Parallel tempering for dynamic generalized linear models

ABSTRACT

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can be used for statistical inference. The methods are time-consuming due to time-vary. To resolve these problems, parallel tempering (PT), as a parallel MCMC method, is tried, for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs), as well as the several optimal properties of our proposed method. In PT, two or more samples are drawn at the same time, and samples can exchange information with each other. We also present some simulations of the DGLMs in the case and provide two applications of Poisson-type DGLMs in financial research.     

Estimating systems of trending variables

A survey is given of some results on inference in cointegrated systems. We discuss some regression methods, and contrast them with the analysis of the vector autoregressive model. We discuss determination of cointegrating rank and estimation of parameters, as well as asymptotic inference. The problems are treated for 1(1) and for 1(2) variables.     

Unobserved-Components Models for Seasonal Adjustment Filters

Time series models are presented, for which the seasonal-component estimates delivered by linear least squares signal extraction closely approximate those of the standard option of the widely-used Census X-11 program. Earlier work is extended by consideration of a broader class of models and by examination of asymmetric filters, in addition to the symmetric filter implicit in the adjustment of historical data. Various criteria that guide the specification of unobserved- components models are discussed, and a new preferred model is presented. Some nonstandard options in X-11 are considered in the Appendix.     

Discount-neutral utility models for denumerable time streams

This paper formulates and axiomatizes utility models for denumerable time streams that make no commitment in regard to discounting future outcomes. The models address decision under certainty and decision under risk. Independence assumptions in both contexts lead to additive or multiplicative utilities over time periods that allow unambiguous comparisons of the relative importance of different periods. The models accommodate all patterns of future valuation. This discount-neutral feature is attained by restricting preference comparisons to outcome streams or probability distributions on outcome streams that differ in at most a finite number of periods.     

Children's time in structured and unstructured leisure activities

Using the 1981 Time Use Longitudinal Panel Study data, this study examines factors which influence children's time use in leisure activities. More time is spent in unstructured than structured leisure activities. Analysis of variance is performed on 32 categories of leisure time, including total leisure, to determine the influence of characteristics of the child and the mother and other socioeconomic characteristics. Males spend significantly more time than females in active sports, playing games, and passive leisure especially watching television on weekends. Females spend significantly more time than males socializing on weekends. The amount of time spent socializing increases with age but decreases with employment. Time spent playing games decreases with age, increases with number of children, and decreases as family income increases. Given the large number of children who do not participate in a given set of leisure activities, future research should examine the probability of participation.The data used in this article were made available by the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research. The data for Time Use Longitudinal Panel Study, 1975–1981 were originally collected by F. Thomas Juster, Martha S. Hill, Frank P. Stafford, and Jacquelynne Eccles Parsons of the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, The University of Michigan. Neither the collector of the original data nor the Consortium bear any responsibility for the analysis or interpretation presented here.Carol B. Meeks is a Professor and Teresa Mauldin is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Housing and Consumer Economics, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602. Dr. Meeks' research interests include time use, family structure, and economic aspects of housing. She received her Ph.D. from Ohio State University. Dr. Mauldin, who also received her Ph.D. from Ohio State University, is interested in time use, economic well being of individuals and families, and family structure.     

刊物封面报道的新闻视角差异——《中国新闻周刊》和美国《时代》关于中国“冰灾”封面报道的比较

以中美两国的新闻周刊《中国新闻周刊》和《时代》的封面报道为研究对象,着重对《中国新闻周刊》和《时代》关于中国"冰灾"报道进行全面分析,从多个角度归·纳两份刊物的报道特点。以期从差异中找到差距,提出建议和意见,为中国主流新闻周刊提供建议和参考。     

Differences in allocation of family time spent on household tasks among single-parent,one-earner,and two-earner families

The purpose of this study is to use analysis of covariance to examine variations in time use among single-parent, one-earner, and two-earner families and to assess the effects of two covariates, Age of the Younger Child and Hours of Employment of the Homemaker, on total family time spent on household tasks. Data were collected from 81 single-parent and 210 two-parent California households using a questionnaire, time chart, and personal interviews. The greatest discrepancy between single-parent and two-parent families is that single-parent families spend significantly less time than two-parent families on Maintenance of the home and yard and on Nonphysical Care (social interaction with family members). One-earner families spend almost as much time as two-earner families on Nonphysical Care, but only when Secondary Time is included. Two household activities, Clothing Care and Management, are not affected by either family type or the covariates.This study utilized data from USDA Regional Research Project NE-113, An Urban-Rural Comparison of Families' Time Use.Jeanne M. Hilton is an Assistant Professor of Family Economics and Management, Department of Human Development and Family Studies, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557. She received her Ph.D. from Oregon State University. Her current research interests include work and family issues within the context of family structure.     

中国古代文献中的干支纪时

干支纪时是中国历史上特有的一种纪时方法。它有其独特的纪年、纪月、纪日的方式,其原则和规律是不能随意变更的。这种纪时方法大量地反映在中国古代文献中,是当今文人学者研究中国古代文化,必须跨越的一道门槛。本文力图通过对干支纪时的历史追溯,阐述干支纪时的原理和方法,使读者对其有一个较为清晰的了解和认识。     

对“三个代表”重要思想认识的重大发展——学习胡锦涛同志的“时代精神”论

从世界史上正在经历的两个百年、两个时代以及其间形成的两个时代主题、两个战略机遇期和两个一脉相承而又与时俱进的时代精神体系的角度,分析"三个代表"重要思想产生的历史必然性,论证了"时代精神"论是对"三个代表"重要思想认识的重大发展。     

文化与效用极大化的方向——20世纪30年代一个内地村庄的生活方式及其经济学意义

人类效用极大化的方向至少有两个:一个方向是欲望满足的最大化,对应于西方文化里的生活态度与人生目标;另一个方向是身心痛苦的最小化,对应于中国传统文化里的生活态度与人生目标.在费孝通早年研究的云南禄村,小地主们过着一种整天闲混的生活,他们依靠雇工种田,自己尽可能不工作.这是一条追求身心痛苦最小化的人生道路,与资本主义精神格格不入.因此,解释人类行为及社会现象的经济学理论,需要与当事人的生活态度及文化传统相契合,故具有本土特征.