从社会回应模式看青少年离家出走现象

青少年离家出走问题已经成为全球性的社会现象,以西方研究社会问题的社会历史视角为基础提出的两个核心观点为"社会现象成为社会问题经历了发展的过程"和"社会各种人群或组织在社会问题的发展过程中给与了回应",从中可提炼出新的社会问题的研究模式,即社会回应模式。并通过应用中国"青少年离家出走"现象的发展过程来探讨这一社会回应模式在中国的适用性十分必要。研究发现,20世纪80年代至21世纪初期间(1980-2003年),青少年离家出走这一社会现象在中国经历了六大阶段的发展过程,并且在整个过程中,社会各人群对这一社会现象都有回应,但相应的社会回应和社会回应的研究仍存在不足。因此,对理论的进一步验证需要填充更多实证的数据,未来研究要进一步关注社会现象新一轮的发展历程和社会回应。     

地缘战略地位的可变性及其影响

地缘政治理论由于所服务的国家和地缘环境不同,强调的地缘战略重点区域也不同。对地缘政治理论中不时闪现的“环境决定论”和“对抗性”思维的否定过程中,以及从地缘战略地位理论自身的逻辑结构来看,都内在地包含着地缘战略地位可变性的理论思路。对处于不同地缘战略地位的国家来说,重要的是抓住不同时期赋予的机遇。推动国家的发展和促进内部稳定。     

Joint modified block replacement and production/inventory control policy for a failure-prone manufacturing cell

This paper considers a joint preventive maintenance (PM) and production/inventory control policy of an unreliable single machine, mono-product manufacturing cell with stochastic non-negligible corrective and preventive delays. The production/inventory control policy, which is based on the hedging point policy (HPP), consists in building and maintaining a safety stock of finished products in order to respond to demand and to avoid shortages during maintenance actions. Without considering the impact of preventive and corrective actions on the overall performance of the production system, most authors working in the reliability and maintainability domains confirm that the age-based preventive maintenance policy (ARP) outperforms the classical block-replacement policy (BRP). In order to reduce wastage incurred by the classical BRP, we consider a modified block replacement policy (MBRP), which consists in canceling a preventive maintenance action if the time elapsed since the last maintenance action exceeds a specified time threshold. The main objective of this paper is to determine the joint optimal policy that minimizes the overall cost, which is composed of corrective and preventive maintenance costs as well as inventory holding and backlog costs. A simulation model mimicking the dynamic and stochastic behavior of the manufacturing cell, based on more realistic considerations of the real behavior of industrial manufacturing cells, is proposed. Based on simulation results, the joint optimal MBRP/HPP parameters are obtained through a numerical approach that combines design of experiment, analysis of variance and response surface methodologies. The joint optimal MBRP/HPP policy is compared to classical joint ARP/HPP and BRP/HPP optimal policies, and the results show that the proposed MBRP/HPP outperforms the latter. Sensitivity analyses are also carried out in order to confirm the superiority of the proposed MBRP/HPP, and it is observed that for practitioners, the proposed joint MBRP/HPP offers not only cost savings, but is also easy to manage, as compared to the ARP/HPP policy.     

Polynomial regression analysis and response surface methodology in leadership research

Congruence has served as an important research framework for many leadership research topics. Perhaps the most frequently used methodological/statistical approach for testing the congruence framework is polynomial regression analysis (PRA) with response surface methodology (RSM). As this approach was introduced to organizational sciences more than two decades ago, we can now identify the main issues with the use of this approach in leadership research. To systematically investigate these issues, we first review how PRA and RSM have been used in various leadership studies. We then review the levels-of-analysis and rater model assumptions prevalent in PRA in terms of multilevel techniques, choice of centering options, and issues of endogeneity. Finally, to better understand the inconsistencies and variabilities that exist in leadership research, we review the use of two main RSM features and summarize additional statistical techniques for assessment in this realm. Overall, we aim to promote the rigorousness of this methodology within the study of congruence in leadership research by enhancing its capability in theory testing and building.     

顺应论：文学翻译的一个新视角

文学翻译的过程是译者在目的语认知语境中进行语言选择来阐释源发语文化的过程,这种选择发生在目的语语言任何一个层面上,它包括语言形式和翻译策略的选择。译者之所以能够对目的语语言作出恰当的选择,是因为目的语与源发语同样具有变异性、商讨性和顺应性的特点。翻译中的语境是在翻译过程中译者使用目的语语言阐释源语文化的过程中动态生成的,语境会随着翻译过程的发展而变化。在顺应的过程中,译者必须使自己的翻译行为及思维运作顺应于源发语与目的语双方的认知环境,只有这样,他的译文选择才能确保不同文化之间交际活动得以顺利进行。     

论汉字发展和规范的动态平衡性

汉字作为记录汉语的书写符号系统,其规范和统一既是本身职能的必然要求,也是汉字发展过程中表现出的主流倾向。但是汉字在社会应用层面所产生的差异性,给系统的规范和稳定带来了许多消极影响。规范化要求与变异性之间的对立,既有汉字自身发展的原因,也有外部社会因素影响的原因。汉字系统的发展总体上呈现出在多因素制约下相对平衡、稳定的状态。     

我国能源强度变化的影响因素分析及其实证研究

以1990-2008年能源强度统计数据为样本,利用脉冲响应函数与方差分解模型,对能源强度变化影响因素的动态作用特征及其影响效果进行了研究。实证结果表明：能源强度自身与第二产业比重对能源强度影响程度较大,能源价格变动与技术进步也对能源强度有一定影响,影响因素共同通过内在联结关系与相互作用机制,能够对提高能源效率起到积极作用。     

A Systematic Uncertainty Analysis of an Evaluative Fate and Exposure Model

Multimedia fate and exposure models are widely used to regulate the release of toxic chemicals, to set cleanup standards for contaminated sites, and to evaluate emissions in life-cycle assessment. CalTOX, one of these models, is used to calculate the potential dose, an outcome that is combined with the toxicity of the chemical to determine the Human Toxicity Potential (HTP), used to aggregate and compare emissions. The comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in the potential dose calculation in this article serves to provide the information necessary to evaluate the reliability of decisions based on the HTP A framework for uncertainty analysis in multimedia risk assessment is proposed and evaluated with four types of uncertainty. Parameter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo analysis. The variability in landscape parameters is assessed through a comparison of potential dose calculations for different regions in the United States. Decision rule uncertainty is explored through a comparison of the HTP values under open and closed system boundaries. Model uncertainty is evaluated through two case studies, one using alternative formulations for calculating the plant concentration and the other testing the steady state assumption for wet deposition. This investigation shows that steady state conditions for the removal of chemicals from the atmosphere are not appropriate and result in an underestimate of the potential dose for 25% of the 336 chemicals evaluated.     

中介语可变性研究的两个社会心理模式

介绍中介语研究的两个社会心理模式 ,即拉波夫模式和言语调节理论。大多数中介语的文体变化研究是在拉波夫模式的理论框架内进行的 ,即根据学习者对语言形式的注意程度来研究中介语的文体变化。言语调节理论根据说话人在交谈时对听话人的社会、教育及种族状况的态度来解释中介语的变化     

女性主义文论在中国的发展

经过20多年的探索,中国女性主义文论已基本建构完成,但也存在一些理论盲点或不完善之处,在新的历史条件下,一些学者以一种多视角的姿态,开辟了新的女性主义文论研究领域。