Sign Restrictions,Structural Vector Autoregressions,and Useful Prior Information

This paper makes the following original contributions to the literature. (i) We develop a simpler analytical characterization and numerical algorithm for Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions (VARs) that can be used for models that are overidentified, just‐identified, or underidentified. (ii) We analyze the asymptotic properties of Bayesian inference and show that in the underidentified case, the asymptotic posterior distribution of contemporaneous coefficients in an n‐variable VAR is confined to the set of values that orthogonalize the population variance–covariance matrix of ordinary least squares residuals, with the height of the posterior proportional to the height of the prior at any point within that set. For example, in a bivariate VAR for supply and demand identified solely by sign restrictions, if the population correlation between the VAR residuals is positive, then even if one has available an infinite sample of data, any inference about the demand elasticity is coming exclusively from the prior distribution. (iii) We provide analytical characterizations of the informative prior distributions for impulse‐response functions that are implicit in the traditional sign‐restriction approach to VARs, and we note, as a special case of result (ii), that the influence of these priors does not vanish asymptotically. (iv) We illustrate how Bayesian inference with informative priors can be both a strict generalization and an unambiguous improvement over frequentist inference in just‐identified models. (v) We propose that researchers need to explicitly acknowledge and defend the role of prior beliefs in influencing structural conclusions and we illustrate how this could be done using a simple model of the U.S. labor market.     

内控有效性、高管代理成本与多重并购绩效

立足于企业转型升级和跨越式发展的战略诉求,并购成为企业实现迅速扩张和优化资源配置的重要工具.本文选取2009-2014年发生并购重组事件的A股上市公司作为研究对象,以并购交易绩效、并购整合绩效和并购可持续增长绩效多重指标为研究侧重点,结合我国特有的产权制度背景,考察内部控制有效性、高管代理成本对多重并购绩效的影响.研究发现,高质量的内部控制能够有效改善多重并购绩效,高管代理成本会抑制并购后主并公司的多重并购绩效;同时,内部控制能减弱代理成本对并购绩效的损害程度,但这一治理作用在国有企业与非国有企业中表现各异.研究结论为我国进一步加强包括内部控制和公司治理机制在内的制度建设提供决策依据.     

股权结构、产权性质与高管薪酬粘性——基于我国A股上市公司的实证研究

近年来,我国上市公司高管薪酬尤其是国有企业高管薪酬成为政府监管的重点和社会舆论关注的焦点问题.文章以2010-2014年我国沪深两市A股上市公司为研究对象,实证检验了上市公司高管薪酬粘性的存在性;同时,重点考察了股权结构、产权性质对上市公司高管薪酬粘性的影响程度.实证结果显示:我国上市公司高管薪酬具有显著的粘性特征;在股权结构的影响方面,第一大股东持股比例越高,股权制衡度越低,高管薪酬粘性相应越高,当控股股东与中小股东之间产生利益冲突时,上市公司高管作为控股股东利益的代表,通常忽视上市公司高管薪酬与企业业绩的不对称性,因此薪酬粘性成为控股股东对高管的奖励;在产权性质的影响方面,国有企业高管薪酬粘性显著大于非国有企业.研究结论对于提高我国上市公司的治理效率、降低代理成本、优化激励机制设计具有一定的启示.     

审计师声誉作用机制研究--从审计需求的视角出发

审计师声誉是社会公众和利益相关者对于审计师的整体认知与评价,是审计服务质量的重要度量指标。从审计需求的两个基本理论--审计需求的代理理论和信息理论出发,分析审计师声誉的影响机理和作用路径。发现,审计需求会导致市场对审计师声誉的关注,高声誉的审计师可以限制机会主义行为,降低财务报告舞弊风险。进一步的分析表明：事务所的做大做强策略可以提升审计师声誉,而审计师声誉的提升不仅对完善审计市场的良好运行有决定性作用,还对整个资本市场的发展有显著的影响。     

An Improved Distribution-free EWMA Mean Chart

Control charts are effective tools for signal detection in both manufacturing processes and service processes. Much service data come from a process with variables having nonnormal or unknown distributions. The commonly used Shewhart variable control charts, which depend heavily on the normality assumption, should not be properly used here. In this article, we propose an improved asymmetric EWMA mean chart based on a simple statistic to monitor process mean shift. We explored the sampling properties of the new monitoring statistic and calculated the average run lengths of the proposed asymmetric EWMA mean chart. We recommend the proposed improved asymmetric EWMA mean chart because the average run lengths of the modified charts are more accurate and reasonable than those of the five existed mean charts. A numerical example of service times with a right skewed distribution from a service system of a bank branch is used to illustrate the application of the improved asymmetric EWMA mean chart and to compare it with the five existing mean charts. The proposed chart showed better detection performance than those of the five existing mean charts in monitoring and detecting shifts in the process mean.     

