公司运营危机预警模型的比较研究——以中国上市公司为例

研究当前国内外公司运营危机预警问题的现状,首先要寻找一套适合于我国上市公司的财务状况识别指标体系,然后依据该指标体系采用不同方法建立运营危机预警模型,最后利用样本公司实际指标数据对各个模型的短期及中期预警效果进行比较分析与实证研究。结果表明,分类树模型的三年期预警准确率都在80%以上。     

Norms,status and the dynamics of advice networks: A case study

The issue of the influence of norms on behavior is as old as sociology itself. This paper explores the effect of normative homophily (i.e. “sharing the same normative choices”) on the evolution of the advice network among lay judges in a courthouse. 0020 and 0025 social exchange theory suggests that members select advisors based on the status of the advisor. Additional research shows that members of an organization use similarities with others in ascribed, achieved or inherited characteristics, as well as other kinds of ties, to mitigate the potentially negative effects of this strong status rule. We elaborate and test these theories using data on advisor choice in the Commercial Court of Paris. We use a jurisprudential case about unfair competition (material and “moral” damages), a case that we submitted to all the judges of this court, to test the effect of normative homophily on the selection of advisors, controlling for status effects. Normative homophily is measured by the extent to which two judges are equally “punitive” in awarding damages to plaintiffs. Statistical analyses combine longitudinal advice network data collected among the judges with their normative dispositions. Contrary to what could be expected from conventional sociological theories, we find no pure effect of normative homophily on the choice of advisors. In this case, therefore, sharing the same norms and values does not have, by itself, a mitigating effect and does not contribute to the evolution of the network. We argue that status effects, conformity and alignments on positions of opinion leaders in controversies still provide the best insights into the relationship between norms, structure and behavior.     

Entering into,staying, and being active in a group of football supporters: a procedural analysis of engagement. The case of supporters of a French football club

In football (or soccer) stadiums, one of the ends (virages in French, or curve in Italian) brings together the most organized and ardent fans who support their team manu et voce. This article aims to define the dynamics leading individuals to become a part of a group of supporters, an engagement conceived of according to a sequential process. Through a qualitative inquiry, results show the importance of the relational networks in the process of engagement in this type of organization. Moreover, friendly interaction and the levels of sociability encountered over the course of action as part of supporting make up as much incentive to activism as may be understood in the condition of being set back in the general framework of the supporters' careers. The article ends with a discussion on the use of the sociology of collective action and mobilization in order to study the world of football supporters.     

Bridging and Bonding in the Academic Melting Pot: Cultural Resources and Network Diversity

Understanding how cultural resources shape the formation of social networks is a methodological challenge as well as a theoretical objective, and both are yet to be met. In this study, sociability on college campuses is modeled as a process in which students’ prior cultural experiences and the current social structure of the student body work together, affecting the likelihood of friendships that take place within or across racial boundaries. Structural and cultural perspectives are surveyed to develop hypotheses concerning the determinants of interracial friendship, and these hypotheses are tested against a sample of 3,392 students from the National Longitudinal Study of Freshmen. The results suggest that religiosity, political activism, high arts participation, and athletic activities undertaken prior to college affect the diversity of social networks formed in the first year, but work in different directions. The effects of these cultural experiences may be explained by the racial organization of cultural activity on campus.     

Who “Fills in” for Siblings and How? A Multilevel Analysis of Personal Network Composition and Its Relationship to Sibling Size1

In the midst of widespread fertility decline, I examine the relationship between sibling number and support network composition using multilevel regression on data from 25 countries. A fundamental structural effect of having fewer siblings is that individuals have a smaller pool of available close‐kin alters with whom to construct support networks. Consequently, networks of people with fewer siblings should be composed of different sorts of relations. Results confirm that such compositional adjustment occurs in systematic ways. Compared to those with three or more siblings, adults with none to two siblings (as separate categories) are more likely to expect support from parents, extended kin, and close friends but not more likely to do so from spouses/partners and children. Single children are also more likely to include neighbors and have smaller‐sized and/or impersonal networks. These findings contradict the primacy of familial ties in social support networks. Moreover, adjustment of support networks towards nonsibling ties occurs in culturally expected ways. Those with fewer siblings are generally only more likely to turn to ties for the types of support typically associated with those relations—parents for instrumental and financial support and friends for emotional support. Single children, however, also violate institutionalized expectations of social support by turning to ties for a wider range of social support. The results suggest that continuing declines in fertility could bring about both reinforcement and rearticulation of the sociocultural framing of close personal relationships. Moreover, consistent with recent research, the results show that personal networks are influenced more by individual‐level than country‐level factors.     

