Managing Retail Budget Allocation between Store Labor and Marketing Activities

The performance of a retail store depends on its ability to attract customer traffic, match labor with incoming traffic, and convert the incoming traffic into sales. Retailers make significant investments in marketing activities (such as advertising) to bring customers into their stores and in‐store labor to convert that traffic into sales. Thus, a common trade‐off that retail store managers face concerns the allocation of a store's limited budget between advertising and labor to enhance store‐level sales. To explore that trade‐off, we develop a centralized model to allocate limited store budget between store labor and advertising with the objective of maximizing store sales. We find that a store's inherent potential to drive traffic plays an important role, among other factors, in the relative allocation between advertising and store labor. We also find that as advertising instruments become more effective in bringing traffic to stores, managers should not always capitalize this effectiveness by increasing their existing allocations to advertising. In addition, we discuss a decentralized setting where budget allocation decisions cannot be enforced by a store manager and present a simple mechanism that can achieve the centralized solution. In an extension, we address the budget allocation problem in the presence of marketing efforts to shift store traffic from peak to off peak hours and show that our initial findings are robust. Further, we illustrate how the solution from the budget allocation model can be used to facilitate store level sales force planning/scheduling decisions. Based on the results of our model, we present several insights that can help managers in budget allocation and sales force planning.     

农民工的城市融入:财政压力—政策响应模型的构建

福利是影响农民工在城市融入程度的重要因素。财政压力—政策响应模型的基本思路是:福利政策效应取决于财政压力、政策响应能力,而政策响应能力主要受筹资能力和政策协调性的影响。对农民工福利政策相关要素进行分析即形成明晰的福利清单。从政府对农民工福利供给的责任看,流入地政府是农民工福利供给的主要承担者,中央政府和流出地政府在农民工福利供给中也要承担必要的财政责任。     

On group divisible response surface (GDRS) designs

In this paper some experimental situations are identified corresponding to which suitable response surface designs do not exist. A class of response surface designs is introduced to cope with these situations. Their analysis with and without blocking and methods of construction is discussed.     

Variability in PAH-DNA Adduct Measurements in Peripheral Mononuclear Cells: Implications for Quantitative Cancer Risk Assessment

Biomarkers such as DNA adducts have significant potential to improve quantitative risk assessment by characterizing individual differences in metabolism of genotoxins and DNA repair and accounting for some of the factors that could affect interindividual variation in cancer risk. Inherent uncertainty in laboratory measurements and within-person variability of DNA adduct levels over time are putatively unrelated to cancer risk and should be subtracted from observed variation to better estimate interindividual variability of response to carcinogen exposure. A total of 41 volunteers, both smokers and nonsmokers, were asked to provide a peripheral blood sample every 3 weeks for several months in order to specifically assess intraindividual variability of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-DNA adduct levels. The intraindividual variance in PAH-DNA adduct levels, together with measurement uncertainty (laboratory variability and unaccounted for differences in exposure), constituted roughly 30% of the overall variance. An estimated 70% of the total variance was contributed by interindividual variability and is probably representative of the true biologic variability of response to carcinogenic exposure in lymphocytes. The estimated interindividual variability in DNA damage after subtracting intraindividual variability and measurement uncertainty was 24-fold. Inter-individual variance was higher (52-fold) in persons who constitutively lack the Glutathione S-Transferase M1 (GSTM1) gene which is important in the detoxification pathway of PAH. Risk assessment models that do not consider the variability of susceptibility to DNA damage following carcinogen exposure may underestimate risks to the general population, especially for those people who are most vulnerable.     

论文学语言的变异性

语言本身的非系统性与文学创作的审美特性是促进文学语言产生变异的重要原因。在创作过程中,作家要把握和表现那些有多种可能性、无限发展性的事物,要写出自己的独特感受,使文学语言只得“化常为变”,而语言的非系统性则提供了物质上的可能。文学语言的变异性表现为语音变异、语义变异和语法变异。     

A new response-adaptive design for continuous treatment responses for phase III clinical trials

A new response-adaptive design, applicable for general class of continuous response distributions, is proposed. The allocation design is studied both theoretically and numerically and compared with some existing procedures. The applicability of the proposed procedure is also illustrated using real life data sets.     

