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排序方式: 共有389条查询结果,搜索用时 281 毫秒
31.
Kimberly M. Thompson Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens Mark A. Pallansch Olen M. Kew Roland W. Sutter R. Bruce Aylward Margaret Watkins Howard Gary James P. Alexander Linda Venczel Denise Johnson Victor M. Cáceres Nalinee Sangrujee Hamid Jafari Stephen L. Cochi 《Risk analysis》2006,26(6):1571-1580
The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes. 相似文献
32.
Nicola J. Woods 《Journal of Sociolinguistics》1997,1(1):95-125
This research assesses the relative roles played by men and women in the development of New Zealand English. Real-time evidence on the development of NZ English over the past fifty years is provided by comparison of speakers recorded in 1948 and their present day descendants recorded recently. Elements of two vowel shifts are studied, and particular attention is paid to the vowel variables in words such as MOUTH, TRAP and DRESS. Results indicate that women lead in changes which are new and dynamic, but lag behind men in the use of variables representing older changes. While these results mirror patterns of gender-related variation observed in other contexts, explanations in terms of prestige which are often assumed to account for this pattern of variation are found to be inadequate in the New Zealand case. Rather, a hypothesis in terms of dialect contact, and specifically women's preferred discourse strategies in contact situations, is used to explain the process and progress of linguistic change in NZ English. 相似文献
33.
郝倖仔 《盐城师范学院学报》2004,24(3):50-55
李商隐诗作的隐义性历来多难索解。从创作心态角度进行研究 ,前人多侧重于常态心理而未涉及其变异心理。义山诗的变异心理表现为 :担心美好事物易逝的“强迫性感伤”情绪 ,压抑对婚姻的怨恨并将其转化为关爱的“反向形式” ,时有压抑性兴奋并将其雅化诗化为“性诙谐”诗作 ,只有在具禁止色彩的恋爱对象时才燃起“犯禁”的激情并在其影响下形成“忆内”诗与“恋情诗”风格的不同。 相似文献
34.
本文分析了92个射电选BLLac天体(RBLs)样本发现具有高红移的样本对Hubble关系的偏离很大,同时,样本的高偏振与大幅度的光变有关。 相似文献
35.
Deng Huang Theodore T. Allen 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2005,54(2):443-463
Summary. When experimentation on a real system is expensive, data are often collected by using cheaper, lower fidelity surrogate systems. The paper concerns response surface methods in the context of variable fidelity experimentation. We propose the use of generalized least squares to generate the predictions. We also present perhaps the first optimal designs for variable fidelity experimentation, using an extension of the expected integrated mean-squared error criterion. Numerical tests are used to compare the performance of the method with alternatives and to investigate the robustness to incorporated assumptions. The method is applied to automotive engine valve heat treatment process design in which real world data were mixed with data from two types of computer simulation. 相似文献
36.
DO NOT WEIGHT FOR HETEROSCEDASTICITY IN NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
M.C. Jones 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》1993,35(1):89-92
The potential role of weighting in kernel regression is examined. The concept that weighting has something to do with heteroscedastic errors is shown to be false. However, weighting does affect bias, and ways in which this might be exploited are indicated. 相似文献
37.
Vern R. Walker 《Risk analysis》1995,15(5):603-609
Differences in the conceptual frameworks of scientists and nonscientists may create barriers to risk communication. This article examines two such conceptual problems. First, the logic of "direct inference" from group statistics to probabilities about specific individuals suggests that individuals might be acting rationally in refusing to apply to themselves the conclusions of regulatory risk assessments. Second, while regulators and risk assessment scientists often use an "objectivist" or "relative frequency" interpretation of probability statements, members of the public are more likely to adopt a "subjectivist" or "degree of confidence" interpretation when estimating their personal risks, and either misunderstand or significantly discount the relevance of risk assessment conclusions. If these analyses of inference and probability are correct, there may be a conceptual gulf at the center of risk communication that cannot be bridged by additional data about the magnitude of group risk. Suggestions are made for empirical studies that might help regulators deal with this conceptual gulf. 相似文献
38.
Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability 总被引:16,自引:0,他引:16
In quantitative uncertainty analysis, it is essential to define rigorously the endpoint or target of the assessment. Two distinctly different approaches using Monte Carlo methods are discussed: (1) the end point is a fixed but unknown value (e.g., the maximally exposed individual, the average individual, or a specific individual) or (2) the end point is an unknown distribution of values (e.g., the variability of exposures among unspecified individuals in the population). In the first case, values are sampled at random from distributions representing various "degrees of belief" about the unknown "fixed" values of the parameters to produce a distribution of model results. The distribution of model results represents a subjective confidence statement about the true but unknown assessment end point. The important input parameters are those that contribute most to the spread in the distribution of the model results. In the second case, Monte Carlo calculations are performed in two dimensions producing numerous alternative representations of the true but unknown distribution. These alternative distributions permit subject confidence statements to be made from two perspectives: (1) for the individual exposure occurring at a specified fractile of the distribution or (2) for the fractile of the distribution associated with a specified level of individual exposure. The relative importance of input parameters will depend on the fractile or exposure level of interest. The quantification of uncertainty for the simulation of a true but unknown distribution of values represents the state-of-the-art in assessment modeling. 相似文献
39.
This paper continues earlier work of the authors in carrying out the program discussed in Kiefer (1975), of comparing the performance of designs under various optimality criteria. Designs for extrapolation problems are also obtained. The setting is that in which the controllable variable takes on values in the q-dimensional unit ball, and the regression is cubic. Thus, the ideas of comparison are tested for a model more complex than the quadratic models discussed previously. The E-optimum design performs well in terms of other criteria, as well as for extrapolation to larger balls. A method of simplifying the calculations to obtain approximately optimum designs, is illustrated. 相似文献
40.
Haim Shore 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(9):1819-1841
A statistical distribution of a random variable is uniquely represented by its normal-based quantile function. For a symmetrical distribution it is S-shaped (for negative kurtosis) and inverted S-shaped (otherwise). As skewness departs from zero, the quantile function gradually transforms into a monotone convex function (positive skewness) or concave function (otherwise). Recently, a new general modeling platform has been introduced, response modeling methodology, which delivers good representation to monotone convex relationships due to its unique “continuous monotone convexity” property. In this article, this property is exploited to model the normal-based quantile function, and explored using a set of 27 distributions. 相似文献