国内外公共突发事件应对研究述评

本文分别回顾了中外有关社会公共突发事件应急和企业危机管理的研究过程,从纷繁的研究文献中概括了有关突发事件应急的研究框架,认为对突发事件应急的研究可以归纳为静态系统和动态过程两个方面。近十几年来的研究重点主要放在了动态过程的研究上,而对静态系统的研究相对比较薄弱。     

论前期创造社艺术主张之成因

前期创造社"为艺术而艺术"的主张是在与文学研究会的论争中作为一种策略被提出来的,创造社同人自己对此缺乏真诚的信仰,也没有真正践行这种艺术主张,一旦在文坛站稳脚跟,他们也就抛弃了这一主张,转而大力提倡"为人生的艺术"和"革命文学",从而造成了所谓"方向大转换"的假相。     

Intuitive Toxicology: Expert and Lay Judgments of Chemical Risks

Human beings have always been intuitive toxicologists, relying on their senses of sight, taste, and smell to detect harmful or unsafe food, water, and air. As we have come to recognize that our senses are not adequate to assess the dangers inherent in exposure to a chemical substance, we have created the sciences of toxicology and risk assessment to perform this function. Yet despite this great effort to overcome the limitations of intuitive toxicology, it has become evident that even our best scientific methods still depend heavily on extrapolations and judgments in order to infer human health risks from animal data. Many observers have acknowledged the inherent subjectivity in the assessment of chemical risks and have indicated a need to examine the subjective or intuitive elements of expert and lay risk judgments. We have begun such an examination by surveying members of the Society of Toxicology and the lay public about basic toxicological concepts, assumptions, and interpretations. Our results demonstrate large differences between toxicologists and laypeople, as well as differences between toxicologists working in industry, academia, and government. In addition, we find that toxicologists are sharply divided in their opinions about the ability to predict a chemical's effect on human health on the basis of animal studies. We argue that these results place the problems of risk communication in a new light. Although the survey identifies misconceptions that experts should clarify for the public, it also suggests that controversies over chemical risks may be fueled as much by limitations of the science of risk assessment and disagreements among experts as by public misconceptions.     

公益林补偿政策评价研究

论述了公益林补偿政策评价研究的现状,分析了补偿政策评价的特点和存在问题,提出了解决问题的对策,并借鉴了美国联邦政府项目评价体系,提出了补偿政策的定性评价内容。     

旅游市场开发中的旅游地评估研究

规范的旅游市场开发必须以明确的旅游地评估为前提。针对当前旅游开发热潮中的旅游地使用权益问题 ,本文就旅游地评估的实质、现实必要性、评估原则及评估方法等问题提出了看法 ,并以湖北省保康县野花谷为例进行评估     

Professional Perspectives on Decision Making about the Long-term Care of Older People

With the increasing pressure on social and health care resources,professionals have to be more explicit in their decision makingregarding the long-term care of older people. This groundedtheory study used 19 focus groups and nine semi-structured interviews(99 staff in total) to explore professional perspectives onthis decision making. Focus group participants and intervieweescomprised care managers, social workers, consultant geriatricians,general medical practitioners, community nurses, home care managers,occupational therapists and hospital discharge support staff.The emerging themes spanned context, clients, families and services.Decisions were often prompted by a crisis, hindering professionalsseeking to make a measured assessment. Fear of burglary andassault, and the willingness and availability of family to helpwere major factors in decisions about living at home. Serviceavailability in terms of public funding for community care,the availability of home care workers and workload pressureson primary care services influenced decision ‘thresholds’regarding admission to institutional care. Assessment toolsdesigned to assist decision making about the long-term careof older people need to take into account the critical aspectsof individual fears and motivation, family support and the availabilityof publicly funded services as well as functional and medicalneeds.     

中国古代人才测评思想初探

我国古代在长期的人才选拔实践中积累了丰富的经验,也形成了相关的理论和方法.中国古代人才测评思想包括人才的重要性、难知性、可测性和人才素质构成的多维性思想,人才测评的主要方法包括分类比较法、实践鉴别法、自然观察法、民意调查法、绩效考察法、实验试探法等,人才测评的主要技术有口试、面试、纸笔测试和作业测试等.     

Joint impact of multiple observations on a subset of variables in multiple linear regression

In multiple linear regression analysis, each observation affects the fitted regression equation differently and has varying influences on the regression coefficients of the different variables. Chatterjee & Hadi (1988) have proposed some measures such as DSSE_ij (Impact on Residual Sum of Squares of simultaneously omitting the ith observation and the jth variable), F_j (Partial F-test for the jth variable) and F_j(i) (Partial F-test for the jth variable omitting the ith observation) to show the joint impact and the interrelationship that exists among a variable and an observation. In this paper we have proposed more extended form of those measures DSSE_IJ, F_J and F_J(I) to deal with the interrelationships that exist among the multiple observations and a subset of variables by monitoring the effects of the simultaneous omission of multiple variables and multiple observations.     

The design of organizations and the right to act

Recent innovations in the structure of formal organizations suggest possible directions for the design of schools to bring about high achievement. The structure of output-driven in contrast to administratively-driven schools is described, and designs are described which address both the goal of high achievement and the goal of reduced inequality.An earlier version of this paper was presented as the author's Sorokin Lecture at the annual meeting of the Eastern Sociological Society, Boston, March 1993.