Selecting the better binomial population under a budget constraint

The problem of optimal non-sequential allocation of observations for the selection of the better binomial population is considered in the case of fixed sampling costs and budget. With the appropriate choice of selection rule it is shown that a 70% reduction in the probability of incorrect selection is possible by using an unequal rather than equal allocation. Simple formulae are given for the appropriate selection rule and unequal allocation in large samples.     

Main effect plan for 2m factorials which allow search and estimation of one unknown effect

In this paper, we discuss resolution III plans for 2^m factorial experiments which have an additional property. We relax the classical assumption that all the interactions are negligible by assuming that (at most) one of them may be nonnegligible. Which interaction is nonnegligible is unknown. We discuss designs which allow the search and estimation of this interaction, along with the estimation of the general mean and the main effects as in the classical resolution III designs.     

Normal random numbers lying on spirals and clubs

Two methods for transforming uniformly distributed random numbers into normally distributed random numbers are considered in conjunction with linear congruential generators. The two-dimensional lattice structure of the uniform random numbers is transformed by the Box-Muller method into a spiral structure and by the polar method into a club-shaped structure. The approximation of the two-dimensional normal distribution and the independence of the associated random variables are discussed.     

Selection of regressors in econometrics: parametric and nonparametric methods selection of regressors in econometrics

The present paper addresses the selection-of-regressors issue into a general discrimination framework. We show how this framework is useful in unifying various procedures for selecting regressors and helpful in understanding the different strategies underlying these procedures. We review selection of regressors in linear, nonlinear and nonparametric regression models. In each case we successively consider model selection criteria and hypothesis testing procedures.     

Gamma-minimax results for the class of unimodal priors

Olman and Shmundak proved 1985 that in estimating a bounded normal mean under squared error loss the Bayes estimator with respect to the uniform distribution on the parameter interval is gamma-minimax when the parameter interval is sufficiently small and the class of priors consists of all symmetric and unimodal distributions. Recently, one of the authors showed that this result remains valid for quite general families of distributions which satisfy some regularity conditions. In the present paper a generalization to the class of unimodal priors with fixed mode is derived. It is proved that the Bayes estimator with respect to a suitable mixture of two uniform distributions is gamma-minimax for sufficiently small parameter intervals. To that end appropriate characterizations of a saddle point in the corresponding statistical games are established. Some results of a numerical study are presented.     

The Unbearable Fatigue of Compassion: Notes from a Substance Abuse Counselor Who Dreams of Working at Starbuck’s

Current research has determined that a larger percent of social workers and other counselors are affected by PTSD types of symptoms when working with traumatized clients than the general population. While much of this research addresses workers in specific trauma areas like sexual assault centers or child welfare agencies, little specific thought has been given towards the special stress that working with Substance Abuse Disorders (SA) and trauma may present. This paper takes a brief look at the issues of vicarious trauma and compassion fatigue with SA practice and describes future investigation pathways toward this goal.

亚圣的“仁政”与“善教”——解读《孟子》

《孟子》是记录孟子言行的一部儒家经典著作。历代学者对《孟子》的成书主要有三种不同观点：其一,该书由孟子及其弟子合著;其二,该书由孟子自著;其三,该书由弟子追述而成。孟子的仁政主张、性善论和教育观,表现出孟子率直的个性和重教思想,这跟孔子开创的儒家学说是一脉相承的,并对后世产生了深远的影响。     

Risk Management in Public–Private Partnership Contracts

Public–private partnerships (PPPs) allow private companies to build, own and operate public projects such as schools and hospitals on behalf of the public sector. PPP contracts commonly require the private agent to take responsibilities for the performance of the asset over a long term, at least for a significant part of its useful life, so that efficiencies arising from long-term investment and asset management can be realized. However, the evidence is finely balanced on the effectiveness of such initiatives in obtaining the intended goals. This brings to the fore the challenge of designing and implementing innovative partnership plans to manage public services more effectively. More emphasis needs to be placed on strategies for the transfer of risk for the successful conclusion of PPP contracts.

Discrete associated kernels method and extensions

Discrete kernel estimation of a probability mass function (p.m.f.), often mentioned in the literature, has been far less investigated in comparison with continuous kernel estimation of a probability density function (p.d.f.). In this paper, we are concerned with a general methodology of discrete kernels for smoothing a p.m.f. f. We give a basic of mathematical tools for further investigations. First, we point out a generalizable notion of discrete associated kernel which is defined at each point of the support of f and built from any parametric discrete probability distribution. Then, some properties of the corresponding estimators are shown, in particular pointwise and global (asymptotical) properties. Other discrete kernels are constructed from usual discrete probability distributions such as Poisson, binomial and negative binomial. For small samples sizes, underdispersed discrete kernel estimators are more interesting than the empirical estimator; thus, an importance of discrete kernels is illustrated. The choice of smoothing bandwidth is classically investigated according to cross-validation and, novelly, to excess of zeros methods. Finally, a unification way of this method concerning the general probability function is discussed.     

Evaluating manufacturer's buyback policies in a single-period two-echelon framework under price-dependent stochastic demand

This paper attempts to model the profitability of a secondary market, in a newsvendor setting, to a profit-maximizing manufacturer, who is offering to the retailer a buyback policy for the unsold merchandise left at the end of the selling season. With a buyback agreement, the manufacturer shares the risks of demand uncertainty, thus inducing the buyer to place larger orders. The manufacturer's risk is mitigated to some extent by the availability of an extra market to dispose off the unsold merchandise. Both parties are risk-neutral profit-maximizers and both have the same information about the final demand for the product and its uncertainty. The manufacturer's decision is to arrive at an optimal wholesale price and the buyback price. Based on this offer, the retailer in turn sets the optimal amount of merchandise to purchase, as well as the unit selling price to meet a price-dependent uncertain demand for the merchandise in question. Due to the difficulty of obtaining analytical results, we have undertaken a numerical analysis to (i) compare the optimal policies across demand functions and error structures for three situations namely the no-incentive case and the buyback policies with and without a secondary market; (ii) indicate the conditions whereby the trade incentive is beneficial to both parties; (iii) assess the efficacy of the policies using two other performance indices (probability of achieving a target profit, and pass-through ratios) alternate to profit maximization; and (iv) conjecture the conditions for successful buyback policies and the nature of the benefits from the secondary market.