A Framework for Time Varying Parameter Regression Modeling

A framework for time varying parameter regression models is developed and employed in modeling and forecasting price expectations, using the Livingston data. Alternative model formulations, which include various choices for both the stochastic processes generating the varying parameters and the sets of explanatory variables, are examined and compared by using this framework. These models, some of which have appeared elsewhere and some of which are new, are estimated and used to assess the expectations formation process.     

我国产业集群促进实践中的问题研究——基于欧洲各国的集群政策经验

将我国地方政府与欧洲各国地方政府集群促进与政策实践比较之后发现,政府在集群促进中的角色设定上,在集群运行机理认识上,在政策工具运用上,在集群识别与支持对象选择上,在政府集群促进行动方式上,在政府对于集群资助方式上均存在着较大差异。分析讨论表明,这些差异主要不是因为国情不同,或体制不同造成的,而是因为地方政府对市场经济不适应造成的,进而揭示并讨论了我国一些地方政府集群促进政策实践中的问题。     

Gender Differences in Expectations Predictive of Volunteer Experience Among Older Chinese Professionals in Hong Kong

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine gender differences in expectations predictive of volunteer experience. Volunteering is one pathway to remaining actively engaged in later life and active engagement is considered one of the cornerstones of successful aging. The global feminization of aging underscores the need to consider gender differences when exploring factors associated with volunteerism. There is also a growing international interest in volunteerism among older adults. A sample of 438 Chinese professionals in Hong Kong ages 45-79, including retired (36.3%) and employed (63.7%), were asked about their expectations for volunteer work. Gender was evenly distributed, with 49.8% male and 50.2% female. Forty-three percent (43%) had volunteer experience. A multivariate logistic regression model was fit to sub-samples by gender, and gender differences emerged. For males, married and the expectation to utilize own skills were associated with volunteer experience. For females, self-rated health, retired, and the expectation to meet the needs of others were associated with volunteer experience. These results suggest that gender differences in expectations may influence volunteer activity.     

Expected and Actual Family Size in Greece: 1983–1997

On the basis of data collected in the 1997 fertility study in theGreater Athens area, in which a sub-sample of women previouslyinterviewed in the 1983 National Fertility Survey wereinterviewed again, the validity of aggregate and individualfertility intentions is evaluated. The main finding is thatfertility intentions slightly overestimate ultimate family size.Moreover, higher expectations are associated with higher`transition rates' towards having children and to shorter birthintervals for all parities.     

论我国戒毒模式中社会工作者的角色

本文主要分析了社会工作者在我国目前的几种戒毒模式中可以扮演的角色和实现途径。社会工作者在自愿戒毒模式中的角色是服务提供者和倡导者，在强制戒毒模式中的角色是协调者，在劳教戒毒模式中的角色是咨询者和组织者，在TC戒毒模式中的角色和功能是支持者。     

论“自主学习”模式下的教师角色

培养学习者自主学习的能力是外语教学的重要目标。本文在自主学习模式下,探讨当代大学教师应扮演的角色:策划、指导者;监控、评估者;促进、帮助者;反思、研究者;资源利用者和心理医生。     

转变教师角色，提高学生自主学习能力

随着社会的变革和发展,传统的教育模式已不能适应时代的要求。现代教育的目标越来越倾向于人才能力的提高和全面素质的增强,而实现这个目标的关键就在于转变传统的教师角色,提高学生自主学习能力。本文将从教师角色的转变等方面对提高学生自主学习能力的途径进行探讨。     

中国基金非理性问题研究：现状、动因及路径选择

2006年无疑是中国基金最引人注目的一年。在这一年中,基金收益不断上涨,基金销售异常火爆,基金市场空前繁荣。基金业的迅速发展有其内在原因,但也有非理性的一面,这种非理性的上涨背后隐藏着深刻的危机,充分认识并及时防范其风险尤为重要。本文试图对当前基金市场的非理性加以分析,并提出预防风险相关制度安排,引导基金业又好又快健康发展。     

美国在巴以和平进程中的角色调整

伊拉克战后的安全问题令布什政府的外交政策备受国内外批评,使得后布什时代的美国政府将解决巴以问题作为突破口,一改往日对巴以问题的冷漠态度,转而主动推动巴以和平进程,采用多重"遏制战略"和"平衡战略"以实现自身角色的调整。然而,由于巴以问题的复杂性和美国全球霸权结构的利己性,布什政府的角色调整对于巴以和平进程具有双重绩效。     

责任与法律责任

责任概念的变迁,显示了责任具有内外两个层面的内涵。随着社会高度组织化和功能分化,法律系统从社会系统中分立出来,法律责任也随之从责任分立出来,成为体现责任外在性层面最重要的表征。责任与法律责任的变迁可归因于责任内在性层面的发展动力。然而,当下法律责任对责任内在性诉求的回应尚且滞后,期待公法责任在责任内涵的变迁中发挥更重要的作用。