A Probabilistic Approach to Assess External Doses to the Public Considering Spatial Variability of Radioactive Contamination and Interpopulation Differences in Behavior Pattern

Dose assessment is an important issue from the viewpoints of protecting people from radiation exposure and managing postaccident situations adequately. However, the radiation doses received by people cannot be determined with complete accuracy because of the uncertainties and the variability associated with any process of defining individual characteristics and in the dose assessment process itself. In this study, a dose assessment model was developed based on measurements and surveys of individual doses and relevant contributors (i.e., ambient dose rates and behavior patterns) in Fukushima City for four population groups: Fukushima City Office staff, Senior Citizens’ Club, Contractors’ Association, and Agricultural Cooperative. In addition, probabilistic assessments were performed for these population groups by considering the spatial variability of contamination and interpopulation differences resulting from behavior patterns. As a result of comparison with the actual measurements, the assessment results for participants from the Fukushima City Office agreed with the measured values, thereby validating the model and the approach. Although the assessment results obtained for the Senior Citizens’ Club and the Agricultural Cooperative differ partly from the measured values, by addressing further considerations in terms of dose reduction effects due to decontamination and the impact of additional exposure sources in agricultural fields, these results can be improved. By contrast, the measurements obtained for the participants from the Contractors’ Association were not reproduced well in the present study. To assess the doses to this group, further investigations of association members’ work activities and the related dose reduction effects are needed.     

Assessment of Interindividual and Geographic Variability in Human Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Environmental Tobacco Smoke

Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) is a major contributor to indoor human exposures to fine particulate matter of 2.5 μm or smaller (PM_2.5). The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation for Particulate Matter (SHEDS‐PM) Model developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates distributions of outdoor and indoor PM_2.5 exposure for a specified population based on ambient concentrations and indoor emissions sources. A critical assessment was conducted of the methodology and data used in SHEDS‐PM for estimation of indoor exposure to ETS. For the residential microenvironment, SHEDS uses a mass‐balance approach, which is comparable to best practices. The default inputs in SHEDS‐PM were reviewed and more recent and extensive data sources were identified. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine which inputs should be prioritized for updating. Data regarding the proportion of smokers and “other smokers” and cigarette emission rate were found to be important. SHEDS‐PM does not currently account for in‐vehicle ETS exposure; however, in‐vehicle ETS‐related PM_2.5 levels can exceed those in residential microenvironments by a factor of 10 or more. Therefore, a mass‐balance‐based methodology for estimating in‐vehicle ETS PM_2.5 concentration is evaluated. Recommendations are made regarding updating of input data and algorithms related to ETS exposure in the SHEDS‐PM model. Interindividual variability for ETS exposure was quantified. Geographic variability in ETS exposure was quantified based on the varying prevalence of smokers in five selected locations in the United States.     

《太上感应篇》:宗教文本与社会互动的典范

以道教理念为核心，《太上感应篇》融汇了佛教和儒学的若干内容，大约成于北宋仁、徽二宗之际。其形成当与中国宗教思想的运动和平民的社会化密切相关。《太上感应篇》既是一套伦理系统，也是一套解释系统，还是一套仪式系统，在中国社会近代化的过程中具有非同一般的影响。从一个纯粹的道教修仙文本转写成为一部化俗济世的善书，再演变成为一本全面的道德和社会手册，《太上感应篇》为我们揭示了宗教文本与社会的复杂的纠结关系──宗教文本的转写来自于社会的吁求，而一经转写，它又反而成为了社会再造的依据。     

Robust Control in Water Management

Since surface water flows are often stochastic, there is a role for water reservoirs in protecting users against uncertainty. We assume uncertainty regarding the probability distribution for the stochastic variable. Thus the decision allows for a range of approximate models that could be true, and the problem can be solved using robust optimal control. This paper analyses the implications of a robust framework on resource management decisions, using the case of water as an illustration. Robust choices are compared with those of a benchmark stochastic model and the emergence of precautionary behaviour is discussed.