Notes and Communications “A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL”: A COMMENT*

Janssen and Daniel analyzed the choice between a one- or a two-point conversion for a particular game situation in college football. Their decision criteria was maximum expected utility based on a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function defined over the games outcomes. An alternative approach based on a stochastic dominance criterion is presented that does not rely on knowledge of the relative importance of tying vs. winning; rather, it relies on a notion of consistency in the sequential problem.     

Choices at various levels of uncertainty: An experimental test of the restated diversification theorem

Our “Restated diversification theorem” (Skogh and Wu, 2005) says that risk-averse agents may pool risks efficiently without assignment of subjective probabilities to outcomes, also at genuine uncertainty. It suffices that the agents presume that they face equal risks. Here, the theorem is tested in an experiment where the probability of loss, and the information about this probability, varies. The result supports our theorem. Moreover, it tentatively supports an evolutionary theory of the insurance industry—starting with mutual pooling at uncertainty, turning into insurance priced ex ante when actuarial information is available.     

Childhood exposure to the Second World War and financial risk taking in adult life

Adverse childhood experiences might have long-lasting effects on decisions under uncertainty in adult life. Merging the European Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement with data on conflict events during the Second World War, and relying on region-by-cohort variation in war exposure, we show that warfare exposure during childhood is associated with lower financial risk taking in later life. Individuals who experienced war episodes as children hold less – and are less likely to hold – stocks, but are more likely to hold life insurance, compared to non-exposed individuals. Effects are robust to the inclusion of potential mediating factors, and are tested for nonlinearity and heterogeneity. Moreover, we provide evidence of hedonic adaptation to war, as high and low intensity of war exposure have comparable long-term effects. We also document that war exposure in childhood increases sensitivity to financial uncertainty since exposed-to-war individuals are less likely to hold stocks after periods of high volatility. Finally, we shed light on the most likely mechanism in the relationship between war exposure and financial risk taking – i.e., enhanced sensitivity to uncertainty – and we show that preferences, and not beliefs, channel this relationship.     

Tornado warning: Understanding the National Weather Service’s communication strategies

This study explores the National Weather Service’s communication through a multi-sited rapid ethnography that extends the fully functioning society theory. National Weather Service field offices do not employ public information officers. Instead, forecasters predict the weather, craft messages, and build relationships with their publics. Scholars have called for public relations research that examines messages, including how crisis communication can help publics cope. Additionally, scholars have noted that all organizations need public relations, even if they do not employ formal public relations personnel. In our study, forecasters emphasized the need to build their publics’ tornado threat awareness and provided strategies to make weather science accessible. Forecasters discussed a variety of message strategies including avoiding fear appeals, humanizing the organization, and visualizing risks. Forecasters also built relationships with active publics through soliciting weather spotters and empowering them to prepare others for severe weather. Overall, findings expand knowledge about how organizations can employ strategic public relations to benefit society, thereby extending fully functioning society theory.     

Role of Random Capacity Risk and the Retailer in Decentralized Supply Chains with Competing Suppliers

This research considers a supply chain under the following conditions: (i) two heterogeneous suppliers are in competition, (ii) supply capacity is random and pricing is endogenous, (iii) consumer demand, with and without an intermediate retailer, is price dependent. Specifically, we examine how uncertainty in supply capacity affects optimal ordering and pricing decisions, supplier and retailer profits, and the incentives to reduce such uncertainty. When two suppliers sell through a monopolistic retailer, supply uncertainty not only affects the retailer's diversification strategy for replenishment, but also changes the suppliers’ wholesale price competition and the incentive for reducing capacity uncertainty. In this dual‐sourcing model, we show that the benefit of reducing capacity uncertainty depends on the cost heterogeneity between the suppliers. In addition, we show that a supplier does not necessarily benefit from capacity variability reduction. We contrast this incentive misalignment with findings from the single‐supplier case and a supplier‐duopoly case where both suppliers sell directly to market without the monopolistic retailer. In the latter single‐supplier and duopoly cases, we prove that the unreliable supplier always benefits from reducing capacity variability. These results highlight the role of the retailer's diversification strategy in distorting a supplier's incentive for reducing capacity uncertainty under supplier price competition.     

工程项目全过程风险管理模式探讨

本文在分析工程项目风险管理研究现状的基础上,从全过程管理角度,提出工程项目全过程风险管理模式:全过程风险管理机构的设置、全过程风险管理计划的制定、工程项目定义与决策阶段、设计与计划阶段、实施与控制阶段、竣工验收阶段四个阶段的风险管理。为项目业主和承包商更好的进行风险管理提供参考。     

Building up Resilience in a Pharmaceutical Supply Chain through Inventory,Dual Sourcing and Agility Capacity

This paper is inspired by a risk management problem faced by a leading pharmaceutical company. Key operational risk mitigation measures include Risk Mitigation Inventory (RMI), Dual Sourcing and Agility Capacity. We study the relationship between these three measures by modeling the drug manufacturing firm that is exposed to supply chain disruption risk. The firm determines optimal RMI levels for assumed Dual Sourcing and Agility Capacity. We quantify the decrease in RMI levels in the presence of Dual Sourcing and Agility Capacity. Furthermore, using an example, we analyze RMI, Dual Sourcing and Agility Capacity decisions jointly. It turns out that RMI and Agility Capacity can be substitutes as long as no Dual Source is available. Once the Dual Source is available, Agility Capacity and Dual Sourcing appear to be substitutes. We further show that for long disruption times, the optimal Dual Source production rate may decrease in the disruption time. Within our modeling framework, we introduce an operational metric that quantifies Supply Chain Resilience. Supply chain disruptions can have a severe business impact and need to be managed appropriately.     

战略联盟模式选择的分析框架：资源、风险与结构模式间关系的概念模型

本文从公司在战略联盟中投入的不同种类资源的风险评价角度,综合考虑资源、风险及战略联盟的结构模式选择间的关系,形成了战略联盟结构模式选择的新的分析框架,提出了揭示三者间关系的概念模型及理论假说。本文认为,公司对战略联盟结构模式选择的偏好会受到管理者对未来公司在战略联盟中的各类风险的主观评价的影响,而公司对战略联盟投入的各类资源及其重要性是影响管理者对风险主观评价的重要因素。因此,应综合考虑战略联盟中所投入的不同种类资源及其所引发的风险大小以选择战略联盟的结构模式。