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11.
财政幻觉假说是公共选择理论下解释政府规模增长的理论之一。依据财政幻觉假说的经验方程,将“财政幻觉”分解为“赤字幻觉”与“预期幻觉”,以中国1978~2004年的年度数据,采用邹氏转折点检验、协整分析和误差修正模型,对“财政幻觉”与政府规模增长的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,“财政幻觉”是中国政府规模增长的原因之一,其中“赤字幻觉”的存在未得到显著证实,但“预期幻觉”对政府规模有正的显著影响。 相似文献
12.
Sample selection in radiocarbon dating 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
J. A. Christen & C. E. Buck 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》1998,47(4):543-557
Archaeologists working on the island of O'ahu, Hawai'i, use radiocarbon dating of samples of organic matter found trapped in fish-pond sediments to help them to learn about the chronology of the construction and use of the aquicultural systems created by the Polynesians. At one particular site, Loko Kuwili, 25 organic samples were obtained and funds were available to date an initial nine. However, on calibration to the calendar scale, the radiocarbon determinations provided date estimates that had very large variances. As a result, major issues of chronology remained unresolved and the archaeologists were faced with the prospect of another expensive programme of radiocarbon dating. This paper presents results of research that tackles the problems associated with selecting samples from those which are still available. Building on considerable recent research that utilizes Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to aid archaeologists in their radiocarbon calibration and interpretation, we adopt the standard Bayesian framework of risk functions, which allows us to assess the optimal samples to be sent for dating. Although rather computer intensive, our algorithms are simple to implement within the Bayesian radiocarbon framework that is already in place and produce results that are capable of direct interpretation by the archaeologists. By dating just three more samples from Loko Kuwili the expected variance on the date of greatest interest could be substantially reduced. 相似文献
13.
14.
This article suggests an efficient method of estimating a rare sensitive attribute which is assumed following Poisson distribution by using three-stage unrelated randomized response model instead of the Land et al. model (2011) when the population consists of some different sized clusters and clusters selected by probability proportional to size(:pps) sampling. A rare sensitive parameter is estimated by using pps sampling and equal probability two-stage sampling when the parameter of a rare unrelated attribute is assumed to be known and unknown.We extend this method to the case of stratified population by applying stratified pps sampling and stratified equal probability two-stage sampling. An empirical study is carried out to show the efficiency of the two proposed methods when the parameter of a rare unrelated attribute is assumed to be known and unknown. 相似文献
15.
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(3):295-305
The small-sample bias and root mean squared error of several distribution-free estimators of the variance of the sample median are examined. A new estimator is proposed that is easy to compute and tends to have the smallest bias and root mean squared error. 相似文献
16.
Consider k( ? 2) normal populations whose means are all known or unknown and whose variances are unknown. Let σ2[1] ? ??? ? σ[k]2 denote the ordered variances. Our goal is to select a non empty subset of the k populations whose size is at most m(1 ? m ? k ? 1) so that the population associated with the smallest variance (called the best population) is included in the selected subset with a guaranteed minimum probability P* whenever σ2[2]/σ[1]2 ? δ* > 1, where P* and δ* are specified in advance of the experiment. Based on samples of size n from each of the populations, we propose and investigate a procedure called RBCP. We also derive some asymptotic results for our procedure. Some comparisons with an earlier available procedure are presented in terms of the average subset sizes for selected slippage configurations based on simulations. The results are illustrated by an example. 相似文献
17.
《The American statistician》2012,66(4):321-326
ABSTRACTA statistical test can be seen as a procedure to produce a decision based on observed data, where some decisions consist of rejecting a hypothesis (yielding a significant result) and some do not, and where one controls the probability to make a wrong rejection at some prespecified significance level. Whereas traditional hypothesis testing involves only two possible decisions (to reject or not a null hypothesis), Kaiser’s directional two-sided test as well as the more recently introduced testing procedure of Jones and Tukey, each equivalent to running two one-sided tests, involve three possible decisions to infer the value of a unidimensional parameter. The latter procedure assumes that a point null hypothesis is impossible (e.g., that two treatments cannot have exactly the same effect), allowing a gain of statistical power. There are, however, situations where a point hypothesis is indeed plausible, for example, when considering hypotheses derived from Einstein’s theories. In this article, we introduce a five-decision rule testing procedure, equivalent to running a traditional two-sided test in addition to two one-sided tests, which combines the advantages of the testing procedures of Kaiser (no assumption on a point hypothesis being impossible) and Jones and Tukey (higher power), allowing for a nonnegligible (typically 20%) reduction of the sample size needed to reach a given statistical power to get a significant result, compared to the traditional approach. 相似文献
18.
Ofir Harari Grace Hsu Louis Dron Jay J. H. Park Kristian Thorlund Edward J. Mills 《Pharmaceutical statistics》2021,20(2):256-271
The Bayesian paradigm provides an ideal platform to update uncertainties and carry them over into the future in the presence of data. Bayesian predictive power (BPP) reflects our belief in the eventual success of a clinical trial to meet its goals. In this paper we derive mathematical expressions for the most common types of outcomes, to make the BPP accessible to practitioners, facilitate fast computations in adaptive trial design simulations that use interim futility monitoring, and propose an organized BPP-based phase II-to-phase III design framework. 相似文献
19.
Martin Huber 《Econometric Reviews》2014,33(8):869-905
Sample selection and attrition are inherent in a range of treatment evaluation problems such as the estimation of the returns to schooling or training. Conventional estimators tackling selection bias typically rely on restrictive functional form assumptions that are unlikely to hold in reality. This paper shows identification of average and quantile treatment effects in the presence of the double selection problem into (i) a selective subpopulation (e.g., working—selection on unobservables) and (ii) a binary treatment (e.g., training—selection on observables) based on weighting observations by the inverse of a nested propensity score that characterizes either selection probability. Weighting estimators based on parametric propensity score models are applied to female labor market data to estimate the returns to education. 相似文献
20.
Muhammad Nouman Qureshi Cem Kadilar Muhammad Noor Ul Amin Muhammad Hanif 《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2018,88(14):2761-2774
The use of robust measures helps to increase the precision of the estimators, especially for the estimation of extremely skewed distributions. In this article, a generalized ratio estimator is proposed by using some robust measures with single auxiliary variable under the adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) design. We have incorporated tri-mean (TM), mid-range (MR) and Hodges-Lehman (HL) of the auxiliary variable as robust measures together with some conventional measures. The expressions of bias and mean square error (MSE) of the proposed generalized ratio estimator are derived. Two types of numerical study have been conducted using artificial clustered population and real data application to examine the performance of the proposed estimator over the usual mean per unit estimator under simple random sampling (SRS). Related results of the simulation study show that the proposed estimators provide better estimation results on both real and artificial population over the competing estimators. 相似文献