高技术复杂度中间品进口会加剧制造业中间品进口依赖吗?

本文在测度制造业和服务业中间品进口技术复杂度的基础上,剖析了中间品进口技术复杂度对中间品进口依赖的作用机制及其作用渠道,并进一步分析了中间品进口技术复杂度对经济量增和质增的作用机制。得到的结论主要有:一是高技术复杂度中间品进口会加剧一国的中间品进口依赖,该结论在多维度检验中均稳健成立,这一机制不仅有助于高技术中间品先发企业成为制衡全球价值链的链主,还容易导致高技术复杂度中间品后发企业成为全球价值链的被俘获者和尾随者;二是高技术复杂度中间品进口通过抑制制造业的资本积累和科研人员规模扩大来加剧高技术复杂度中间品进口国的中间品进口依赖,中国的制造业和服务业中间品进口技术复杂度远高于自身经济发展水平,这使得中国承受的中间品进口依赖压力可能远高于其他国家;三是高技术复杂度中间品进口是经济量增和质增的重要推动力量,促进经济量增和质增战略与降低中间品进口依赖战略之间存在潜在冲突,这一潜在冲突也证实了中国当前以国内大循环为主体发展战略的科学性和正确性。     

Customer Behavior in an Online Ordering Application: A Decision Scoring Model*

This research presents the development of behavioral scoring models to predict future customer purchases in an online ordering application. Internet retailing lowers many barriers for customers switching between retailers for repeat purchases; thus, retaining existing customers is a key challenge for achieving profitability. Survey data were collected from 1,089 online customers of two companies. The subjective survey data were then used to predict purchases over the ensuing 12 months based on data from the company databases. The analysis illustrates the general applicability of predictive models of future customer purchases while also demonstrating the need to develop specific models tailored for an individual company's operating and marketing environment. The models provide insight on how companies can target marketing dollars more effectively and allocate investment across multiple operational areas for maximum return. The research answers a call for rigorous research in the area of predictive marketing, an area in which many companies are excelling but where there is a scarcity of detailed knowledge regarding application of such models.     

Cross‐training Decisions in Field Services with Three Job Types and Server–Job Mismatch*

To be cost‐effective, field service managers must balance the high cost of machine downtime with the high cost of cross‐training technicians in multiple skills. We study a field service system with three job types requiring three different skills. Each server has a primary skill, the cost of which is considered sunk, and up to two secondary skills, which is a managerial decision. We model two important characteristics that distinguish field services: server–job mismatch and the ratio of travel time to service time. We use a queueing framework and simulation to study three cross‐training decisions: the number of servers cross‐trained in secondary skills, the number of secondary skills each server should have, and the efficiency in each secondary skill. We find that complete cross‐training is cost‐effective in some field service situations. Typically, efficiency in secondary skills must be close to 100%, but when the probability of mismatch is high and the ratio of travel time to service time is high, efficiency in secondary skills must be less than 100%.     

Ability of Experience Design Elements to Elicit Emotions and Loyalty Behaviors

Experience design, an approach to create emotional connection with guests or customers through careful planning of tangible and intangible service elements, has gained popularity in many hospitality and retail businesses. With ever‐increasing competition, service providers seek to develop loyalty by aggressively designing, continuously innovating, and managing their customer experiences. This article explores the relationship between different service elements designed to create enhanced experience and customer loyalty. In addition, it looks at emotional responses as mediating factors between the physical and relational elements and loyalty behaviors. A model is proposed and tested with a VIP hospitality tent for an internationally renowned touring circus. Results of the study indicate that while a few design elements directly affect loyalty behavior, the relationship between most design elements and loyalty behavior is strongly mediated by eliciting certain types of emotional behavior. This connection has implications for the focus of service managers' efforts in different environments.     

A Mathematical Model of Service Failure and Recovery Strategies*

Understanding the nature of service failures and their impact on customer responses and designing cost‐effective recovery strategies have been recognized as important issues by both service researchers and practitioners. We first propose a conceptual framework of service failure and recovery strategies. We then transform it into a mathematical model to assist managers in deciding on appropriate resource allocations for outcome and process recovery strategies based on customer risk profiles and the firm's cost structures. Based on this mathematical model we derive optimal recovery strategies, conduct sensitivity analyses of the optimal solutions for different model parameters, and illustrate them through numerical examples. We conclude with a discussion of managerial implications and directions for future research.     

Restaurant Revenue Management at Chevys: Determining the Best Table Mix

Revenue management has been used in a variety of industries and generally takes the form of managing demand by manipulating length of customer usage and price. Supply mix is rarely considered, although it can have considerable impact on revenue. In this research, we focused on developing an optimal supply mix, specifically on determining the supply mix that would maximize revenue. We used data from a Chevys restaurant, part of a large chain of Mexican restaurants, in conjunction with a simulation model to evaluate and enumerate all possible supply (table) mixes. Compared to the restaurant's existing table mix, the optimal mix is capable of handling a 30% increase in customer volume without increasing waiting times beyond their original levels. While our study was in a restaurant context, the results of this research are applicable to other service businesses.     

学校社会工作与学校心理健康教育之比较研究

现今社会,心理健康问题凸显,人们对学生心理健康的重视程度也不断加深,学校心理健康教育在维持学生心理健康方面发挥着重要的作用,但其存在的问题也越来越明显。而此时,随着学校社会工作的兴起,越来越多的心理健康教育者开始重视学校社会工作在学生心理健康工作中作用。本文则以此为研究点,探讨学校社会工作与学校心理健康教育在目的、对象和方法上存在的异同,以便更好阐述学校社会工作和心理健康教育二者的地位和作用。     

Viability of Auction‐Based Revenue Management in Sequential Markets

The Internet is providing an opportunity to revenue management practitioners to exploit the potential of auctions as a new price distribution channel. We develop a stochastic model for a high‐level abstraction of a revenue management system (RMS) that allows us to understand the potential of incorporating auctions in revenue management in the presence of forecast errors associated with key parameters. Our abstraction is for an environment where two market segments book in sequence and revenue management approaches consider auctions in none, one, or both segments. Key insights from our robust results are (i) limited auctions are best employed closest to the final sale date, (ii) counterbalancing forecast errors associated with overall traffic intensity and the proportion of customer arrivals in a segment is more important if an auction is adopted in that segment, and (iii) it is critically important not to err on the side of overestimating market willingness to pay.     

美国青年组织审视

以美国的Youth Outreach Services为案例,深入剖析、审视美国青少年组织,以期获得一些有益的启示,推进共青团组织更好地开展工作,服务青少年健康成长。     

When Social Partners Unite – Explaining Continuity and Change in Austrian and Dutch Labour Market Governance

Why do Austria and the Netherlands, two highly corporatist, coordinated, consensual countries diverge with respect to the involvement of social partners in their Public Employment Service? By comparing and contrasting the competing predictions of the power‐resource, employer‐centred and social partnership approaches, we identify a key omitted variable that can explain the observed variations: the ability of the social partners to unite on reform positions. We demonstrate that when the social partners are divided, their collective power is reduced and partisan‐based policy outcomes become more pronounced. In turn, when the social partners jointly favour a particular outcome, their collective power increases and they can override governmental reform plans, even if the government holds a large legislative majority. These findings highlight the causal importance of power relations between and within the social partners for institutional continuity and change.