推进农村信息化，带动小城镇、乡镇企业、农业产业化三者互动发展

小城镇、乡镇企业、农业产业化三者互动发展是我国农业和农村经济发展的有效途径。文章就小城镇、乡镇企业、农业产业化三者互动发展过程中信息技术和信息化的作用及目前我国农村信息化和信息服务方面的问题进行了分析,并针对存在问题提出加强农村信息化建设的思路和对策。     

Estimating the Prevalence of Illegal Drug Use

A generic globally applicable integral equation allows the estimation of hidden drug use. Formulas for estimating the prevalence of drug use are provided for both the assumed and known latency period. Estimates of prevalence of opiate use in Ireland ranging from 7,955 [5,789, 10,122] to 11,986 [8,792, 15,181] with prevalence rates ranging from 2.7 [2.0, 3.5] per 1,000 to 4.1 [3.0, 5.2] were obtained. The model can be implemented by service providers and planners if numbers of first treatments for drug use and the latency period are known or assumed.     

《诗经·小雅·大田》主旨辨析

关于《诗经·小雅·大田》的主旨,众说纷纭,主要有“刺幽王”、“颂美”、“省敛”、“祭祀”等几种说法。其中“祭祀”说细分为“报祭”和“因农事而及祭祀”两类。经过分析文本的字词、内在逻辑以及联系古老的蜡词,《大田》乃贵族为祈年而祭祀田祖之诗。     

我国小城镇生态环境建设研究简

小城镇建设是国家宏观经济管理的重要组成部分,更是新型城镇化发展的突破口和有效途径。生态环境下的小城镇建设是“十二五“规划的组成内容,小城镇的生态建设不仅对国民经济效益的整体提高起到至关重要的作用,也促进了农民收入的提高。但是由于很多小城镇在建设过程中只注重经济效益,从而忽略了对环境的保护,对生态环境造成严重的破坏,城镇建设也缺乏整体规划。因此,我们不仅应从道路、环境等各方面加强小城镇的整体建设,还应树立全民环保的意识,努力建设生态化、现代化的新型小城镇。     

关于政府构建与完善中小企业支持体系的思考

中小企业的发展,在推进国有企业改革、解决下岗职工再就业、增加财政收入、搞活城乡经济和加快小城镇建设等方面发挥了不可替代的作用。在我国中小企业的发展中,长期存在着一些制约其快速发展的因素,迫切需要政府构建和完善中小企业支持体系,以推动中小企业的持续、健康发展。     

Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain:

Two diseases, osteoporosis and osteoarthritis, are responsible for a majority of the chronic musculoskeletal pain that older women experience. Osteoporosis is the metabolic bone disease most common in older women and is responsible for fractures, kyphosis, and chronic pain. Osteoarthritis, the most commonly diagnosed musculoskeletal problem in older women, causes degeneration of the weight-bearing joints in the body, resulting in limited function and chronic pain. In this paper, these and other common disorders are briefly described and typical coping strategies used by older women in pain are reviewed. In addition, potential multidisciplinary treatment regimens are discussed.     

A new approach to statistical efficiency of weighted least squares fitting algorithms for reparameterization of nonlinear regression models

We study nonlinear least-squares problem that can be transformed to linear problem by change of variables. We derive a general formula for the statistically optimal weights and prove that the resulting linear regression gives an optimal estimate (which satisfies an analogue of the Rao-Cramer lower bound) in the limit of small noise.     

A Bayesian approach to non-parametric monotone function estimation

Summary.  The paper proposes two Bayesian approaches to non-parametric monotone function estimation. The first approach uses a hierarchical Bayes framework and a characterization of smooth monotone functions given by Ramsay that allows unconstrained estimation. The second approach uses a Bayesian regression spline model of Smith and Kohn with a mixture distribution of constrained normal distributions as the prior for the regression coefficients to ensure the monotonicity of the resulting function estimate. The small sample properties of the two function estimators across a range of functions are provided via simulation and compared with existing methods. Asymptotic results are also given that show that Bayesian methods provide consistent function estimators for a large class of smooth functions. An example is provided involving economic demand functions that illustrates the application of the constrained regression spline estimator in the context of a multiple-regression model where two functions are constrained to be monotone.     

Small sample distribution of the likelihood ratio test in the random effects model

In this paper we examine the small sample distribution of the likelihood ratio test in the random effects model which is often recommended for meta-analyses. We find that this distribution depends strongly on the true value of the heterogeneity parameter (between-study variance) of the model, and that the correct p-value may be quite different from its large sample approximation. We recommend that the dependence of the heterogeneity parameter be examined for the data at hand and suggest a (simulation) method for this. Our setup allows for explanatory variables on the study level (meta-regression) and we discuss other possible applications, too. Two data sets are analyzed and two simulation studies are performed for illustration.     

促进小额贷款公司健康发展的政策体系研究

小额贷款是金融制度的创新,是对现代金融体系的提升和扬弃。小额贷款公司等微型金融是国家金融系统的必要组成部分,是国家普惠金融体系的一个特殊机构。小额贷款公司的出现延伸了金融服务的广度和深度,在一定程度上缓冲了银行的信贷风险,也使得金融体系更具包容性,从而完善了金融支持经济的功能。小额信贷不仅能促进一国的经济增长,也会丰富金融体系和金融监管的内涵。应设计出更加符合发展需求的政策体系,使小贷公司有更好的发展愿景。