Size and duration of empires growth-decline curves, 3000 to 600 b.c.

Area changes of about 30 best known empires and states are compiled and tabulated. Superimposed and juxtaposed graphs (size versus time) help to visualize the relative size and location in time of these empires. Size-time integral, maximum stable size, adulthood date, and duration are defined operationally and are listed for 20 empires. A criterion is given for distinctness of successive empires. The size-time integral is a direct measure of an empire's impact on history insofar as that impact depends on sheer size and duration. The integral is largest for the Chinese Hsia-Shang, Egyptian New, Old, and Middle, Assyrian New, and Hittite empires. A world-wide territorial concentration index is tabulated. It increases during the period considered from 0.08 to 1.4% of the world dry land area.     

Estimating chance reproducibility in Guttman Scaling

A definition of reproducibility in Guttman Scaling and two chance measures of reproducibility are suggested. The first measure assumes that the items are independent. The second method assumes nonindependent items and fits respondent and item margins by an iterative method used in fitting log-linear models. Chance reproducibility is conceptualized in terms of assumptions about respondent variability.     

草地早熟禾主要经济性状间的灰色关联分析

应用灰色关联分析方法研究了坪用草地早熟禾地上生物量、生殖枝数、生殖枝高、穗长、穗粒数、结实率等6个主要经济性状与种子产量以及各性状之间的关联程度。结果表明,各性状与种子产量之间的关联度大小依次为单位面积生殖枝数＞单位面积地上生物量＞生殖技高＞穗长＞结实率＞穗粒数。地上生物量对生殖校高、生殖枝数和穗长的影响较大。     

Assessing the devolution revolution: How accurate are state-level estimates from the current population survey

The devolution of many social policy responsibilities from the Federal government to states has prompted increased interest in state-level measures of need. One data source that could be used to provide more state-level information on a variety of topics is the Current Population Survey (CPS). During the past ten years the CPS has been used to produce state-level estimates on a variety of measures. However, there has been little systematic evaluation of these data. This paper provides measures of accuracy for several state-level estimates derived from the CPS. These include standard errors for single-year estimates, three-year averages, and five-year averages of the March CPS measures; standard errors for three-year averages of 12-month CPS files; and comparison of CPS-based estimates to data from the Decennial Census. The paper also examines the relative accuracy of CPS estimates based on states' size. The information in this study will help analysts better understand the tradeoffs between timeliness and accuracy to be considered when using state-level estimates derived from the CPS.     

Cohort Succession in the US Housing Market: New Houses, the Baby Boom, and Income Stratification

Federal housing policy in the US across the postwar period supported the construction of new houses more than public provision or renovation of older structures as a means of ensuring a sufficient supply of quality dwellings. Understanding trends in new housing in particular is thus crucial to understanding the housing regime. Following Myers (Housing demography: Linking demographic structure and housing markets. University of Wisconsin Press, 1990; Housing Studies, 14, 473–490,1999), this paper conceptualizes historical change in the housing stock within a demographic framework as the movement of cohorts of households through cohorts of housing stock. Recent evidence suggests that a new cohort of houses arose in the 1980s and 1990s (larger with more amenities than past vintages), and that buyers of those new houses were increasingly affluent. In this paper, I link the succession to a new cohort of houses to household cohort succession and examine the increasing affluence of new house buyers by age and cohort, focusing especially on the entry of the Baby Boom generation exactly when the new cohort of houses arrived. I use US Census microdata for 1960–2000 to develop a cohort longitudinal dataset, and analyze historical change in stratification in new house ownership. I find significant shifts between cohorts in income inequality among new house buyers, with implications for the capacity of the housing regime to meet the future needs of an increasingly diverse population.

Survival Convergence and the Preceding Mortality Crossover for Two Population Subgroups

In this paper, we present and develop the argument that if the survival functions for two population subgroups converge in later life, a mortality crossover must precede the occurrence of this convergence. Specifically, two survival curves, S ₁(x) and S ₂(x), associated with two distinct population subgroups, G₁ and G₂, tend to converge before all members die out, as often observed and anticipated. This convergence leads to an increased mortality acceleration for the “advantaged” group, and eventually fosters the occurrence of a mortality crossover. We present a mathematical proof for this relationship and offer several explanations for the mechanisms involved in the process of survival convergence and the preceding mortality crossover. This new presentation demonstrates that mortality crossover is a highly observable demographic event given the trend of survival convergence in later life.     

Machine learning and design of experiments with an application to product innovation in the chemical industry

Industrial statistics plays a major role in the areas of both quality management and innovation. However, existing methodologies must be integrated with the latest tools from the field of Artificial Intelligence. To this end, a background on the joint application of Design of Experiments (DOE) and Machine Learning (ML) methodologies in industrial settings is presented here, along with a case study from the chemical industry. A DOE study is used to collect data, and two ML models are applied to predict responses which performance show an advantage over the traditional modeling approach. Emphasis is placed on causal investigation and quantification of prediction uncertainty, as these are crucial for an assessment of the goodness and robustness of the models developed. Within the scope of the case study, the models learned can be implemented in a semi-automatic system that can assist practitioners who are inexperienced in data analysis in the process of new product development.     

我国老年人临终前需要完全照料的时间分析

根据中国老年人健康长寿影响因素2005年第4周期调查数据,用多水平随机效应序列模型,对中国65岁及以上老年人临终前需要他人完全照料的天数进行较为系统的分析。结果显示照料时间与杜区社会经济发展因素无很大关联性,但与性别、受教育程度、有病及时治疗、子女可近度、经常参与宗教佛事活动和基期健康等个体因素存在一定依存关系。     

中国流动儿童政策分析

本文从儿童权利平等的角度出发,结合2003年“中国九城市流动儿童生活状况调查”数据,从国家和地方两个层面,主观和客观两个方面深入分析流动儿童政策的现状,剖析国家和地方政府之间的义务和责任关系,分析影响流动儿童政策制定、执行等环节的因素,针对流动儿童主要问题,提出政策建议。     

网络动态海报《随传随到》的多模态话语分析

作为数字传播时代的新兴产物,动态海报具有画面表现力强、传递信息量大、受众参与度高等特征,已广泛应用于网络广告领域。研究基于多模态话语分析综合理论框架,辅之以视觉语法理论,解析网络动态海报《随传随到》运用多模态符号资源实现的积极广告传播效果。研究发现：文化层面,意识形态是理解动态海报和实现广告传播效果的必要前提;语境层面,语境因素是动态海报产生特征和积极广告传播效果的动因;内容层面,广告传播效果取决于多模态资源在意义构建中的运用;表达层面,GIF格式文件为动态海报达到积极广告传播效果提供了技术支持。研究结合广告学知识探索了多模态话语分析在网络动态海报中的应用,旨在为动态海报的广告传播效果提供语言学解释。