各省区季度GDP数据质量评估

  国内外学者对我国GDP数据质量的质疑重点已从年度数据转到季度数据,从全国数据转向地方数据。本文通过设计一套较为系统且可操作性强的季度GDP评估指标体系,运用空间面板数据模型对各省区的季度GDP数据质量进行了实证检验。结果表明,整体来看,中国各省区季度GDP同各经济指标的匹配性较好,数据质量较高,并不存在明显的失真现象;从时间上来看,每年一、二季度的GDP存在一定程度的高估,而每年三、四季度的GDP则存在一定程度的低估,但是这种偏差在统计上不显著;分地区来看,尽管一半省区的季度GDP存在一定程度的高估,另一半省区存在一定程度的低估,但大部分省区高估或低估的程度在统计上不显著。文章进一步分析了其中的原因。     

Estimation of system reliability for exponential distributions based on L ranked set sampling

Abstract

In the case where strength and stress both follow exponential distributions, this paper considers the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the system reliability based on L ranked set sampling (LRSS). The proposed MLE is shown to have existence, uniqueness and asymptotic normality, and its asymptotic variance is obtained by the Fisher information matrix of LRSS. The values of asymptotic relative efficiencies show that the proposed MLE is always more efficient than the MLE using simple random sampling (SRS). However, the MLE using LRSS cannot be written in closed form. Therefore, the modified MLE is proposed using the technique replaced some terms in the maximum likelihood equations by their expectations. The newly modified MLE using LRSS is shown to be superior to the MLE using SRS. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a real data set on metastatic renal carcinoma study.     

A sampling plan for one-shot systems considering destructive inspection

Abstract

The paper is concerned with an acceptance sampling problem under destructive inspections for one-shot systems. The systems may fail at random times while they are operating (as the systems are considered to be operating when storage begins), and these failures can only be identified by inspection. Thus, n samples are randomly selected from N one-shot systems for periodic destructive inspection. After storage time T, the N systems are replaced if the number of working systems is less than a pre-specified threshold k. The primary purpose of this study is to determine the optimal number of samples n*, extracted from the N for destructive detection and the optimal acceptance number k*, in the sample under the constraint of the system interval availability, to minimize the expected cost rate. Numerical experiments are studied to investigate the effect of the parameters in sampling inspection on the optimal solutions.     

面向新时代的国民经济核算研究议题及相关问题

本文结合国际国内研究动态分层次归纳、阐释当前国民经济核算的研究议题。具体包括:以国民账户体系2008版(SNA-2008)为起点的前沿研究,SNA中心框架的灵活运用研究,接驳中国国民经济核算体系(CSNA)及其实务的优化和创新研究,国民经济核算数据的综合应用研究。最后针对中国当前国民经济核算研究方法中存在的一些倾向性问题做讨论,比如是否过分关注与GDP的关联, 如何充分发挥卫星账户的作用等。     

数字贸易测度的概念架构、指标体系和测度方法初探

数字贸易是构建“以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”的新发展格局的新模式和新业态,也是各国参与国际竞争与合作的重要领域。然而,国际社会对数字贸易概念的认识还比较模糊,直接影响着数字贸易市场拓展和规则制定,数字贸易测度也成为国际贸易统计领域具有挑战性课题。本文在回顾和梳理国际社会关于数字贸易概念和测度方法既有论述的基础上,提出了数字贸易的“二元三环”概念架构,构建了测度数字贸易规模的指标体系,开发了以“实际数字交付比率”为关键的数字贸易测度法,并使用中国“两化融合”平台数据库的数据,对中国2018—2019 年数字贸易进出口总额进行了试测度。本文的研究成果对我国数字贸易测度研究以及有关部门建立数字贸易统计监测制度具有借鉴作用。     

The participatory design of a performance oriented monitoring and evaluation system in an international development environment

This article illustrates the application of the impact monitoring and evaluation process for the design and development of a performance monitoring and evaluation framework in the context of human and institutional capacity development. This participative process facilitated stakeholder ownership in several areas including the design, development, and use of a new monitoring and evaluation system, as well their targeted results and accomplishments through the use of timely performance data gathered through ongoing monitoring and evaluation. The process produced a performance indicator map, a comprehensive monitoring and evaluation framework, and data collection templates to promote the development, implementation, and sustainability of the monitoring and evaluation system of a farmer's trade union in an African country.     

北京市行政-立法关系研究——基于北京市人大立法过程的视角

基于北京市人大常委会门户网站,通过收集第十三、十四届北京市人大在立法过程各个阶段的实证数据,分析了北京市人大和政府在立法过程中各自所发挥的作用,从而探究北京市行政-立法关系.研究发现,北京市人大在现实运行中尚未实现其主导功能,具体表现为:"官员"代表和兼职代表比例高、"行政部门化"趋向、程序性手段效用缺失、立法解释权虚置.但是,与此同时实证数据也显示北京市近两届人大正通过调整代表结构、提前介入、强化实质性审议等手段提升立法自主性,推动人大制度与时俱进.     

“和为贵”、“中庸之道”与“武士道”精神——关于日本政治文化的思考

“和为贵”与“中庸之道”,是中国传统文化中的重要思想原则。传入日本后,曾对其社会发展,产生很大积极作用。但同时,当日本对外侵略扩张时,又能与其“军国主义”思想并行不悖。为什么呢？这是与日本本土政治文化,诸如“内外有别”的共同体意识、“武士道”精神,以及“万世一系”的天皇制度等相结合的结果     

中国的知情权保障与信息公开制度的发展进程

中国对公众知情权的保障主要通过建立政府信息公开制度来实现,并已经将这一在信息时代迅速生长的基本人权写入了中共第十七次全国代表大会的报告和中国首部《国家人权行动计划》之中。中国的政府信息公开制度建设具有中央和地方立法平行、建章立制与维权实践共举的特点。实证资料表明2009年《政府信息公开条例》的实施情况好于2008年,但还存在着法律落后于制度发展、规则体系和执行机制还有待继续完善以及救济机制的实效性不强等问题。在十二五规划期间应考虑尽快制定信息公开法等法律来确认知情权,抓紧完善信息公开的实施机制和以行政复议与诉讼制度为核心的救济机制,扩展公众参与的范围,提升其水平。     

论西夏法典中的拘捕制度

西夏法典《天盛改旧新定律令》涉及拘捕的条文有51条之多,对拘捕主体、拘捕运行、拘捕赏罚进行详细规制。拘捕运行遵循效率原则、保护原则。既有对唐宋律拘捕制度的继承,也有因时立法,缘俗而治的特色,是中华法系的组成部分。