Multivariate process dispersion monitoring without subgrouping

The memory-type adaptive and non-adaptive control charts are among the best control charts for detecting small-to-moderate changes in the process parameter(s). In this paper, we propose the Crosier CUSUM (CCUSUM), EWMA, adaptive CCUSUM (ACCUSUM) and adaptive EWMA (AEWMA) charts for efficiently monitoring the changes in the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal process without subgrouping. Using extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the length characteristics of these control charts are computed. It turns out that the ACCUSUM and AEWMA charts perform uniformly and substantially better than the CCUSUM and EWMA charts when detecting a range of shift sizes in the covariance matrix. Moreover, the AEWMA chart outperforms the ACCUSUM chart. A real dataset is used to explain the implementation of the proposed control charts.     

Women’s reports of satisfaction and respect with continuity of care experiences by students: Findings from a routine,online survey

BackgroundPre-registration midwifery students in Australia undertake a minimum of ten continuity of care experiences with childbearing women. However, women are rarely asked to formally evaluate this care by students.AimTo evaluate data from a routine, web-based survey of women about having a midwifery student provide a continuity of care experience.MethodsAll women (n = 886) recruited by a midwifery student for a continuity of care experience during a 12 month period received an email inviting them to complete an online survey. The survey included personal details, experiences of care, and two scales on Respect and Satisfaction.ResultsA response rate of 57% (n = 501) was achieved. On average students attended six antenatal visits (mean = 5.83) and had six postnatal contacts with women. Most students attended labour and birth (92.6% n = 464). Most women rated overall satisfaction with care by their student as ‘better than they had hoped’. Positive correlations were found between number of antenatal visits and postnatal contact with students on both levels of satisfaction and respect felt by women. Women felt more satisfied when their midwifery student attended labour and birth.ConclusionsThe online survey was feasible and provided valid and reliable feedback from women about their student during a continuity of care experience. Women valued having an ongoing relationship with a student during pregnancy, labour and birth, and postpartum. Pre-registration midwifery education programs should continue to privilege relationship-based care and national standards should support the effective integration of continuity of care experiences.     

债权治理初探

负债不仅是企业融通资金的一种方式,还具有公司治理功能。不同种类、期限、优先权的负债,其公司治理效率是不同的。债权治理是指企业债权人作为公司治理主体之一对企业实施的治理。债权治理的方式主要有合同治理、流动性治理和控制权治理等。为了改善和提高我国公司治理效率,实现债权治理,应当建立有效的破产机制、推进国有商业银行的公司化改革、大力发展公司债券市场以及优化企业负债结构,创新负债融资工具等。     

Agency of internal transnationalism in social memory

The article examines the limitations of methodological nationalism in the studies of social memory through a case study of memory of Stalinist repression in Belarus. It analyses how various social agencies – national and local activists, religious organisations, and international foundations – use the memory of repression for constructing post‐Soviet Belarusian identity by embedding their national representations in larger transnational frameworks. Drawing on the concept of ‘internal globalisation’, this article develops the idea of ‘internal transnationalism’ that suggests the importance of wider transnational configurations for the definition of nation. Internalized transnationalism does not make a national memory concept less nation‐centred, but it affects the choice of its cultural, political and civilizational framing. In contrast to methodological cosmopolitanism that implies rediscovering of the national as an internalized global, methodological transnationalism emphasizes the multiplicity of co‐existing transnational networks that can be invoked by social actors in their national mnemonic agenda. Using the case of the Kurapaty memorial site the article analyses how multiple framings of memory representations – the Belarusian national memory, liberal anti‐communist memory, contesting memories, such as Polish, Baltic and Jewish – compete and juxtapose in the space of social memory of political repression.