中国各地区经济发展水平的实证分析

利用1995-2006年数据,采用时序多指标综合评价法,对中国各地区经济发展水平进行评价研究。结论表明：虽然中国1995-2006年经济增长迅速,但是经济发展水平并未得到显著提高;各地区经济发展不均衡,地域差距较大且有逐年扩大的倾向。     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF TIME IN THE INTERNET ERA: FEMINIST PERSPECTIVES AND CHALLENGES

This paper examines the gender matrix of time, arguing for cross-disciplinary consideration of political economy, globalization and technology to achieve a detailed understanding of gendered hierarchies of time and the ways in which public/private identifications of social space and time have variously constructed and maintained them. It is argued that women are alienated from their own time, which is identified as most legitimately allocated to the service of others both in the home and at work. The inter-relationship of technologies and gendered identities is explored in relation to public/private divisions and the political-economic and scientific-technological knowledge processes that contribute to upholding them. ICTs reflect these historically established gendered patterns, but international projects such as 'Women on the Net' also demonstrate the capacities of these technologies for disrupting the gender matrix of time through their use by women for women.     

A Conditional Variance Model for Daily Deviations of an Exchange Rate

A model for the distribution of daily deviations of an exchange rate is suggested. The distribution is Gaussian with a variance that depends on previous deviations. The model is applied to the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to special drawing rights.     

Inference on Filtered and Smoothed Probabilities in Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models

ABSTRACT

We derive a statistical theory that provides useful asymptotic approximations to the distributions of the single inferences of filtered and smoothed probabilities, derived from time series characterized by Markov-switching dynamics. We show that the uncertainty in these probabilities diminishes when the states are separated, the variance of the shocks is low, and the time series or the regimes are persistent. As empirical illustrations of our approach, we analyze the U.S. GDP growth rates and the U.S. real interest rates. For both models, we illustrate the usefulness of the confidence intervals when identifying the business cycle phases and the interest rate regimes.     

Japanese Clocks and the History of Punctuality in Modern Japan

Although punctuality is well attained in present Japan, many foreign engineers who arrived in Japan from the mid 19th century observed that Japanese were seemingly indifferent to the clock, which leads us to a question about the origin of punctuality in modern Japan. The present paper first explains the time system and clocks in the Edo period, and then follows the origin and the evolution of punctuality in various sectors of Japanese society. Introducing the historian Sakae Tsunoyama’s two-layer theory to explain the origin of punctuality in modern Japan, the paper explores a question about when punctuality was attained and society accelerated in postwar Japan.

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Japanese Abstract  時間規律は現代の日本社会ではよく確立されている。 しかし、19 世紀末に日本に到来した多くの外国人技術者にとっては日本人が時計には無関心であるように思えた。このことは、近代日本における時間規律の起源という歴史的問題に導かれる。本稿は、最初に江戸時代における時刻制度と和時計について説明し、続いて日本社会の各領域における時間規律の起源と発展について追いかける。近代日本における時間規律の起源に関する歴史家角山榮による 2 層理論を紹介した上で、戦後日本における時間規律の達成、社会の加速化について検討する。

     

Graphical Techniques for Selecting Explanatory Variables for Time Series Data

Bayesian model building techniques are developed for data with a strong time series structure and possibly exogenous explanatory variables that have strong explanatory and predictive power. The emphasis is on finding whether there are any explanatory variables that might be used for modelling if the data have a strong time series structure that should also be included. We use a time series model that is linear in past observations and that can capture both stochastic and deterministic trend, seasonality and serial correlation. We propose the plotting of absolute predictive error against predictive standard deviation. A series of such plots is utilized to determine which of several nested and non-nested models is optimal in terms of minimizing the dispersion of the predictive distribution and restricting predictive outliers. We apply the techniques to modelling monthly counts of fatal road crashes in Australia where economic, consumption and weather variables are available and we find that three such variables should be included in addition to the time series filter. The approach leads to graphical techniques to determine strengths of relationships between the dependent variable and covariates and to detect model inadequacy as well as determining useful numerical summaries.     

综合阻尼系统的模态分析和时序模型

本文定义同时计及粘性阻尼和结构阻尼的系统为综合阻尼系统。讨论了多自由度比例综合阻尼系统的模态分析。推导出传递函数矩阵的表达式。应用拉氏变换和Z变换间关系,得到系统的ARMA时间序列模型。     

城市社会的时间地理学研究

时间地理学是结合地理学与社会学的研究方法则一种从各种时空制约条件下人的行为研究入手，以全新的视角来解释人地关系的方法，作者在概括地介绍时间地理学的产生背景及方法特色的基础上，重点说明了城市社会研究中时间地理学方法的应用状况，并展望了未来的研究方向。     

“前”字所反映的汉民族的时间认知

汉语中存在大量的"前"字所组成的时间词。这些时间词反映出汉民族的时间是空间的认知,表现出汉语空间—时间隐喻的直线性模式。这其中又存在两套时间是空间的隐喻系统——"时间移动"隐喻系统和"自我移动"隐喻系统,依据两个系统绝大部分时间词的语义已"脱离语境化",但少数时间词的语义并没有完全固化,需要认知语境的参与,进行认知推理,才能获取其意义。     

我国房地产价格发展趋势研究

 本文从房地产价格的相关理论出发，主要从房地产需求、房地产供给、房地产金融和房地产宏观调控等角度对影响房价的因素进行了分析，并从实证角度分析了各因素对房价的影响。本研究运用近10年房地产价格季度数据和时间序列模型对房地产价格发展趋势进行预测，最后提出房地产价格发展预警和稳定房价的建议。