Modeling the demand reduction input-output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures.

Interdependency analysis in the context of this article is a process of assessing and managing risks inherent in a system of interconnected entities (e.g., infrastructures or industry sectors). Invoking the principles of input-output (I-O) and decomposition analysis, the article offers a framework for describing how terrorism-induced perturbations can propagate due to interconnectedness. Data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is utilized to present applications to serve as test beds for the proposed framework. Specifically, a case study estimating the economic impact of airline demand perturbations to national-level U.S. sectors is made possible using I-O matrices. A ranking of the affected sectors according to their vulnerability to perturbations originating from a primary sector (e.g., air transportation) can serve as important input to risk management. For example, limited resources can be prioritized for the "top-n" sectors that are perceived to suffer the greatest economic losses due to terrorism. In addition, regional decomposition via location quotients enables the analysis of local-level terrorism events. The Regional I-O Multiplier System II (RIMS II) Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is the agency responsible for releasing the regional multipliers for various geographical resolutions (economic areas, states, and counties). A regional-level case study demonstrates a process of estimating the economic impact of transportation-related scenarios on industry sectors within Economic Area 010 (the New York metropolitan region and vicinities).     

关于传统文化背景下的“自我观”的确立

"自我"的问题,在中国文化体系中一直是一个敏感的问题.透过中国传统文化中关于自我观的现象,分析了关于"自我"的理念.提出了"自我观"在中国传统文化中的"道德化"倾向,以及"道德化自我"演变成"泛道德化自我"的极端状态的基本历程.同时,从文化学的角度论述了确立正确的"自我观"所要处理好的三个关系,即德性与才性的关系、个体与社会的关系、科学与人文的关系.     

中国农村发展水平因子分析

"三农"问题已成为制约中国经济社会发展的瓶颈性因素,而要有效地解决"三农"问题,首先要对中国不同地区农村发展水平做出相对客观的评价。选取一系列的评价指标,运用多元统计分析中的因子分析方法,30个省区的农村发展水平作整体综合分析,得出各地区农村发展水平的概况,并在此基础上指出了各地区解决农村发展问题的重点。     

论禁止诱导性询问规则--以刑事庭审方式改革为背景

在调整我国刑事庭审的"诱导性规则"里,诱导性询问仅被赋予消极的内涵而遭禁绝,从而直接影响了刑事庭审中司法公正、效率等多元价值的实现.在较为均衡的价值观的指导下,借鉴对抗制国家的立法经验,建立完善的符合我国实际的诱导性规则,是刑事庭审方式改革的当务之急.     

Bayesian Estimation of Survival Functions under Stochastic Precedence

When estimating the distributions of two random variables, X and Y, investigators often have prior information that Y tends to be bigger than X. To formalize this prior belief, one could potentially assume stochastic ordering between X and Y, which implies Pr(X < or = z) > or = Pr(Y < or = z) for all z in the domain of X and Y. Stochastic ordering is quite restrictive, though, and this article focuses instead on Bayesian estimation of the distribution functions of X and Y under the weaker stochastic precedence constraint, Pr(X < or = Y) > or = 0.5. We consider the case where both X and Y are categorical variables with common support and develop a Gibbs sampling algorithm for posterior computation. The method is then generalized to the case where X and Y are survival times. The proposed approach is illustrated using data on survival after tumor removal for patients with malignant melanoma.     

Marginal Means/Rates Models for Multiple Type Recurrent Event Data

Recurrent events are frequently observed in biomedical studies, and often more than one type of event is of interest. Follow-up time may be censored due to loss to follow-up or administrative censoring. We propose a class of semi-parametric marginal means/rates models, with a general relative risk form, for assessing the effect of covariates on the censored event processes of interest. We formulate estimating equations for the model parameters, and examine asymptotic properties of the parameter estimators. Finite sample properties of the regression coefficients are examined through simulations. The proposed methods are applied to a retrospective cohort study of risk factors for preschool asthma.     

Simulation for the complex Bingham distribution

The complex Bingham distribution is relevant for the shape analysis of landmark data in two dimensions. In this paper it is shown that the problem of simulating from this distribution reduces to simulation from a truncated multivariate exponential distribution. Several simulation methods are described and their efficiencies are compared.     

Regression Analysis of Restricted Mean Survival Time Based on Pseudo-Observations

Regression models for survival data are often specified from the hazard function while classical regression analysis of quantitative outcomes focuses on the mean value (possibly after suitable transformations). Methods for regression analysis of mean survival time and the related quantity, the restricted mean survival time, are reviewed and compared to a method based on pseudo-observations. Both Monte Carlo simulations and two real data sets are studied. It is concluded that while existing methods may be superior for analysis of the mean, pseudo-observations seem well suited when the restricted mean is studied.     

对高师大学生闲暇体育现状的调查分析

闲暇体育也称“余暇体育”,是学校体育的重要组成部分,是实现学校体育目的及任务的主要途径之一。本文概述了高师大学生闲暇体育的内涵,调查了高师大学生闲暇体育的现状,分析了高师大学生闲暇体育的问题,并提出了今后发展高师大学生闲暇优育的意见,开展针对性强、实用性广的闲暇体育,对培养大学生良好的体育意识,养成经常参加体育锻炼的习惯,有着十分重要的意义。     

陈骙《文则》的修辞研究方法举隅

陈马癸《文则》考察修辞现象的方法至今仍有意义。着眼于汉语修辞学史 ,从“假之以渔”,而不是“假之以鱼”的角度 ,可发现《文则》中蕴含着素朴的辩证综合法、直观分析法、有限演绎法 ,实在难能可贵 ,值得今人批判地继承