欧盟碳市场系统风险和预期收益的实证研究

运用CAPM模型分析了欧盟排放贸易体系(EU ETS)市场风险,通过Zipf技术研究不同预期收益下碳价波动行为。结果显示:2005～2007年第2阶段单个合约对市场风险敏感性小于第1阶段。2005～2007年的系统风险和2008～2009年较为一致,而前者的非系统风险是后者的10倍以上;2008～2009年碳市场的超额收益率较低,小于0.02%;碳价的上涨和下跌概率是不对称的,在预期收益率为20%和投资时间为250天的情况下,下跌概率高于上涨概率10%;在较低的预期收益下,碳价的涨跌受到了市场机制、季节性、异质性事件的影响;在高预期收益率下,投资者对碳价变动认知较不稳定,风险较大。     

角色压力对信息技术专业人员工作态度影响的实证研究

 摘　　要:随着信息技术在组织中大规模的应用，信息技术专业人员的角色压力问题日益突出。本文采用实证方法，研究了IT行业中角色压力对信息技术专业人员工作态度的影响，其中包括工作满意度和组织承诺，结果发现角色模糊和角色超载对工作满意度和组织承诺有正向的影响，角色冲突对工作满意度和组织承诺有负向的影响。     

MULTIPERIOD FORECASTING ANALYSIS OF A DYNAMIC MODEL FOR A SMALL SAMPLE

In this paper we derive the formulae for the bias and mean squared forecast error (MSFE) of the least squares forecast several periods ahead in the context of a dynamic model. Since the expressions are in terms of integrals, we have also obtained the numerical value of the bias and MSFE for different values of parameters and different disturbance structures. The results confirm some earlier studies (based on the AR(1) model), for example Lahiri (1975) and Hoque et al. (1988).     

Effects of short-term role overload on marital interactions

This paper examines the effect of role overload on marital interactions using a within-person, time series approach. It is proposed that role overload is indirectly related to marital interactions most strongly via anxiety but also via depression. Twenty-three couples completed daily reports of overload, depression and anxiety and weekly reports of their own and their spouse's marital behaviour over 4 months. After controlling for autocorrelation, role overload was found to affect directly both depression and anxiety, but its effect on anxiety was much stronger than that on depression. Anxiety predicted withdrawal from marital interactions, but not anger, and depression predicted anger, but not withdrawal. Also, spouses' perceptions of their partners' behaviour reflected the partners' self-reported behaviour, and spouses' perceptions predicted their own behaviour.     

异质信念下内幕交易者市场操纵行为研究

在竞争性理性预期均衡的框架下,建立起非知情交易者异质信念下风险资产定价模型,推导出关于风险资产的贝叶斯线性均衡价格函数,并基于此研究内幕交易者市场操纵行为,揭示操纵手法。研究结果表明非知情交易者的信念偏差对交易需求、均衡价格以及内幕交易者的操纵策略均有重大影响,而对市场深度没有影响。内幕交易者通过散布虚假消息使得非知情交易者成为虚假消息的跟随者可实现获利;内幕交易者在散布虚假消息时需要考虑非知情交易者的整体信念偏差;在线性均衡下,均衡价格与内幕交易者散布的虚假消息呈线性正相关。     

Developing business buccaneers: employer expectations of emergent leaders

This study investigates employer expectations of graduates to inform pedagogical practice within a context of industry–university collaboration. Employers’ views of graduates as future leaders are explored through interviews, focus groups and a survey, with a regional sample of 146 managers. Findings show employers have different understandings and diverse expectations of leadership traits and generic competencies. Employers anticipate future graduates will need greater adaptability and flexibility for volatile business contexts; with some highlighting rule breaking that implies a buccaneer approach rather than responsible leadership. The dissonance between an academic aim to educate socially responsible, global citizens and industry demands potentially undermines the coherence of partnership. Consequently, this study casts doubt on implicit assumptions that practice-informed, industry–university, collaboration will deliver better leaders. The main implications are that educators need to clearly communicate to employers how university learning transfers into actual work practice, and for graduates to better articulate their broad capabilities. The research offers fresh insight into on educators’ responsibility to nurture critical thinking in graduates with the learning agility to question and responsibly navigate organisational rules. The study also contributes to the industry–university partnership debate by revealing the academic complexity of developing future leaders given the multiple lenses of practice-informed views.     

