农村计划生育与农民生活满意度研究

基于6个省1586户农户的问卷调查数据,运用次序Logit模型,探讨农村计划生育、农村卫生事业、区域环境特征、农民个人特征、家庭特征对农民生活满意度的影响。结果表明,农村计划生育的两个因素中只有是否享受奖扶政策对农民生活满意度有显著影响,是否受过超生惩罚对农民生活满意度没有显著影响,农村卫生事业的两个因素,参加新型合作医疗制度以后看病是否改善和医疗支出负担对农民生活满意度都有显著的影响。根据分析结果提出以下政策建议:在今后的农村公共事业发展中,政府应渐进增加农村公共事业支出比重,进一步完善利益导向政策体系,适当提高奖励扶助标准,加大对农村超生家庭的处罚力度,使惩罚标准与收入及财产相对应。     

A simple method for estimating parameters of the location–scale distribution family

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the parameters of the location–scale distribution family. As a special case, the method is used for estimating the parameters of the normal distribution and Cauchy distribution. For the Cauchy distribution, neither the moment estimation method nor the maximum likelihood estimation method works properly for estimating the parameters. The quantiles for obtaining confidence intervals and point estimates for the parameters of the two-parameter Cauchy distribution are given in the paper. It is shown that the estimators obtained in this paper are unbiased with respect to the median and possess some optimal properties.     

Residual life estimation based on nonlinear-multivariate Wiener processes

For some operable products with critical reliability constraints, it is important to estimate accurately their residual lives so that maintenance actions can be arranged suitably and efficiently. In the literature, most publications have dealt with this issue by only considering one-dimensional degradation data. However, this may be not reasonable in situations wherein a product may have two or more performance characteristics (PCs). In such situations, multi-dimensional degradation data should be taken into account. Here, for the target product with multivariate PCs, methods of residual life (RL) estimation are developed. This is done with the assumption that the degradation of PCs over time is governed by a multivariate Wiener process with nonlinear drifts. Both the population-based degradation information and the degradation history of the target product up-to-date are combined to estimate the RL of the product. Specifically, the population-based degradation information is first used to obtain the estimates of the unknown parameters of the model through the EM algorithm. Then, the degradation history of the target product is adopted to update the degradation model, based on which the RL is estimated accordingly. To illustrate the validity and the usefulness of the proposed method, a numerical example about fatigue cracks is finally presented and analysed.     

Double bootstrap estimation of variance under systematic sampling with probability proportional to size

Variance estimation under systematic sampling with probability proportional to size is known to be a difficult problem. We attempt to tackle this problem by the bootstrap resampling method. It is shown that the usual way to bootstrap fails to give satisfactory variance estimates. As a remedy, we propose a double bootstrap method which is based on certain working models and involves two levels of resampling. Unlike existing methods which deal exclusively with the Horvitz–Thompson estimator, the double bootstrap method can be used to estimate the variance of any statistic. We illustrate this within the context of both mean and median estimation. Empirical results based on five natural populations are encouraging.     

一心二门式的儒家复性思想评析

先秦儒家的告子性无善恶论、孟子性善论、荀子性恶论皆把人性单一化,不能合理地说明人性的构成及人行善或作恶的原因。儒家"一心开二门"模式的性善情恶复性论认为,人性具有先天善性和后天恶情两种因素,由一体之心开出性情二门,主张以复性的方式去掉恶情回复善性。复性就是由后天之恶情向先天之善性复性。一心二门、性善情恶的复性论是人向善复性的基础和道德教化的根本,为弃恶从善的道德教化和人生修养提供了依据。     

农村老年人生活满意度实证分析——以苏北5市1008个样本为例

提高农村老年人生活满意度有助于促进社会和谐发展。采用二元Logistic模型对影响农村老年人生活满意度的因素进行计量分析,研究发现:居住方式、子女是否孝顺、受教育程度、职业、是否定期检查身体及身体状况等变量对农村老年人生活满意度影响显著。据此,分别从家庭、个人、政府等方面对提高农村老年人生活满意度提出相应对策。     

关于中国特色社会主义“特色”问题理解

中国特色社会主义理论的提出和实践,使得我国的社会主义已经不再仅仅局限于经典社会主义的范畴,而是拥有自己"特色"的社会主义,这种社会主义更加切合当今中国实际。因此,为了更好地坚持中国特色社会主义道路以利于中国向更高的社会主义发展,需要从理论上弄清:中国特色社会主义"特色"的涵义,中国特色社会主义"特色"的依据,中国特色社会主义应注意的实践问题。     

城乡老年人生活需求满足状况及其对生活满意度的影响——以贵阳市1518份问卷调查为例

利用2010年8月对贵阳市1 518份60岁及以上老年人的调查数据,分析了老年人在经济支持、医疗保健、生活照料、精神慰藉、社会交往和居住安排6个方面生活需求的满足状况,并将它们作为老年人生活满意度的影响因素纳入多元回归分析模型,分析结果发现:经济支持的满足程度是影响老年人生活满意度的最强变量,居住安排没有影响,其他4个方面的影响强度依次是:生活照料、医疗保健、社会交往、精神慰藉。从城乡来看,经济支持的满足程度是影响城镇老年人生活满意度的最强变量,但影响农村老年人生活满意度最强的变量则是生活照料。     

辽景宗的治国思想与实践

辽景宗耶律贤是我国北方历史上一位有所作为的皇帝,他顺应时代潮流,审时度势,在继承皇位后,在皇后萧绰的辅佐下,革除旧制之弊端,推行新制,形成了较为丰富的治国思想,并付诸实践。主要表现在继承传统,射猎尚武;平定内乱,安抚诸部;安边修好,与宋议和;厉行法治,整顿吏治;重用人才,用人不疑;减免租赋,改革税制;纳谏求言,信赏必罚。他的治国思想及采取的措施收到了一定成效,为圣宗之兴奠定了基础,对辽代社会产生了较为深刻的影响。     

评中国共产党执政以来的三个精神品质——纪念中国共产党建党九十周年

"全心全意为人民服务的精神、永不停歇的发展理念、与时俱进的意识品质"是中国共产党执政以来的重要精神品质。中国共产党能够战胜前进道路上的种种困难并积累下丰富的经验,执政能力能够不断地得到提高,建设中国特色社会主义事业能够不断取得新的成就,这些精神品质起到了不可或缺的保障作用,也必将引领我党带领全体华夏儿女取得新的更大的胜利。