Modeling asset returns with alternative stable distributions *

In the 1960's Benoit Mandelbrot and Eugene Fama argued strongly in favor of the stable Paretian distribution as a model for the unconditional distribution of asset returns. Although a substantial body of subsequent empirical studies supported this position, the stable Paretian model plays a minor role in current empirical work.

While in the economics and finance literature stable distributions are virtually exclusively associated with stable Paretian distributions, in this paper we adopt a more fundamental view and extend the concept of stability to a variety of probabilistic schemes. These schemes give rise to alternative stable distributions, which we compare empirically using S&P 500 stock return data. In this comparison the Weibull distribution, associated with both the nonrandom-minimum and geometric-random summation schemes dominates the other stable distributions considered-including the stable Paretian model.     

论东周陶器的美学特征

东周陶器在造型上,栩栩如生的仿生造型使器物富有生活气息,而传统的几何造型更是由抽象、规范走向纤细、玲珑;纹饰上,纹样装饰的写意性、象征性减弱而写实性增强,反映现实生活的写实性图案普遍盛行。而绘画、雕塑、漆艺等多种艺术技法的综合运用,点、线、面的娴熟把握,使得陶器纹饰与造型妙合无垠,相得益彰。东周陶器对现实生活的观照,对美的自觉追求,代表了一种全新的审美趣味。     

论鲁迅小说中拉丁字母人名和地名的构成

为了加强作品的讽刺力量，鲁迅小说中采用了一些拉丁字母的人名和地名。从形式上看，有纯用字母的，也有汉字加字母混合构成的；其中拉丁字母人名多半来自英语，拉丁字母地名常用威妥玛式或邮政式拼音。     

The Scientific Visualization of Organizations: A Rationale for a New Approach to Organizational Modeling*

This article examines the rationale for the application of a new research tool, scientific visualization, to the study of organizations. Based upon a general theory of visualization, the ability to simultaneously display both variables and organizational entities should allow for easier and more widespread analysis of organizational research issues. Applications and future directions for both research and praxis are discussed.     

非经典计量经济建模方法论的特征分析与比较研究

 按照内容的沿革,计量经济模型分为经典计量经济模型和非经典计量经济模型。非经典计量经济建模方法论既是经典计量经济建模方法论的发展和延伸,又在建模理念、建模方法、模型应用等方面有着很大的不同。本文从数据类型、模型变量、建模对象、参数形式、建模思想等几个方面,对非经典计量经济建模方法论进行了系统的梳理、归纳和分析,重点比较了其与经典计量经济建模方法论的不同特征,对计量经济模型方法论发展演进的规律进行了初步的总结。     

On the Sequential Selection Problem*

Kwan and Yuan [13] considered the sequential selection problem in which an employer should arrange the sequence of interviews with job applicants to fill a position. In this note, it is shown that their selection problem would be alternately interpreted as an optimal search problem or, more specifically, a discrete search problem with a stationary target. A more generalized version of the ordering problem is proposed which explicitly considers the time value of money. Also, the optimality of the ordering strategy in the generalized problem is proven by the pair-wise exchange method, which is simpler than the induction hypothesis-based proof. The sequention selection problem is shown to be a special case of the general ordering problem where the discount rate is zero.     

The Auditor's Going-Concern Disclosure as a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis*

The question of how an auditor's going-concern disclosure affects a client's future operations has long troubled the auditing profession. In an attempt to provide further understanding of this issue, we introduce Discrete-Time Survival Analysis (DTSA) to examine the aftermath of 231 first-time going-concern disclosures on clients' subsequent continuance. DTSA represents a significant refinement over traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic (LOGIT) regression in that it provides not only a probability estimate, but also an estimate of the timing of the event occurrence. The addition of this extra dimension (event timing) aids decision makers by providing more complete information about event probabilities. Consistent with the “self-fulfilling prophecy effect,” the risk profiles developed from DTSA indicate that the first year subsequent to the initial going-concern disclosure was the most dangerous in terms of risk of bankruptcy. However, after the first year, the incidence of bankruptcy decreases significantly. Thus, DTSA is able to provide a richer perspective on this perplexing issue than previously considered.     

认同嵌入：网络社会大学生政治社会化的非均衡互构

大学生政治社会化是大学生社会化的重要组成部分,网络的迅速发展为大学生政治社会化提供了崭新的领域。网络社会环境下展开大学生政治社会化的研究是建立在深入分析网络社会内涵的基础上,结合对大学生政治社会化的实证调研,分析网络社会大学生政治社会化的现状,并从角色认同和群体意识的角度分析网络社会大学生政治社会化的挑战与机遇。     

群体分化:大学生“村官”角色建构的动因、类型及结果

从2008年大学生"村官"政策实施至今,已经有5年的时间。大学生"村官"因角色认知的价值取向和角色领悟的建构张力不同发生了群体分化,形成了四种不同的角色建构类型,分别是社会价值取向下的主动变革模式、社会价值取向下的被动适应模式、个人价值取向下的主动变革模式、个人价值取向下的被动适应模式,这四种模式下的大学生"村官"在角色建构的不同阶段表现出不同的建构张力,呈现出不同的特点。     

我国社会养老保险制度的收入再分配效应分析

 针对我国现行养老保险制度覆盖面有限,并且对不同就业类型人员采取有差别的制度安排等问题,一些学者认为,现行养老保险制度实际上扩大了贫富差距,不利于社会公平发展。那么,我国现行的养老保险制度安排到底产生了怎样的收入再分配？当前的养老保险制度安排是否有利于缩小贫富差距和促进公平发展？本文以统计局公布的年度数据为基础,采用统计模拟和精算方法,对不同就业类型人群、不同收入水平人群、不同性别人群、不同缴费年限人群以及不同寿命人群因养老保险制度安排产生的收入再分配进行测算和分析,得出相关的结论和启示。