中国证券市场并购行为绩效的实证分析

企业并购是证券市场上资源配置的重要方式,它对企业经营绩效有着重大的影响。本文在回顾相关文献资料的基础上,采用统计方法对近年来我国证券市场的并购行为进行了分析,得出了不同并购行为所产生的不同并购绩效结果,分析了影响并购绩效的相关因素,并提出了若干改善企业并购绩效的政策建议。     

试论高等教育“学、研、产”的关系

简论了教学、科研、生产三者的关系,认为三者相互依存、相互需求、相互促进、相互补充,同时指出高等教育是产学研结合组织基础中的中心主体。     

Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

Food security, consumption diversification and foreign exchange balances in Indonesia: Results from a multi-commodity simulation

Many countries adopt economic development strategies, within which an important element is the maintenance of low and stable food prices. In Indonesia, this is achieved principally through government subsidies to consumers of imported rice, the total cost of which fluctuates considerably from year to year, depending on world price movements and domestic production performance. Higher and possibly less stable domestic food prices appear inevitable in Indonesia, however, as the spectre of reduced oil revenues increases the government's concern with the cost of its food policy. Results from a stochastic simulation model of the agricultural sector show that the food price risk to which consumers and producers would be exposed in the absence of the stabilizing component of Indonesia's food policy would be considerable, rendering this component an unlikely area for significant change. A viable policy option appears to be the continuance of rice and wheat price stabilization, but with a graduated increase in the relative price of rice, reaching a total of 10% by 1985. Such a policy could result in net self-sufficiency in foreign exchange from staple food trade by 1990 and an improvement in aggregate economic surplus, although the expected decade improvement in food-energy consumption per capita would fall from 10% to 8%.     

中国民间文艺学史上的民俗学派

1949年前的20世纪前期民间文艺学史上,不仅存在着流派,而且存在着不同的流派,这些在理论、观念、方法上不同的流派,形成学科的多元格局。这些流派是:北大歌谣研究会派、"古史辨"派神话学、文学人类学派、俗文学派、社会-民族学派、延安学派和民俗学派。它们以一定的社会文化环境为依存和发展的条件,分别有自己的代表人物、理论纲领和代表作。流派的存在和多元格局既促进了中国民间文艺学的本土化发展,又显示了中国民间文艺学的边缘性、跨学科性和不成熟性。     

商鞅变法得失新析

商鞅变法是战国时期最为彻底的一次封建化改革活动。这次变法既有值得后来改革者认真总结和借鉴的一系列成功的宝贵经验,也有不少极为沉重的历史教训。     

The goal-oriented approach to evaluation: Critique and case study from drug abuse treatment

The specification and measurement of program goals remains central to most evaluation research strategies, yet procedures for implementing this approach are not well-articulated. It is the purpose of this discussion to describe a stepwise procedure for programmatic goal setting and monitoring used in a demonstration drug treatment program for women. Three implementation steps are described: (a) goal setting, (b) checking for consistency, (c) monitoring and feedback. The advantages and limitations of this approach are discussed and useful complementary measurement strategies are suggested.     

Controlling health care costs: An evaluation of strategies

There has been much discussion about the factors underlying inflation in the health care sector and the means to moderate increases in health expenditures. This paper identifies various costcontainment strategies and synthesizes research findings that may be helpful in evaluating their effectiveness. The review demonstrates the complexity of the issues and relationships that must be confronted and understood in cost containment. The delivery system is shown to be not well-suited to improving efficiency and restraining health care expenditure. Any single strategy, whether it involves restructuring the market or more direct regulation, cannot in itself accomplish the combination of expenditure control and adequacy of services that is socially desirable. A number of mutually reinforcing strategies are required. Finally, more empirical and analytical information on incentives, provider and regulatory decisionmaking, costs of regulation, and the dynamics of negotiation, is essential for the design of an effective costcontainment program.     

展望、回顾与探索--中国古代文学研究高层论坛综述

文章对2002年9月西安召开的"中国古代文学研究高层论坛"所涉及的"全球化背景下中国文学资源的价值重估"、"20世纪古代文学研究成果的回顾、批评与新世纪研究前景的展望"、"古代文学研究的学术规范"、"古代文学研究方法"四个问题的讨论情况以及一些主要论文的观点作了介绍与综述;并就讨论及论文中所涉及问题在中国古代文学研究方面的意义作了评析.     

Innovations in teaching social work research

This article reviews the innovations in teaching research in social work education, including conceptual material and specific examples. There is attention to the ideological differences inherent in research and its instruction, methodology/technology innovations, and integrative and group approaches, among other developments. Examination of three major models of research instruction and their assumptions about the purpose of research in social work is presented. Discussion about ethical codes and curricular guidelines for social work programs in the United States and the United Kingdom provides a framework to understand the importance of teaching and learning research for the social work profession.