Gender identity and lexical variation in social media

We present a study of the relationship between gender, linguistic style, and social networks, using a novel corpus of 14,000 Twitter users. Prior quantitative work on gender often treats this social variable as a female/male binary; we argue for a more nuanced approach. By clustering Twitter users, we find a natural decomposition of the dataset into various styles and topical interests. Many clusters have strong gender orientations, but their use of linguistic resources sometimes directly conflicts with the population‐level language statistics. We view these clusters as a more accurate reflection of the multifaceted nature of gendered language styles. Previous corpus‐based work has also had little to say about individuals whose linguistic styles defy population‐level gender patterns. To identify such individuals, we train a statistical classifier, and measure the classifier confidence for each individual in the dataset. Examining individuals whose language does not match the classifier's model for their gender, we find that they have social networks that include significantly fewer same‐gender social connections and that, in general, social network homophily is correlated with the use of same‐gender language markers. Pairing computational methods and social theory thus offers a new perspective on how gender emerges as individuals position themselves relative to audiences, topics, and mainstream gender norms.     

我国亲告罪追诉模式之困境及其重构——以网络诽谤案件的证据收集问题为切入点

网络诽谤犯罪属于《刑法》规定的亲告罪类型,此类案件中被害人的证据收集能力受到较大制约,导致其面临“自诉困境”。对此问题,不论是亲告罪的选择性公诉化,还是公权力适当介入证据收集过程的处理路径均存在不足。《刑法修正案(九)》针对网络侮辱、诽谤犯罪的证据收集问题作出新规定,但是无法扩张适用于所有亲告罪类型。亲告罪的自诉困境凸显出我国对亲告罪确立的单纯自诉制追诉模式存在显著缺陷：不利于对被害人的平等保护,以及混淆告诉权和举证责任。重构亲告罪追诉模式的前提是对刑事法中的“告诉”进行重新解释,使其本质回归为诉讼条件,与证明责任“解绑”。在模式选择上,应确立混合告诉制的追诉模式,被害人提起告诉后,可以自主选择适用自诉程序还是公诉程序。     

Survival and integration: Kachin social networks and refugee management regimes in Kuala Lumpur and Los Angeles

How do refugees establish social networks and mobilise social capital in different contexts throughout a multi-stage migration process? Migrant social network literature explains how migrants accumulate social capital and mobilise resources in and between origin and destination but provides limited answers regarding how these processes unfold during refugee migrations involving protracted stays in intermediate locations and direct interaction with state agents. Drawing from ethnographic fieldwork with Kachin refugees in Kuala Lumpur and Los Angeles, I address these gaps by comparing refugee social networks in two sites of a migration process. Distinguishing between networks of survival and networks of integration, I argue that differences in their form and functions stem from their interactions with local refugee management regimes, which are shaped by broader state regulatory contexts. In both locations, these networks and regimes feed off each other to manage the refugee migration process, with key roles played by hybrid institutions rooted in grassroots adaptation efforts yet linked to formal resettlement mechanisms. Considering the refugee migration process as a whole, I show that Kachin refugees demonstrate their possession of social capital gained during the informal social process of migration to advance through institutionalised political processes of resettlement in each context.     

社交网络、投资者关注与股价同步性

随着以微博、微信为代表的社交网络信息平台在中国的崛起,形成了新媒体时代下信息资讯生成与扩散的完整传播链条,深刻地影响着金融市场参与主体的学习认知习惯、投资决策理念、交易行为模式,最终影响不同金融资产的价格波动规律． 本文在新媒体时代情景下,以社交网络信息披露与传播平台为切入点,基于信息关注度、信赖度、更新频率等三层维度,构建社交网络微博信息质量指标体系,研究社交网络信息质量与股价同步性的内在关联关系． 研究表明: 微博信息质量与股价同步性有着显著的高度负向线性关联性,并且呈现出非线性 U 型关系． 即随着社交网络信息质量水平的提升,股价同步性逐渐降低到达最小值,而后又逐渐提高． 研究结论为证明上市公司社交网络微博平台对股价同步性有较强影响力,提供了中国金融市场的证据．     

Networks for Welfare Provision: Getting a Grip on Processes of Social Exclusion by Evaluating Network Effectiveness

It has been repeatedly stated that the topic of network effectiveness has often been neglected. This has led to a situation of ‘network euphoria’ amongst practitioners and policymakers with regard to the creation of networks as a means to (re‐)organize welfare provision. Starting from a case study of networks for welfare provision in two Belgian cities, this article focuses on the effectiveness of service delivering networks at the client level, which is understood as the contribution of the network in improving the conditions of life of those being served or targeted by the network. Therefore, we focused on the collective efforts via these networks (e.g. by creating a night shelter or by conducting case consultations) to look after a population of homeless people who face multiple problems and are not able yet to benefit from welfare provision. Our findings revealed that these networks were able to realize a ‘collaborative advantage’ by filling in service gaps and by overcoming fragmentation of care. Nevertheless, these networks equally maintained criteria that restricted the accessibility or usefulness of welfare services provided to homeless people. In the concluding section, we highlight some of the factors that could help us to explain our findings and highlight the tension between the effectiveness of networks at the client level and the effectiveness at the organizational level.