中介语可变性研究的两个社会心理模式

介绍中介语研究的两个社会心理模式 ,即拉波夫模式和言语调节理论。大多数中介语的文体变化研究是在拉波夫模式的理论框架内进行的 ,即根据学习者对语言形式的注意程度来研究中介语的文体变化。言语调节理论根据说话人在交谈时对听话人的社会、教育及种族状况的态度来解释中介语的变化     

女性主义文论在中国的发展

经过20多年的探索,中国女性主义文论已基本建构完成,但也存在一些理论盲点或不完善之处,在新的历史条件下,一些学者以一种多视角的姿态,开辟了新的女性主义文论研究领域。     

论写作思维与语言的多变性

写作思维与语言的发展呈现出一种多变性 ,这主要表现在 :思维与语言并不是同步产生与发展的 ;没有语言的参与也能进行思维 ;两种不同存在形式的语言即“内部语言”和“外部语言”的互为转化。因此 ,在了解、掌握思维与语言 ,“内部语言”与“外部语言”的关系及其特殊性的基础上 ,应扩展思维空间 ,多途径进行思维与语言的训练 ,以提高写作能力     

人民币实际汇率波动与中国对美出口

运用协整方法对人民币实际汇率波动与中国对美出口的关系进行实证研究。结果表明：中国对美出口收入效应极强,中国对美出口汇率波动效应较弱,中国对美出口的价格效应不存在。在美国经济可能陷入衰退的情况下,中国政府应暂缓人民币升值和人民币汇率形成机制改革的步伐。     

公平感对供应链成员定价决策影响的研究

本文研究公平感对由一个供应商和一个零售商组成的二级供应链中的定价决策的影响,其中供应商决定批发价格,零售商在接受供应商批发价格合同之后决定零售价格,市场需求受到零售价格的线性影响.采用管理实验方法得出,首先,供应商的批发价格和零售商的零售价格均分别低于完全理性假设下的均衡解;供应商是利他性的,即,乐于看到零售商收益的增加,并且,供应商认为零售商是完全理性的,即零售商的决策目标是最大化自身收益;然而,零售商却是刻毒性的,即乐于看到供应商收益的减少.其次,批发价格的变异度大于零售价格的,即供应商决策的难度大于零售商的.给管理者的启示是:供应商应考虑零售商的刻毒性的特征,降低批发价格,以提高零售商接受供应商所提批发价格的概率;此外,还应该为供应商提供辅助决策手段,以降低批发价格的变异度,提高决策的准确性     

有序响应变量的贝叶斯模型选择及其在COPD疾病防治中的应用

慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)是一种发病率、死亡率都非常高的疾病，且COPD的诊断和严重程度分级依赖于肺功能的检查，但是由于肺功能检查仪器价格昂贵，使得这项检查在很多经济欠发达地区尤其是农村基层医院并没有普及。本文基于有序响应变量模型致力于研究一种便于基层和社区使用的可以初步判别COPD病情的模型，以期提高我国基层和社区的COPD 防治水平。利用贝叶斯变量选择方法和数据增强的潜变量策略得到了易于实施的Gibbs后验抽样算法。数值模拟分析进一步说明了本文提出的有序响应变量贝叶斯模型选择方法的有效性，实例分析得到了易于判别COPD严重程度的稀疏模型。     

State attachment variability across distressing situations in middle childhood

Contemporary research suggests that attachment has both a trait‐like, stable component, and a state‐like component that varies across contexts. In the current study, we assessed state attachment variability across comparably distressing situations in middle childhood. In two samples, children reported their expectations of maternal support in each situation. Additionally, we administered trait attachment and psychological well‐being measures. Results indicated that, overall, children varied in their expectations across situations: more than half of the variance was explained by intra‐individual differences across situations. Results revealed two components underlying variability: a Signal‐and‐Support component reflecting expectations of support‐seeking and receiving, and a Back‐on‐Track component reflecting expectations of stress reduction and comfort. State attachment variability was related to individual differences in trait attachment: children who are more securely attached at the trait level, overall appear to vary less in their state attachment, likely due to their high mean state attachment scores across situations. When the mean state attachment scores are accounted for, more securely attached children seem to vary more, suggesting that their state attachment expectations are more sensitive to contextual fluctuations. Importantly, degree of state attachment variability explained psychological well‐being over and above trait attachment.     

Stochastically Modeling Listeria Monocytogenes Growth in Farm Tank Milk

This article presents a Listeria monocytogenes growth model in milk at the farm bulk tank stage. The main objective was to judge the feasibility and value to risk assessors of introducing a complex model, including a complete thermal model, within a microbial quantitative risk assessment scheme. Predictive microbiology models are used under varying temperature conditions to predict bacterial growth. Input distributions are estimated based on data in the literature, when it is available. If not, reasonable assumptions are made for the considered context. Previously published results based on a Bayesian analysis of growth parameters are used. A Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts bacterial growth is the focus of this study. Three scenarios that take account of the variability and uncertainty of growth parameters are compared. The effect of a sophisticated thermal model taking account of continuous variations in milk temperature was tested by comparison with a simplified model where milk temperature was considered as constant. Limited multiplication of bacteria within the farm bulk tank was modeled. The two principal factors influencing bacterial growth were found to be tank thermostat regulation and bacterial population growth parameters. The dilution phenomenon due to the introduction of new milk was the main factor affecting the final bacterial concentration. The results show that a model that assumes constant environmental conditions at an average temperature should be acceptable for this process. This work may constitute a first step toward exposure assessment for L. monocytogenes in milk. In addition, this partly conceptual work provides guidelines for other risk assessments where continuous variation of a parameter needs to be taken into account.     

Responsive contingency planning in supply risk management by considering congestion effects

Contingency rerouting is known as a cost-effective risk management strategy for major disruptions such as earthquakes and natural disasters. The objective of this paper is to develop a decision-making tool to determine the appropriate response speed of a volume-flexible backup supplier to improve the supply chain responsiveness. We propose a mixed integer programming (MIP)-based capacity planning tool which generates the contingency plan of the supply chain subject to random disruptions. In order to make an accurate decision, the impact of critical operational characteristics such as response time and congestion are considered in a disruption scenario. The appropriate response speed is selected through a decision tree analysis by minimizing the expected supply chain costs. The selection is made with respect to three different attitudes of the decision maker towards risk. In order to evaluate the impact of the different failure and recovery probabilities over the selection process, a sensitivity analysis is presented. The results show that considering congestion is especially critical for risk-neutral decision makers in mitigating against disruptions.     

Leaving Home and Living Alone: An Historical Perspective

This paper provides a temporal and spatial perspective on a variety of household forms in present-day Europe. Compared with the situation in pre-industrial England, many more people now live on their own but there are some surprising continuities in household forms. Notably, pre-industrial households were no more likely than present-day ones to include distant relatives, and the recent rise in the proportion of one-person families has simply returned the position to that produced by early widowhood in the seventeenth century. Nor has the general increase during recent decades in the proportion of one-person households reduced the variation within Europe in the frequency of living alone which remains much less likely in southern and parts of eastern Europe than in western Europe and Scandinavia. A more thorough comparative exercise is hampered by inconsistencies in the design of tables used to illustrate household types in different countries, and it is suggested that a standard set of tables should be agreed and produced for different national populations.