Entrepreneurial intention of engineering students and associated influence of contextual factors / Intención emprendedora de los estudiantes de ingeniería e influencia de factores contextuales

This research explores the incidence of individual and contextual factors on the entrepreneurial intention of engineering students, as they are called to be the founders of new technology-based firms, which are required for the generation of economic growth and employment. A quantitative study comprising 1,004 engineering and architecture students has been conducted, in which both contextual factors (perception of economic-administrative barriers and unemployment rates) and antecedents of entrepreneurial intention from Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behaviour have been examined. Results show that individuals with a high entrepreneurial intention show a favourable attitude towards the behaviour and see themselves capable of undertaking an entrepreneurial behaviour. Perception of social support, although strong, is not such a relevant factor. Regarding contextual factors, these do not discourage individuals with high entrepreneurial intention. Last, the role played by unemployment rates is unclear. Consequently, technical universities and governments, in their social responsibility to foster entrepreneurship in future young professionals, should take these factors into account to promote an encouraging climate for the development of an entrepreneurial spirit.     

论“功能配置”与“公众期待”的对位效应及其满足条件——基于现代公共文化服务体系建设中工具激活的向度

现代公共文化服务体系建设命题是现场倒逼力量反向驱动的积极社会后果。现场倒逼力量形成的问题根源之一,在于传统公共文化服务网络结构中服务工具程度不同的功能失灵。基于历史条件和当时社会发展水平给予"标准配置"的那些基本工具,就整体情况而言处于"去功能化"或者至少是工具功能远远低于设计标杆的实际运行状态,其被动结果是公众参与度、服务有效性或者工具运行效率等评价方式中不得不承认的"工具失灵"或"服务失效"。服务工具与服务对象之间的关系疏离使我们不得不重新审视"工具激活"这一命题的理论指涉与实践张力。就现实性极强的工具激活问题而言,思考的重要向度之一是如何实现功能配置与公众期待之间的对位效应、如何满足对位效应得以实现的基本条件。     

再谈高校学报编辑应重视补白的作用

本文探讨分析了学报补白的内容类型和形式,对是空白还是补白进行进一步分析研究,对如何充分利用好版面的补白作用提出了建议。     

Frontier imaginings and subversive Indigenous spatialities

One of the most powerful and enduring aspects of publicly projected Anglo-Australian national identities is part of what [Howitt, R., 2001. Frontiers borders, edges: liminal challenges to the hegemony of exclusion. Australian Geographical Studies 39, 233–245.] has referred to as frontier imaginings: the carving out of the Australian physical and socio-cultural landscape into familiar, settled, and productive spaces. These frontier imaginaries have been leveraged to exact social control and ‘zealously order rural space’ [Philo, C., 1992. Neglected rural geographies: a review. Journal of Rural Studies 8, 193–207, 197]. Government policy has historically been imbued with frontier imaginaries, privileging population movements that are constructed as appropriately bounded, and disciplining those which are not. Much Indigenous mobility falls into the latter category. This paper tells a story of competing rationalities about the purpose and nature of rural ‘settlement’, both past and present, and the implications of these rationalities for contemporary Indigenous population dynamics. In so doing, it creates a discursive space for examining the cultural content and hidden assumptions in constructions of appropriate ‘settlement patterns’. Ultimately, it speaks of spatial struggles across the Australian geographical and temporal landscape. It also opens windows onto the fragile geographies of co-existence that need to be engaged with to shift the discourses of rural livelihood and well being toward discourses of accommodation, recognition and sustainable ways of being together.