Revisiting the gap between stylized and diary estimates of market work time

Previous studies find that workers of longer work weeks report more market hours in stylized measure than in time diary, while those of shorter work weeks report fewer hours. Using data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) 2003-2007, this paper attempts to explain this dilemma. I argue that market work time is composed of activity time, committed time, and constrained time. Thus, part of the difference found between the two estimates is due to the calculation of the diary estimate. I also argue that the wording of the stylized question is consequential. Some stylized questions (e.g., How many hours per week do you usually work?) might capture the mode, instead of the mean, of work time. Thus, when the distribution of work time is skewed, the mismatch between the two estimates is expected. A sequence-based identification for diary estimate and a non-parametric adjustment for stylized estimate are proposed and empirically examined. The result indicates that both methods significantly reduce the observed gap between the two estimates. I discuss the implications for future time use survey design in the concluding section.     

现代金融学理论的缺陷与解决路径

标准金融学与行为金融学的根本分歧是市场是否具有有效性。作为标准金融学基石的有效市场假说的致命缺陷是检验时点有效,即在任何一个时点上证券价格都即时、准确地反映所有信息,这一理想化的约束条件不仅使该理论的应用价值大打折扣,也使其存在着巨大的理论缺陷。行为金融学正是抓住这一点对其提出了质疑和挑战。在推翻标准金融学的理论假设后的行为金融学也没有建立一个比标准金融学更有实际应用性的学说体系,其应用性甚至远远落后于被其否定的以CAPM、APT、OPT等为代表的标准金融学理论。市场有效周期理论认为,市场有效是一个时期而不是一个时点,通过实证研究可以对该理论进行检验。市场有效周期理论的重要价值主要是在解决标准金融学和行为金融学的分歧上实现了重大突破。     

A variable-neighbourhood search algorithm for finding optimal run orders in the presence of serial correlation

The responses obtained from response surface designs that are run sequentially often exhibit serial correlation or time trends. The order in which the runs of the design are performed then has an impact on the precision of the parameter estimators. This article proposes the use of a variable-neighbourhood search algorithm to compute run orders that guarantee a precise estimation of the effects of the experimental factors. The importance of using good run orders is demonstrated by seeking D-optimal run orders for a central composite design in the presence of an AR(1) autocorrelation pattern.     

Copula-based regression models: A survey

In this review paper we collect several results about copula-based models, especially concerning regression models, by focusing on some insurance applications.     

The Generalized Conditional Autoregressive Wishart Model for Multivariate Realized Volatility

It is well known that in finance variances and covariances of asset returns move together over time. Recently, much interest has been aroused by an approach involving the use of the realized covariance (RCOV) matrix constructed from high-frequency returns as the ex-post realization of the covariance matrix of low-frequency returns. For the analysis of dynamics of RCOV matrices, we propose the generalized conditional autoregressive Wishart (GCAW) model. Both the noncentrality matrix and scale matrix of the Wishart distribution are driven by the lagged values of RCOV matrices, and represent two different sources of dynamics, respectively. The GCAW is a generalization of the existing models, and accounts for symmetry and positive definiteness of RCOV matrices without imposing any parametric restriction. Some important properties such as conditional moments, unconditional moments, and stationarity are discussed. Empirical examples including sequences of daily RCOV matrices from the New York Stock Exchange illustrate that our model outperforms the existing models in terms of model fitting and forecasting.     

多车场集送一体化车辆调度问题及其遗传算法研究

针对物流配送中的多车场一体化车辆调度问题提出了智能处理方法,采用了基于自然数的一体化配送对路径表示方式,用里程约束来控制车场的插入,以增加惩罚的方式加入时间窗约束。并且根据具体约束情况设计了改进的遗传算法,采用了动态染色体、改进的交叉和变异法、内部扰动和外部扰动等技术,提高了遗传算法的优化效率和优化效果。介绍了此算法的原理,给出了具有一个代表性算例试验结果和结果分析。试验结果表明了此方法对优化有里程和时间窗约束的多车场一体化车辆调度问题的有效性。     

Interdependency among addictive behaviours and time/risk preferences: Discrete choice model analysis of smoking, drinking, and gambling

This paper simultaneously measures the rate of time preference and the coefficient of risk aversion, as well as investigates the interdependencies of four addictive behaviours: smoking, drinking, pachinko (a popular Japanese form of pinball gambling), and horse betting among a sample of the Japanese population. We reach two main conclusions. First, there are significant interdependencies among the four addictive behaviours, in particular between smoking and drinking and between gambling on pachinko and the horses. Second, we conclude that the higher the time preference rate and the lower the risk aversion coefficient becomes, the more likely individuals smoke, drink frequently, and gamble on pachinko and the horses.     

Trade-off between quoted lead time and price

In a make-to-order environment, lead time and price can play a crucial role in determining the financial success of a firm. Their importance increases when demand is sensitive to the quoted lead time and price. A model is presented which uses the quoted lead time and price as a mechanism to determine the optimal demand level. The relationships between the model parameters and their impacts on the firm's profit is also analysed. In addition, the effect of the number of job requests, and the mean processing time are examined. Based on the results presented in this paper, there is clear indication that the firm's profit is sensitive to the inventory holding rate, and that the inventory holding cost component is redundant in the presence of a tardiness cost component.     

A Comparison of Ambient Casino Sound and Music: Effects on Dissociation and on Perceptions of Elapsed Time While Playing Slot Machines

This research examined the effects of a casino’s auditory character on estimates of elapsed time while gambling. More specifically, this study varied whether the sound heard while gambling was ambient casino sound alone or ambient casino sound accompanied by music. The tempo and volume of both the music and ambient sound were varied to manipulate temporal engagement and introspection. One hundred and sixty (males = 91) individuals played slot machines in groups of 5–8, after which they provided estimates of elapsed time. The findings showed that the typical ambient casino auditive environment, which characterizes the majority of gaming venues, promotes understated estimates of elapsed duration of play. In contrast, when music is introduced into the ambient casino environment, it appears to provide a cue of interval from which players can more accurately reconstruct elapsed duration of play. This is particularly the case when the tempo of the music is slow and the volume is high. Moreover, the confidence with which time estimates are held (as reflected by latency of response) is higher in an auditive environment with music than in an environment that is comprised of ambient casino sounds alone. Implications for casino management are discussed.