A port in a storm: Spontaneous volunteering and grassroots movements in Amsterdam. A resilient approach to the (European) refugee crisis

This article seeks to expand knowledge about spontaneous volunteering in Amsterdam during the European refugee crisis in the winter of 2015–16. As formal institutions, which relied on a top–down command and control approach, were unable to handle the relatively large number of refugees who arrived in a short period of time, grassroots social movements based on bottom–up participation emerged. Grassroots volunteers were not only politically engaged, protesting against the strict refugee reception policy, but they also became involved in the crisis response, showing a great deal of flexibility. Although the social movements struggled with their organizational structures, they were able to adapt their missions and structures to changing circumstances. To achieve a resilience‐based response to future refugee influxes, this article advocates for formal response organizations to dismantle their static, top–down approach, and for social movements to find a balance between participation and professionalism. If institutionalized refugee response organizations adapt to the dynamics of local conditions, they could create the conditions for resilient solutions in the crisis context.     

从阶级革命论到技术决定论——浅析高兹对马克思资本主义分析方法的改进

高兹的生态学马克思主义的哲学思想深受马克思理论的影响,继承了马克思对资本主义的经济分析和阶级分析的方法,丰富和发展了马克思关于资本主义危机的理论、异化理论和对社会主义的设想,对马克思的技术中性论和无产阶级革命理论亦有不同的理解.     

超越西化——论胡秋原的西方文化观及其意义

胡秋原根据历史事实指出,中国文化曾经长期领先于西方文化,这种格局在17世纪才发生逆转。通过广泛深入研究西方文化,他认为西方文化在近四百年发展繁荣的后期已经陷入深刻危机,并进而危及整个人类;导致西方文化危机的原因在于资本主义、科学主义畸变为势利主义、虚无主义,而近代西方启蒙价值在这种文化背景中或根本未能落实,或发生扭曲,故对于这种文化必须予以扬弃的超越。胡秋原揭露西方文化危机的主要目的在于矫正本国西化人物崇西贬中甚至趋西弃中的心态,由此表达的"超越西化"思想具有不容忽视的现实意义。     

全球性股市恐慌下的股市日内风险传染:来自欧债危机时期的证据

本文主要着眼于全球性股市恐慌下的中国内地与中国香港、中国台湾、日本股市之间的日内风险传染现象,使用日内5分钟数据,应用FFF回归、FIEGARCH模型、ARFIMAX模型的波动溢出三步检验法,对内地股市与其他三个东亚股市之间的日内波动溢出效应进行了实证分析.本文的主要结论是:中国内地与中国香港股市之间存在着强烈的双向波动溢出效应;中国内地与日本股市互不影响;中国内地与中国台湾股市之间,虽然在非恐慌时期几乎不存在波动溢出效应,但进入恐慌时期后中国台湾股市显著受到内地股市影响.股票市场之间的波动溢出效应具有非对称性特征,并且股市下跌时的波动溢出效应比上涨时要大.     

基于非参数时变Copula模型的美国次贷危机传染分析

金融危机传染分析是国际金融领域中的重要课题,本文对Copula变点检测方法进行推广,采用时变非参数阿基米德Copula模型检验金融危机传染的存在性及其变化趋势,以时变尾部相依系数的大小来度量危机传染程度,并结合系数的变化趋势和时间段对金融危机传染效应进行分析.最后选择全球六个主要股票市场指数和S&P500指数进行危机传染实证研究,得出次贷危机对不同国家或地区的传染效应有所差别.     

Introduction to the Special Issue on Humanitarian Operations and Crisis Management

The Genesis of this Special Issue came from the Board of the POMS College on Humanitarian Operations and Crisis Management (HO&CM). It was seen as a necessary initiative to define the field and examine research opportunities. This Special Issue shows that humanitarian operations pose challenges for P/OM researchers and practitioners that differ markedly from those of conventional supply chains associated with profitable enterprises. On the basis of the eight articles in this Special Issue, we have described and demonstrated the unique characteristics of the POM/HO&CM interaction. We have also identified those attributes that tend to overlap with conventional aspects of POM. In addition to wanting to be cost effective, the issue of equity fairness is pervasive in humanitarian operations, and so is the need to always base considerations on “last‐mile logistics,” that is, getting aid to those in most need. Research is essential to determine how to train researchers to scout out and map the territory of the real problems. One of the most vexing problems is the lack of robust data in the humanitarian domain which is as richly varied as the types of disasters that can occur.     

企业财务危机预警双基点距离比值法

本文介绍了国内外主要企业财务危机预警模型,对模型的空间几何意义进行解释。提出了企业财务危机预警双基点距离比值模型,该模型采用非线性方法对危机企业与非危机企业的财务指标集合进行分割。用112例样本实证,预警识别率达到92.8%。     

商品金融化背景下大宗商品指数收益机制转换

基于虚拟变量Markov机制转换模型,选取具有代表性的国际商品指数-标普高盛商品指数(S&P GSCI)及道琼斯大宗商品指数(DJCI)为研究对象,探寻大宗商品指数收益率机制转换出现的规律与诱因.实证结果表明:修正后的模型能较好地反映大宗商品指数收益率波动性呈现出的“中-高-中高-低-中”的阶段性变化,在阶段变换的拐点处商品指数呈现出具有转折意义的“V”形走势;金融危机前后的流动性冲击改变机制转化的概率.研究结果可以为预测大宗商品市场走势及阶段性转折点提供参考.     

群体性突发事件中政府机会主义行为的演化博弈分析

群体性突发事件成为影响当前我国社会稳定和实现现代化平稳过渡的重要因素,但是研究主要是基于实践经验的概述和总结分析上,缺少合适的理论分析工具揭示群体性突发事件的演化规律和发展特征。本文尝试运用演化博弈理论建立了地方政府部门与社会弱势群体之间的演化博弈模型,分析了地方政府部门机会主义行为导致的群体性突发事件呈现扩大化的趋势。研究结果表明:(1)如果社会弱势群体的情绪和行动尚未激化,至多停留在集体上访或集会等体制内平和的诉求手段,机会主义的地方政府将采取高压强硬策略;此时博弈均衡结果是(妥协或平和诉求,强硬);(2)一旦弱势群体中出现少数分子采取了"打砸抢"等暴力抗争的行动,由于机会主义政府转而做出较大让步,从而诱导其他弱势成员相继采取暴力抗争行动,事态反而进一步呈现扩大趋势。因此,群体性突发事件处置过程中,地方政府的机会主义行为不仅延误事件处置的最佳时机,而且直接导致了事态的扩大化。最后结合数值分析和瓮安事件案例,剖析了地方政府部门采取的机会主义应急处置措施,以及本文理论模型的适用范围。