Policy simulations with a macroeconometric model of the Indian economy

In this paper, the results of various dynamic policy simulations are analyzed within the context of a macroeconometric model of the Indian economy. The model contains 35 equations and offers a consistent framework for policy analysis. It is considerably expanded on the side of the fiscal sector and usefully incorporates the interdependence between monetary and fiscal sectors and gives due attention to supply side considerations. Magnitudes of effects of sustained policy changes are analyzed for the period 1964–1965 to 1974–1975. Impact multipliers and elasticities are also analyzed. Government expenditures variables and deficit financing are shown to have substantial impact on the system whereas changes in tax-rates, discount-rates, and liquidity ratios for commercial banks are shown to have only a marginal impact. The model is used for exploring the growth potential of the economy in a forecast period of five years under alternative assumptions regarding policy options.     

To be or not to be: Control and balancing of type I and type II errors

The various costs of Type I and Type II errors of inference from data are discussed. Unfortunately, other things equal, Types I and II errors are inversely related. Six methods of minimizing Type I error in studies are presented, each of which may be employed even after data are collected. Type II errors may also be minimized by a combination of study design and analytic means. Although some of these techniques must be built into the study others can be undertaken when beginning work on a data set. Only one of these techniques will increase Type I error, and those involving data reduction may decrease both types of error.     

Evaluating a management and organization development effort in mental health agencies.

Although the use of management and organization development techniques in health and human service settings is increasing, there are few systematic studies of their effects. Those which do exist are problematic in many respects. An 18-month program incorporating both management and organization development is described along with the results of its evaluation, which were positive and well-utilized. A discussion of the methods employed, the problems encountered, and the outcomes obtained illustrates that these evaluation efforts are needed and can be useful to program evaluators involved in planned-change efforts.     

Leverage and evaluation effectiveness

Weaknesses in evaluations often can be traced to structural limitations in the positions of evaluation researchers. Conventional human relations techniques often are an insufficient basis for securing strong support for evaluation research. Strategies for increasing evaluation research leverage are reviewed. Alignment of evaluation research with regulatory bodies with authority to suspend public program expenditures is advocated. Several likely obstacles in the development of the regulatory evaluation model are anticipated and addressed.     

Quality of life indicators and program evaluation

Social indicators and program evaluation research have much in common. Quality of life work specifically raises the question of objective versus subjective variables, aggregate data versus distributional and individual issues, and the reference standards used in judgment and evaluation decisions. This article presents perspectives on these issues from the orientation of quality of life research and proposes that these approaches have relevance for program evaluation work.     

Child maltreatment in the family: a European perspective

Child maltreatment is generally referred to under the global categories of physical, sexual, emotional/psychological abuse and neglect. The Concerted Action on the Prevention of Child Abuse in Europe (CAPCAE) reports on the specific forms of harm and injury, actions and persons believed responsible in eight European countries. The most common actions across all participating countries responsible for harm were those of violent parenting or absent parenting. A review of prevention strategies found that few programmes focused on specific behaviours or included measures to indicate whether their actions were successful in preventing further harm to children. It is recommended that fathers need to be targeted in prevention as well as mothers and that specific data collection of actual harms, actions, persons responsible and outcomes needs to be implemented as a priority in all European countries. Such specificity avoids a focus on risk which is unacceptable in some countries, over inclusive of parents and resource intensive.     

世界城市研究历程与分类体系综述

世界城市研究的兴起主要建立在西方发达国家城市发展的基础上,对世界城市的相关概念,研究历程,分类指标及等级体系进行国外文献研究分析,对于我国的世界城市建设及学术研究意义重大。通过世界城市的研究历程可以发现,不同的研究视角往往会产生不同的分类指标体系,而当今世界城市的分类标准正日趋呈现综合化。