Graphical Techniques for Selecting Explanatory Variables for Time Series Data

Bayesian model building techniques are developed for data with a strong time series structure and possibly exogenous explanatory variables that have strong explanatory and predictive power. The emphasis is on finding whether there are any explanatory variables that might be used for modelling if the data have a strong time series structure that should also be included. We use a time series model that is linear in past observations and that can capture both stochastic and deterministic trend, seasonality and serial correlation. We propose the plotting of absolute predictive error against predictive standard deviation. A series of such plots is utilized to determine which of several nested and non-nested models is optimal in terms of minimizing the dispersion of the predictive distribution and restricting predictive outliers. We apply the techniques to modelling monthly counts of fatal road crashes in Australia where economic, consumption and weather variables are available and we find that three such variables should be included in addition to the time series filter. The approach leads to graphical techniques to determine strengths of relationships between the dependent variable and covariates and to detect model inadequacy as well as determining useful numerical summaries.     

综合阻尼系统的模态分析和时序模型

本文定义同时计及粘性阻尼和结构阻尼的系统为综合阻尼系统。讨论了多自由度比例综合阻尼系统的模态分析。推导出传递函数矩阵的表达式。应用拉氏变换和Z变换间关系,得到系统的ARMA时间序列模型。     

城市社会的时间地理学研究

时间地理学是结合地理学与社会学的研究方法则一种从各种时空制约条件下人的行为研究入手，以全新的视角来解释人地关系的方法，作者在概括地介绍时间地理学的产生背景及方法特色的基础上，重点说明了城市社会研究中时间地理学方法的应用状况，并展望了未来的研究方向。     

“前”字所反映的汉民族的时间认知

汉语中存在大量的"前"字所组成的时间词。这些时间词反映出汉民族的时间是空间的认知,表现出汉语空间—时间隐喻的直线性模式。这其中又存在两套时间是空间的隐喻系统——"时间移动"隐喻系统和"自我移动"隐喻系统,依据两个系统绝大部分时间词的语义已"脱离语境化",但少数时间词的语义并没有完全固化,需要认知语境的参与,进行认知推理,才能获取其意义。     

我国房地产价格发展趋势研究

 本文从房地产价格的相关理论出发，主要从房地产需求、房地产供给、房地产金融和房地产宏观调控等角度对影响房价的因素进行了分析，并从实证角度分析了各因素对房价的影响。本研究运用近10年房地产价格季度数据和时间序列模型对房地产价格发展趋势进行预测，最后提出房地产价格发展预警和稳定房价的建议。     

具有超前或延误损失的单机排序问题

在变换条件下对于JIT准时生产制排序问题中的一种特殊情况──排序问题中只含超前损失和延误损失，得到最优序列的一些条件。     

Use of time and preferences for time allocation among urban,employed, married women

This study examines the relationship between employed wives' preferences for household production time, employment time, leisure, and their actual time use. A random sample of 235 employed, married women estimate their time use on an average weekday and weekend day in 13 activities and indicate their preferences for time in those activities. Hierarchical multiple regression procedures are used to examine the relationships between actual and preferred time use. Weekday employment time is not related to preferences for more or less time in household production but wives allocating more time to employment want to spend less time at that employment and more time in leisure. Weekend employment time is related to preferences for more time in leisure, child care, and other household work. Time spent performing household work is not related to preferences for more or less time in any activity except the desire for more leisure time on weekends.Ann Renigar Hiatt is Assistant Professor in the Department of Human Services, College of Education and Allied Professions at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223. Her research interests include employed women's time allocation, time pressures, and use of time management strategies. She received her Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina at Greensboro.Deborah D. Godwin is Associate Professor in the Department of Housing and Consumer Economics at the University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602. Her research has focused on husbands' and wives' time allocation to household production, the effects of women's employment on family economic functioning, and family financial management. She received her Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina at Greensbore.     

国际实施最终反倾销措施统计分析：1995－2006

 本文利用WTO的统计数据，对1995－2006年间的国际实施最终反倾销措施进行了统计分析。本文分别分析了WTO时代国际实施最终反倾销措施的总体特点、国别或地区分布、产品结构、国别或地区与产品的混合分布，并在此基础上提出了值得进一步研究的问题。     

精神是时间的本质——从费尔巴哈、马克思、海德格尔的批判看黑格尔时间思想的实质

在费尔巴哈看来，在黑格尔注重联系和发展的历史原则中，那种以时间为惟一向度的思辨哲学方法，最终成为反“时间”的“理性专制主义”。在马克思的批判中，黑格尔的绝对方法作为应用的形而上学，具有创造一切的权能——纯粹的、永恒的、无人身的理性自我运动、自我安置自己，通过思想运动建设世界，从而把现实的人的感性活动史颠倒成纯粹思维的生产史。从根本上说，黑格尔绝时方法的形成与黑格尔颠倒日常语言和哲学语言的关系密切相关。由于在黑格尔的思辨体系中，作为有限性（时间性）存在的人是无限存在即无人身的理性实现自身的场所、工具，所以海德格尔指认黑格尔哲学仍然是在场形而上学，黑格尔时间概念是本源时间的敉平。     

大学生心理控制源对时间管理倾向的影响

目的：探讨大学生心理控制源对时间管理倾向的影响,为高校教育教学工作提供参考和依据。方法：采用黄希庭编制的“青少年时间管理倾向量表”和罗特编制的“内在—外在心理控制源量表”对208名大学生进行测试。结果：大学生心理控制源在性别和年级方面不存在显著的差异,时间管理倾向在性别和年级方面存在显著的差异,女生在时间管理方面要好于男生,大一学生对时间的管理要好于其他年级的学生;大学生心理控制源与时间管理倾向及时间价值感、时间监控观呈显著正相关;内控型大学生在时间管理总体水平及时间监控观、时间效能感上均显著高于外控型大学生;回归分析表明,心理控制源对时间管理总体水平及时间价值感、时间监控观均具有显著的预测作用。结论：大学生心理控制源对其时间管理倾向具有显著影响,可以通过有针对性地归因训练来提高大学生的时间管理水平。