再论“四二一”结构:定义与研究方法

"四二一"结构是中国低生育率背景下家庭结构与代际关系的一种特殊表达,既反映了20世纪70年代以来计划生育政策广泛推行对中国家庭的深刻影响,又揭示了中国现阶段婚姻家庭乃至未来人口发展的特点与趋势。目前这一领域的研究虽然已经取得一系列的进展,但在概念界定与使用的方法上仍缺乏共识,导致研究结论的分歧和研究拓展的迟滞。在中国社会剧烈变动的形势下,"四二一"结构是研究中国的计划生育政策、独生子女问题,以及家庭结构与代际关系变动的一个良好的载体和切入点。     

‘Mafia Baroque’: post‐socialist architecture and urban planning in Bulgaria

This paper traces the reception of the architectural style known as ‘Mafia Baroque’ within the professions of architecture and urban planning in Bulgaria. The debate within these professions was strongly linked to the general decline of power among former intellectual elites and the specific decline of architects and planners, who were sidelined as arbiters of ‘good taste’ and disempowered as regulators of urban growth. The reaction to this style also highlights the rise in public concern over corruption and organized crime and dissatisfaction with post‐socialist urbanization. This paper chronicles the extent of changes in construction and regulation in Bulgaria during the 1990s and argues that planners and architects were challenged not only by their professional marginalization but also by a deeper embarrassment over cultural change. It then relates this debate to broader post‐socialist anxieties over insufficient regulation of urbanization and fear of failing to meet Western European goals for economic and political change.     

Interacting mechanisms of time inconsistency

We interact two prominent behavioral mechanisms of time inconsistency that have been used to study inadequate saving: hyperbolic discounting and short-term planning. Hyperbolic discounting is a conventional way to model impulsive decision making, and short planning horizons have been used to represent myopia. One might expect that interacting both mechanisms within the same model would compound the inadequacy of saving. However, our key finding takes the form of a paradox: hyperbolic discounting does not affect consumption and saving allocations if the planning horizon is short and fixed, although it will affect allocations if the planning horizon is equal to the remaining life span. We demonstrate analytically that this finding is robust to the shape of the disposable income path, to the coarseness of the time grid, and to alternative forms of the period utility function.     

中小企业战略信息系统建设探究

阐述了战略信息系统的内涵以及中小企业战略信息系统的建设意义,分析了中小企业战略信息系统建设存在的问题,并针对性地提出了对策。     

Assessing state substance abuse prevention infrastructure through the lens of CSAP's Strategic Prevention Framework

Although the organizational structures and operating procedures of state substance abuse prevention systems vary substantially across states, there is scant empirical research regarding approaches for rigorous assessment of system attributes and which attributes are most conducive to overall effectiveness. As one component of the national cross-site evaluation of the SPF State Incentive Grant Program (SPF SIG), an instrument was developed to assess state substance abuse prevention system infrastructure in order to measure infrastructure change and examine the role of state infrastructure in achieving prevention-related outcomes. In this paper we describe the development of this instrument and summarize findings from its baseline administration. As expected, states and territories were found to vary substantially with respect seven key characteristics, or domains, of state prevention infrastructure. Across the six domains that were assessed using numeric ratings, states scored highest on data systems and lowest on strategic planning. Positive intercorrelations were observed among these domains, indicating that states with high capacity on one domain generally have relatively high capacity on other domains as well. The findings also suggest that state prevention infrastructure development is linked to both funding from state government and the presence of a state interagency coordinating body with decision-making authority. The methodology and baseline findings presented will be used to inform the ongoing national cross-site evaluation of the SPF SIG and may provide useful information to guide further research on state substance abuse prevention infrastructure.     

A critical review on current practices of the monitoring and evaluation in the preparation of strategic urban plans within the Egyptian context

Worldwide, strategic urban planning is found in very different contexts and planning schemes, where it is always a tool strongly linked to enhancing urban management. Under the umbrella of strategic urban planning different approaches can be perceived, in which within these broad shared characteristics there are significant variations. A key component in the strategic urban planning process is the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) element and these differences can be seen in the way that M&E is approached. Egypt is currently on the track to reform its planning system shifting from the conventional master plans towards strategic urban plans (SUPs). This paper reflects on the current practices of M&E the preparation of SUPs within the Egyptian context. It sheds light on the strengths and weaknesses of the employed techniques and concludes with some recommendations to improve the process of M&E, which builds upon the strengths in the employed techniques.     

