Bayesian break-point forecasting in parallel time series,with application to university admissions

A regular supply of applicants to Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario is provided by 65 high schools. Each high school can be characterized by a series of grading standards which change from year to year. To aid admissions decisions, it is desirable to forecast the current year's grading standards for all 65 high schools using grading standards estimated from past year's data. We develop and apply a Bayesian break-point time-series model that generates forecasts which involve smoothing across time for each school and smoothing across schools. “Break point” refers to a point in time which divides the past into the “old past” and the “recent past” where the yearly observations in the recent past are exchangeable with the observations in the year to be forecast. We show that this model works fairly well when applied to 11 years of Queen's University data. The model can be applied to other data sets with the parallel time-series structure and short history, and can be extended in several ways to more complicated structures.     

流体流法分析图像/话音综合性能的解析解

图像/话音统计复用是用于宽带综合业务数字网的异步转移模式(ATM)的一个重要课题.讨论了用流体流法获得的统计复用排队方程的求解.采用二维变换法求出了特征矩阵所对应的特征根和特征向量的解析解,接着导出了排队的幸存函数和其它统计特征参数.文中的分析得到了数值计算法并被计算机模拟所证实.     

短信传播：网络传播的有效补充与延伸

在信息传播过程中,手机短信的突出表现使人们开始将其视为"第五媒体"。本文在否定这一说法的同时,分析了短信传播在基本特征方面与网络传播的一致性,并提出短信传播可以被视为网络传播的有效补充与延伸。     

阿里克斯·马凯及其编著的《西藏历史》

本文简要介绍阿里克斯·马凯的藏学研究情况并对其编纂的《西藏历史》一书做了详细的评介。     

Capitalizing the Crisis? Explanatory Factors for the Design of Short‐time Work across Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development Countries

This article looks at the financial and economic crisis 2008–10 in 18 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development states and seeks to investigate explanatory paths for the subsidization of further education within short‐time work programmes. Several hypotheses are put to the test: first, a classical partisan difference argument; second, a varieties of capitalism approach proposing a successful joint rallying of employers and employees for subsidization in coordinated market economies; and, lastly, the merged hypothesis that right‐wing parties in a coordinated economic context might subsidize feeling the pressure to overcompensate an ‘issue ownership’ of left parties in the field of employee‐friendly policies. We identify four explanatory paths: coordinated economies in the sample subsidized when they were economically closed or highly indebted. The results also support our combined hypothesis, that New Zealand – a left‐governed liberal market economy – and right‐governed coordinated market economies of the non‐Scandinavian type subsidized.     

从冯梦龙对柳永形象的重塑看话本小说的文人化——以《众名姬春风吊柳七》对《柳耆卿诗酒玩江楼记》的改编为例

从《清平山堂话本》到“三言”,文人的参与对话本小说的发展起着至关重要的作用。以《众名姬春风吊柳七》对《柳耆卿诗酒玩江楼记》的改编为例,冯梦龙从体制、情节、语言等方面对柳永形象作了一番重塑,藉此也观见了话本小说发展史中文人化的轨迹：对话本小说体制的完善和定型化,思想主题的升华,人物形象塑造艺术的圆熟,教化性的强化,语言的雅化。     

福利机构老年人的人际关系压力问题及应对策略探析

本文采用质性研究方法,通过对北京市某社会福利机构5位老人的深度访谈搜集资料,旨在对机构老年人所面临的人际关系压力问题进行探析.研究发现,机构老年人的人际关系压力主要集中在时间安排、生活习惯、阶层差异和团体活动等方面;其原因则具有年龄、地域、性格、沟通能力、生活经历、价值观等方面的多样性;而老年人在应对这些压力的过程中表...     

社会转型时期期刊翻译文学的社会性解读——以民国初期《小说月报》为例

作为翻译文学的一个主要源头,期刊翻译小说研究远未展开。将上个世纪初大型文学期刊《小说月报》翻译小说作为一个独立的文本,以生态翻译学的叙事方式,对其译本生成的"适应"与"选择"作出客观的描述与解释,是期刊翻译研究的一种新尝试。"文学功利性"、"家族翻译行为"、"译入语杂合"、"演译"是民国初期译者适应社会转型时期的文学、语言生态系统的优化选择。     

Parental spanking and subsequent risk for child aggression in father-involved families of young children

This study examined separate and combined maternal and paternal use of spanking with children at age 3 and children's subsequent aggressive behavior at age 5. The sample was derived from a birth cohort study and included families (n = 923) in which both parents lived with the child at age 3. In this sample, 44% of 3-year-olds were spanked 2 times or more in the past month by either parent or both parents. In separate analyses, being spanked more than twice in the prior month at age 3, by either mother or father, was associated with increased child aggression at 5 years. In combined analyses, there was a dose–response association; the greatest risk for child aggression was reported when both parents spanked more than twice in the prior month (adjusted odds ratio: 2.01; [confidence interval: 1.03–3.94]). Violence prevention initiatives should target and engage mothers and fathers in anticipatory guidance efforts aimed at increasing the use of effective and non-aggressive child discipline techniques and reducing the use of spanking.     

唐代传奇中的植物形象

唐代传奇小说中出现了许多植物,其中包括自然状态的植物和能幻化的植物,唐代传奇中的植物形象对后来同类体裁小说中的植物体系产生了深远的影响。如:自然状态的植物作为景物描写中的因素、作为文中所吟诵诗句中的因素以及作为象征或隐喻而出现;能幻化的植物精怪也呈现出体系:植物精怪大多有着艳丽的容貌、悲戚的结局、善良的内心,这些精怪都与人发生了缠绵的爱情故事,植物精怪原型具有宗教性质等特点,这些植物形象所具有的丰富意蕴在后来的小说《聊斋志异》等中均有出现。