Markov-Switching and Stochastic Volatility Diffusion Models of Short-Term Interest Rates

This article empirically compares the Markov-switching and stochastic volatility diffusion models of the short rate. The evidence supports the Markov-switching diffusion model. Estimates of the elasticity of volatility parameter for single-regime models unanimously indicate an explosive volatility process, whereas the Markov-switching models estimates are reasonable. Itis found that either Markov switching or stochastic volatility, but not both, is needed to adequately fit the data. A robust conclusion is that volatility depends on the level of the short rate. Finally, the Markov-switching model is the best for forecasting. A technical contribution of this article is a presentation of quasi-maximum likelihood estimation techniques for the Markov-switching stochastic-volatility model.     

Psychosocial work environment and mental health among travelling salespeople

Travelling salespeople have a rather unusual working environment, with long periods of absence from their firm and a low level of social contacts with colleagues. Furthermore, they are exposed to high demands in their work, which may conflict with a normal family life. In this paper a cross-sectional study of psychosocial work environment and mental health of Danish travelling salespeople is described. A sample of 1,306 travelling salespeople filled in a questionnaire (response rate 68%). The results indicate that poor mental health is associated with a number of demand indicators: number of working hours per week, number of customers per week, non-day work, and a high level of perceived job demands. On the other hand, the number of hours spent with customers per week is positively associated with mental health. The authors did not find the expected associations between poor mental health and several factors such as number of hours away from firm, nights away from home, and a low degree of perceived support from colleagues and superiors. It is concluded that the main stressors of travelling salespeople are long working hours, many customers, non-day work and high perceived psychological demands in general.     

Using video vignettes in research and program evaluation for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities: A case study of the Leadership for Empowerment and Abuse Prevention (LEAP) project

People with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) are often excluded from meaningful participation in research and program evaluation for various reasons, including protocols and measures that are inaccessible for people with varying cognitive and communication abilities. Emancipatory research models emphasize the importance of inclusive research practices. Video vignettes are a promising tool for research and program evaluation with people with IDD because they are standardized, they use visual imagery rather than relying on written or verbal communication, and they allow for distance from sensitive topics. The Leadership for Empowerment and Abuse Prevention (LEAP) project used video vignettes to evaluate a healthy relationship program for people with IDD. The authors discuss the process of piloting various protocols and measures, which then ultimately led to the use of video vignettes in the evaluation.     

谈杰克·伦敦北方小说创作动因

本文试图用历史唯物主义的观点,从全新的视角对杰克·伦敦的北方系列小说的创作动因作深入细致的探究,分析导致他热衷于以荒野雪原作为小说背景的内部原因和外部原因,并从中引出若干教训.     

Awareness of Self—A Critical Tool

This paper discusses the applications of self-awareness to all levels of clinical practice, and the urgency for its development in social work students; self-reflectiveness builds clinical competence, can prevent boundary violations and burnout, and offers protection against client violence. It is a basic cornerstone for the development of the professional self, which is the foundation for evolving professional maturation. Students need guidance in becoming aware of how their own feelings, attitudes, and relationships with clients are major factors in the helping process in all service settings, and further, that helping others is in itself a process. Students are generally idealistic, and wish to ease suffering, without understanding the obstacles to be overcome, nor how they themselves would be involved in the process. Social work education, dominated by cognitive-behavioral theories and evidence-based treatments, reinforces students' own tendencies to offer advice and to provide the ‘right solution’ to clients' problems. Educational recommendations for developing self-reflectiveness include: reclaiming psychodynamic theories; emphasizing self-awareness academically and in the field; utilizing process recording; and providing special educational opportunities such as video labs and observational experiences.     

《小说月报》的"国故"研究与新文学刊物的重心转移

本文以<小说月报>在1921至1923年间有关"国故"话题的讨论与酝酿,以及体现<小说月报>"整理国故"集中成果的1927年17卷号外"中国文学研究"为考察对象,通过对这份杂志上一度呈现出的"国故"色彩的辨析,试图呈现出这一新文学重要刊物上关注未够的有关"中国文学研究"的重要方面,并由此透视新文学刊物在屡被言及的新文学创作与外国文学译介两方面成绩之外的话题转移,并牵涉出"五四"文化语境流变的复杂背景.     

FLV视频的获取、处理与教学应用

FLV视频具有高压缩、快加载、流式播放等特点．FLV视频可在网上借助于FLASH播放器播放，本地的FLV视频可使用专用或一些通用的FLV视频播放器来播放．可以通过百度、迅雷等视频搜索引擎来搜索网上的FLV视频．在线播放过的FLV视频可在Temporary Intemet Files文件夹中找到，也可以通过FLV视频下载软件直接下载．通过FLASH8动画制作软件或一些视频转换软件可以制作出FLv视频文件．用视频转换软件可以将FLV视频转换为AVI、MPEG等视频格式文件，直接插入到Powerpoint中；或者转换为SWF格式的FLASH动画，再通过Shockwave Flash Object控件嵌入在Powerpoint幻灯片中．在Macromedia Flash 8中导入FLV视频生成具有播放控制功能的SWF动画，可通过Microsoft Web浏览器控件将其导入到Powerpoint中．使用暴风影音Ⅱ的控制StormPlayer Object则可以在Powerpoint中直接导人FLV视频．在Authorware 7中，可以通过DirectMediaXtra来导入FLV视频．     

191O-1920年《小说月报》作者群的文化心态

作为民初重要的文学杂志,1910-1920年<小说月报>拥有一支非常出色的作者群.与民初社会和文化的多元景观相对应,这一作者群也呈现出极其复杂的状态和组合.悲悼和伤感情怀、道德和伦理的徘徊、爱国情绪与忧患意识、自我反思与精神的放逐是这群乱世文人文化心态的主要特征.     

手机短信语中的仿拟修辞

手机短信语是现代人信息交流的新途径。短信编写者在短信写作过程中大量使用修辞格。本文以网易、新浪网上的短信留言为基本素材,分析了作为手机短信语中常用修辞手段之一的仿拟辞格,指出短信编写者在制作短信语的过程中常仿拟其他体裁格式,达到新颖别致,幽默风趣的言语效果。     

一种协整时间序列的动态因果效应估计与推断方法

为了进一步规避经典面板数据模型因果推断方法中对照样本异质性的问题,以及中断时间序列方法可能存在的“伪回归”问题和“二阶矩平稳”等条件的限制,本文借助时间序列的协整理论,并结合误差修正模型和结构突变检验方法提出了一种基于协整时间序列的实验设计方法,扩展了政策因果效应估计与推断方法。该方法将传统的趋势平稳过程中断时间序列扩展到随机趋势过程,不仅可以推断和估计处理效应,而且解决了政策效应的暂时性和持续性识别问题;另外,协整时间序列的因果效应推断方法更适用于不存在有效对照样本的政策因果效应分析。此外,本文评估了上海市和重庆市的房地产税试点政策,研究发现,长期来看试点政策对两市的商品房价格增长具有抑制作用,但政策效应表现出显著的差异性,上海市的试点政策对抑制房价上涨的力度大、起效快速,但重庆市的房产税政策存在较长期的时滞。