DEVIL'S ADVOCACY AND DIALECTICAL INQUIRY EFFECTS ON PREDICTION PERFORMANCE: TASK INVOLVEMENT AS A MEDIATING VARIABLE

Critics of previous laboratory experiments comparing devil's advocacy (DA) to dialectical inquiry (DI) have suggested that these experiments produced misleading results because (1) they used subjects who had low levels of task involvement and (2) the DI treatment used was confusing to subjects and required further explanation to be useful. The present study examines the effects of four inquiry methods—expert (E), DA, DI, and DI with explanatory statement (DI+)—on subjects' performance at a financial prediction task. Results show that DA, DI, and DI + were superior to E when the state of the world differed significantly from assumptions underlying the expert's plan. For subjects with high task involvement, DI and DI + were more effective than E and DA. The results support some of the criticisms of previous laboratory research and suggest that future research on these decision aids should include task involvement as a factor.     

AN ANALYSIS OF CAPACITY PLANNING PROCEDURES FOR A MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING SYSTEM*

This paper is concerned with planning work-center capacity levels in manufacturing firms that employ a material requirements planning (MRP) system. It presents four procedures for developing work-center capacity plans designed to insure the production of components and assemblies as specified by the MRP plan and the master production schedule (MPS). These procedures (capacity planning using overall factors, capacity bills, resource profiles, and capacity requirements planning) are compared using simulation analysis. The results indicate that the performance of a procedure when measured against the MPS depends on the operating conditions of the manufacturing system. The results also indicate that the choice of a particular procedure often represents a compromise among the benefits of improved MPS performance, the costs of preparing and processing data, and the premium expenses required for more frequent adjustments in work-center capacity levels.     

论影响科技成果转化的非技术因素

科技已成为推进社会、经济发展的果转化中最为根本的影响因素.但随着经济、社会的发展,其他要素如风险投资、管理、知识产权、资金等对科技成果转化都会产生不同程度的影响.文章主要分析影响科技成果转化的非技术因素.     

晚清民国时期蔗糖业视野下的广西城镇经济网络

晚清民国时期,广西蔗糖业经历了繁荣、衰落再发展的轨迹,通过商人的经营活动促进了城镇经济网络和蔗糖业的楔合,蔗糖业的发展推动了城镇经济网络的发展。蔗糖业和城镇经济网络的楔合促进了民族经济融合。     

"男主女从":必须扬弃的等级观——《布洛陀经诗》的性别哲学研究之三

《布洛陀经诗》虽然包含"阴阳合德"等合理因素,但从其宗教神灵观的主要特征,以及在角色定位上的主导思想、在价值评价上的主流意识等方面来看,"男主女从"的等级特征都较为明显。这种等级观体现了壮族性别哲学和壮族传统文化的某些糟粕,是我们在寻求性别和谐发展之道时所必须给予剔除和扬弃的。     

A CANONICAL ANALYSIS OF MANAGERIAL-ENVIRONMENTAL RELATIONSHIPS: IMPLICATIONS FOR METHODOLOGY AND POLICY*

The present study uses canonical analysis to examine the contingency model of organizations in the nursing home field. Data on environmental pressures and managerial practices relevant to the decision-making process are analyzed. Results support the theory that managerial practices are contingent on environmental pressures. The implications of these results for health-care decision makers and for future assessments of managerial-environmental relationships are discussed.     

A ONE-PERIOD STOCHASTIC INVENTORY PROBLEM WITH A LUMP-SUM PENALTY COST

This paper presents an inventory problem related to the one-period stochastic inventory (or “newsboy”) problem. In this problem, the firm has to decide how much product to order to meet a random one-period demand. The version of the problem presented is novel in two respects. First, demand is explicitly permitted to be negative, and second, the penalty (or shortage) cost is assumed to be independent of the magnitude of the shortage. This situation is shown to change the form of the cost function and to complicate the determination of optimal policies. The form of the optimal policy is developed, and two example problems are presented in some detail.     

A NOTE ON THE USE OF SELECTED NONFINANCIAL RATIO VARIABLES TO PREDICT SMALL-BUSINESS LOAN PERFORMANCE*

Small business loan applications have not been evaluated successfully by traditional methods. This paper explores the possibility of using three types of nonfinancial ratio variables (owner, firm, and loan characteristics) to predict whether a small business will pay off or default its loan. The owner and loan variables were better predictors of loan success than the firm variables.     

论高校辅导员在学风建设中的作用

对合肥市七所高校的1 200名学生进行问卷调查,发现高校学风中存在一些问题,需要我们给予高度重视。高校辅导员具有管理与育人的双重身份,在学风建设中起着不可替代的作用。文章就高校辅导员如何充分发挥在学风建设中的作用,提出了一些意见。     

论建国后党对“科教兴国”战略的探索

“科教兴国”战略是新时期我党的治国方略,它的形成是建国后党的三代领导人艰苦探索的结果。其中以毛泽东为代表的第一代领导人奠定了新中国科技教育发展的基础;以邓小平为核心的党的第二代领导人构建了“科教兴国”战略的理论体系;以江泽民为核心的党的第三代领导集体对邓小平理论的丰富和发展、实践与创新,使实施“科教兴国”战略由理论变成了现实,化作全国人民的共同行动。