly less stable domestic food prices appear inevitable in Indonesia, however, as the spectre of reduced oil revenues increases the government's concern with the cost of its food policy. Results from a stochastic simulation model of the agricultural sector show that the food price risk to which consumers and producers would be exposed in the absence of the stabilizing component of Indonesia's food policy would be considerable, rendering this component an unlikely area for significant change. A viable policy option appears to be the continuance of rice and wheat price stabilization, but with a graduated increase in the relative price of rice, reaching a total of 10% by 1985. Such a policy could result in net self-sufficiency in foreign exchange from staple food trade by 1990 and an improvement in aggregate economic surplus, although the expected decade improvement in food-energy consumption per capita would fall from 10% to 8%.