Potential of decentralized wastewater management for urban development: Case of Bangkok

Decentralized wastewater management (DWWM) has recently gained much attention in wastewater management (WWM) due to its build-as-you-go principal. Rapid urban development and the widespread impact of wastewater require sustainable ways to test the DWWM approach. This paper aims to examine and discuss the potential of Bangkok’s current WWM approaches for urban development, focusing on decentralized management approaches. General WWM approaches were examined using case study research methods. Three WWM cases were selected for detailed investigation. Residential wastewater user surveys and expert interviews were used to support system performance findings of service providers and recipients, as well as to draw lessons learned. Results show that DWWM is economically and technically efficient, demonstrating potential for sustainable urban development (SUD) in the study area. The competitive cost found is a result of less sewer line, simple technology, and limited additional costs, while the high efficiency is a result of good operation and maintenance. Also the reclaimed water has been used for landscape irrigation of the urban greenery. Sustainability of the system lies in social value of public amenity it provides, and the urban planning implication that it could be an option for smart growth. The results also show that even in an inner urban area DWWM does not conflict with any SUD considerations. Thus, the study recommends using DWWM for new development within both public and private properties based on Bangkok’s case as part of long-term urban development.     

政府旅游开发方式评析——以土耳其为例

提起旅游,人们脑海里首先浮现的必然是"阳光与海滩"。土耳其是地中海地区的一个主要国家,在历史、文化、自然风光、美食、民俗等方面都具有巨大潜力,并且土耳其人民也非常热情友善。土耳其拥有21世纪的游客所寻求的异国风情。为使土耳其的这种潜力在继续服务于旅游业的同时保持其延续性,就需要认真的自省与科学的研究和规划。旅游业对于一国的社会福利和经济发展有着举足轻重的影响,但也存在毁灭当地资源的可能。理性运用旅游资产、增加游客数量和提高旅游收入,这些都可以通过有效的旅游规划来实现。在此问题上,中央政府、地方政府和非政府组织在相互协作的框架下各司其职显得至关重要。本文通过揭示当前土耳其旅游业的现状,对中央和地方政府扮演的角色做出评析,希望从国家管理的风格和方式角度出发,使土耳其的旅游规划和政策取得实际效果。     

How organizational characteristics affect the adaptive tactics used by human service nonprofit managers confronting financial uncertainty

The way that nonprofits respond to funding uncertainty is crucial to their ability to meet goals and position themselves for future success. This article investigates how structural, managerial, and financial characteristics affect the adaptive tactics used by human service nonprofits during times of financial stress. These tactics include adding new programs, reducing programs or staff, expanding or starting joint programs, pursuing earned income, and expanding advocacy involvement. Using longitudinal data on human service nonprofits collected on either side of the 2002–2003 economic downtown, we find that larger size provides organizations with a unique ability to choose among different adaptive tactics, as larger size was significantly predictive of adding new programs, reducing programs, expanding advocacy, and pursuing earned income. Strategic planning was positively associated with innovative tactics such as starting joint programs or pursuing earned income. Financial stress or declines in an organization's major funding source led to cutbacks, as expected, but managers who foresaw these challenges were able to respond proactively by adding programs or starting joint programs. However, managers with more training did not respond much differently than did other managers, and organizational age and use of performance management tools had no effect in guiding organizational responses to financial uncertainty.     

Strategic Shared Leadership and Organizational Dynamic Capabilities

We propose that the purposeful sharing of strategic decisions and the process of making and taking those between the dominant coalition of an organization (Strategic Shared Leadership or SSL thereafter), initiated and supported by a focal strategic leader or small team, engenders Organizational Dynamic Capabilities (ODCs) though the transfer of individually-residing DCs within the SSL team, the transformation -co-creation of novel ones and their embeddedness-institutionalization within the organization. It also enhances organizational cognition which mediates the relationship by enriching co-created ODCs and their capacity to deliver reliably change through sensing, seizing and reconfiguring. Accordingly, SSL serves as a co-creator and key predictor of the emergence of ODCs. This helps address the challenges of DCs to marry stability with change, be predictable and to be capable of predicting.