Coping with Group Behaviors in Uncertain Quality Function Deployment

Quality function deployment (QFD) is a planning and problem‐solving tool gaining wide acceptance for translating customer needs (CNs) into technical attributes (TAs) of a product. It is a crucial step to derive the prioritization of TAs from CNs in QFD. However, it is not so straightforward to prioritize TAs due to two types of uncertainties: human subjective perception and user variability. The main focus of this article is to propose a group decision‐making approach to uncertain QFD with an application to a flexible manufacturing system design. The proposed approach performs computations solely based on the order‐based semantics of linguistic labels to eliminate the burden of quantifying qualitative concepts in QFD. Moreover, it incorporates the importance weights of users and the concept of fuzzy majority into aggregations of individual fuzzy preference relations of different TAs in order to model the group behaviors in QFD. Finally, based on a quantifier‐guided net flow score procedure, the proposed approach derives a priority ranking with a classification of TAs into important and unimportant ones so as to provide a better decision‐support to the decision‐maker. Due to the easiness in articulating preferential information, our approach can reduce the cognitive burden of QFD planning team and give a practical convenience in the process of QFD planning.     

Risk,uncertainty and hidden information

People are less willing to accept bets about an event when they do not know the true probability of that event. Such uncertainty aversion has been used to explain certain economic phenomena. This paper considers how far standard private information explanations (with strategic decisions to accept bets) can go in explaining phenomena attributed to uncertainty aversion. This paper shows that if two individuals have different prior beliefs about some event, and two sided private information, then each individuals willingness to bet will exhibit a bid ask spread property. Each individual is prepared to bet for the event, at sufficiently favorable odds, and against, at sufficiently favorable odds, but there is an intermediate range of odds where each individual is not prepared to bet either way. This is only true if signals are distributed continuously and sufficiently smoothly. It is not true, for example, in a finite signal model.     

Rethinking Risk Attitude: Aspiration as Pure Risk

There exists no completely satisfactory theory of risk attitude in current normative decision theories. Existing notions confound attitudes to pure risk with unrelated psychological factors such as strength of preference for certain outcomes, and probability weighting. In addition traditional measures of risk attitude frequently cannot be applied to non-numerical consequences, and are not psychologically intuitive. I develop Pure Risk theory which resolves these problems – it is consistent with existing normative theories, and both internalises and generalises the intuitive notion of risk being related to the probability of not achieving one’s aspirations. Existing models which ignore pure risk attitudes may be misspecified, and effects hitherto modelled as loss aversion or utility curvature may be due instead to Pure Risk attitudes.     

解读请求权的本质

从法哲学的角度而言,请求权应在两个层面上存在,一个是存在于抽象权利层面的请求权,另一个是表现为各种具体形态的请求权。对其本质的探讨,须从抽象权利的形态上进行界定,如果从具体的请求权考虑,则不能探究出请求权的本质,只能得出各种具体请求权的效力或作用。本文认为,请求权的本质是自由意志,在现代法的观念中,又必须从每个人自由均会得到保证的角度来进一步理解请求权的本质。     

球赛对大学生球迷认知发展的积极影响之一——主观幸福感的影响分析

通过各类球赛对大学生球迷主观幸福感的积极影响研究与分析,球赛对不同大学生球迷的影响差异具高度显著性,与其学习压力较重、社会责任心强、理想与现实的差距等心理困惑等有密切的关系。球赛能够满足大学生球迷的精神需要,有助于大学生球迷个性的发展,使之更好地体验和享受生活。     

Predicting System Usage from Intention and Past Use: Scale Issues in the Predictors

The objective of this study is to provide insights into how the predictive power for computer‐recorded system usage can be improved. Based on 386 responses from actual users of an information system, we examine the predictive power for system usage according to the scales of the predictors used, namely, intention and past use. First, we show that the predictive power of intention can be significantly improved with the choice of an appropriate measure. However, even the desirable intention measure failed to explain two‐thirds of the variance in system usage. Second, the results show that past use as measured by computer‐recorded log data can significantly enhance our ability to predict system usage. Finally, when both intention and past use are controlled for, the explained variance in system usage is shown to vary widely from 20% to 73%, depending on the predictors' scales. Overall, our findings suggest that an accurate prediction of system usage requires a more rigorous approach than that often applied in information systems research.     

社区公共服务对老年人幸福感的影响

本文基于中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)2018年数据,运用Ordered probit模型和工具变量条件混合过程估计法(CMP方法)考察社区公共服务对老年人幸福感的影响。研究表明,社区公共服务完善程度对老年人幸福感具有显著的促进作用,且这一影响具有明显的城乡、独居养老成因和年龄异质性。社区公共服务匹配度对社区公共服务的老年幸福感效应具有明显调节作用:社区公共服务匹配度越高,社区公共服务对老年人幸福感的促进作用越强。因此,构建以社区为依托的多层次养老体系不仅要着力完善社区公共服务,更要重视社区公共服务供给与老年居民真实需求间的精准匹配,以在提升资源利用效率的同时更好地发挥社区公共服务对老年居民福祉的促进作用。     

A Subjective Spin on Roulette Wheels

We provide a simple behavioral definition of ‘subjective mixture’ of acts for a large class of (not necessarily expected‐utility) preferences. Subjective mixtures enjoy the same algebraic properties as the ‘objective mixtures’ used to great advantage in the decision setting introduced by Anscombe and Aumann (1963). This makes it possible to formulate mixture‐space axioms in a fully subjective setting. For illustration, we present simple subjective axiomatizations of some models of choice under uncertainty, including Bewley's model of choice with incomplete preferences (2002).