高云览《小城春秋》的创作艺术

《小城春秋》的艺术经验就是：把真实生活作为文学素材,在广泛借鉴的基础上进行创造,主动寻求批评,容纳各种意见,慎重取舍,化史入诗达到艺术精品。高云览的创作实践启示我们：正确处理生活与艺术的关系、继承与创造的关系、表达与修改的关系、创作与批评的关系。     

Prevalence,incidence and risk factors of testosterone deficiency in a population-based cohort of men: results from the study of health in Pomerania

Objective.?Low total testosterone levels (TT) have been associated with increased morbidity and mortality. However, the prevalence and incidence of testosterone deficiency (TD) in association with its risk has not been assessed systematically to date.

Methods.?Data from the prospective population-based Study of Health in Pomerania were used. From the 2117 men aged 20–79 years at baseline, 1490 men with complete TT data were analysed. Crude and age-specific prevalence and incidence rates of TD were estimated by TT levels below the age-specific 10th percentile. Analysis of covariance and Poisson regression models were used to assess the association of socio-demographic characteristics, health-related lifestyle, as well as somatometric, medical and laboratory measures with risk of incident TD.

Results.?TD baseline prevalence was 10.4% (N?=?155) and incidence 11.7 per 1000 person-years. TT levels showed a significant age-related decline with an unadjusted rate of 0.05 nmol/l per year. Obesity, metabolic syndrome, diabetes and dyslipidaemia were identified as risk factors of incident TD. Subpopulations of men without the revealed risk factors at both examinations maintained constant TT levels over time.

Conclusions.?Besides aging alone, lifestyle and different comorbidities were associated with TT level decline, suggesting that the age-related TT decline may be at least partly prevented through the management of potentially modifiable risk factors and health related behaviour.     

Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain:

Two diseases, osteoporosis and osteoarthritis, are responsible for a majority of the chronic musculoskeletal pain that older women experience. Osteoporosis is the metabolic bone disease most common in older women and is responsible for fractures, kyphosis, and chronic pain. Osteoarthritis, the most commonly diagnosed musculoskeletal problem in older women, causes degeneration of the weight-bearing joints in the body, resulting in limited function and chronic pain. In this paper, these and other common disorders are briefly described and typical coping strategies used by older women in pain are reviewed. In addition, potential multidisciplinary treatment regimens are discussed.     

小城镇发展与财政建设非良性互动问题研究

小城镇发展与财政建设是一种动态的、相互作用、相互制约的循环关系。目前我国东西部不发达地区普遍存在着小城镇财权与事权不对称、财政性资金管理混乱、财政收支结构不合理、财政负债严重等影响小城镇发展的典型问题,从根本上抑制着小城镇财政建设和可持续发展之间的良性互动作用的充分发挥。文章从小城镇经济发展水平、财政管理体制和行政管理体制三方面深入分析原因,指出小城镇发展与财政建设非良性互动的症结之所在,提出促进小城镇发展与财政建设良性互动的改革方案。     

Small area estimation for longitudinal surveys

Over the last few years many studies have been carried out in Italy to identify reliable small area labour force indicators. Considering the rotated sample design of the Italian Labour Force Survey, the aim of this work is to derive a small area estimator which borrows strength from individual temporal correlation, as well as from related areas. Two small area estimators are derived as extensions of an estimation strategies proposed by Fuller (1990) for partial overlap samples. A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the gain in efficiency provided by our solutions. Results obtained for different levels of autocorrelation between repeated measurements on the same outcome and different population settings show that these estimators are always more reliable than the traditional composite one, and in some circumstances they are extremely advantageous.The present paper is financially supported by Murst-Cofin (2001) Lutilizzo di informazioni di tipo amministrativo nella stima per piccole aree e per sottoinsiemi della popolazione (National Coordinator Prof. Carlo Filippucci).     

Prevalence Rates of Youth Gambling Problems: Are the Current Rates Inflated?

While there is a general consensus in the literature that it is common for youth to gamble, considerable variability in the reported prevalence rates of youth problem gambling has been found. More recently, issues concerning the possible overestimation of these rates have been raised. Arguments underlying the proposition that problem gambling rates for youth are inflated are examined. It is acknowledged that more rigorous research is required, including the need for the development and refinement of current adolescent instruments and screening tools, agreement upon a gold standard criterion for adolescent problem gambling, and clarity of nomenclature issues. The advancement of scientific knowledge concerning the underlying risk factors associated with the onset and course of youth gambling involvement and the role of effective adolescent prevention and treatment programs will require these fundamental research questions to be addressed.     

Small area estimation: the EBLUP estimator based on spatially correlated random area effects

This paper deals with small area indirect estimators under area level random effect models when only area level data are available and the random effects are correlated. The performance of the Spatial Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (SEBLUP) is explored with a Monte Carlo simulation study on lattice data and it is applied to the results of the sample survey on Life Conditions in Tuscany (Italy). The mean squared error (MSE) problem is discussed illustrating the MSE estimator in comparison with the MSE of the empirical sampling distribution of SEBLUP estimator. A clear tendency in our empirical findings is that the introduction of spatially correlated random area effects reduce both the variance and the bias of the EBLUP estimator. Despite some residual bias, the coverage rate of our confidence intervals comes close to a nominal 95%.     

Understanding the 2001 UK census migration and commuting data: the effect of small cell adjustment and problems of comparison with 1991

Summary.  Origin–destination statistics have been produced from the last three UK censuses. The paper describes what is new about the 2001 census interaction data on migration and commuting, considers the disclosure control methods that were applied to cells containing small values and demonstrates the problems that are associated with making comparisons with 1991 data. The effect of small cell adjustment procedures on the interaction data sets is investigated by means of selective analyses at different spatial scales. Some recommendations are made in light of the problems that were manifest in 2001.     

Regression Modelling of Disease Risk in Relation to Point Sources

We describe a class of models for the investigation of possible raised risk of disease around putative sources of environmental pollution. An adaptation of the point process method suggested by Diggle and Rowlingson is presented, allowing the use of routinely available aggregated data and incorporating the more general distance–risk model suggested by Elliott and co-workers. An application to data on cancers of the stomach around municipal solid waste incinerators is presented.     

我国中小企业融资需求与资本结构选择研究——基于中小上市公司的实证检验

通过对影响中小企业融资需求与资本结构选择的特征因素进行逻辑分类,通过样本选择来控制一定层面的特征因素,进而对中小企业融资需求与资本结构选择进行一般性研究。研究发现我国中小企业的融资需求偏好股权融资,中小企业规模、成长性、市场竞争能力、盈利性、非债务税盾与资产担保价值对中小企业融资需求与资本结构选择具有重要影响揭示了尽管资本市场拓宽了中小企业的融资渠道,股权融资需求得到较大程度的满足,但是并不能满足中小企业成长性融资的内在需求,高成长企业被迫选择以银行信贷为主的债权性融资,从而带来财务杠杆的提高,增大企业财务风险,因此对于本身就具有高风险的中小企业来说,提高风险价值管理水平,科学进行融资决策具有至关重要的意义。