Interacting mechanisms of time inconsistency

We interact two prominent behavioral mechanisms of time inconsistency that have been used to study inadequate saving: hyperbolic discounting and short-term planning. Hyperbolic discounting is a conventional way to model impulsive decision making, and short planning horizons have been used to represent myopia. One might expect that interacting both mechanisms within the same model would compound the inadequacy of saving. However, our key finding takes the form of a paradox: hyperbolic discounting does not affect consumption and saving allocations if the planning horizon is short and fixed, although it will affect allocations if the planning horizon is equal to the remaining life span. We demonstrate analytically that this finding is robust to the shape of the disposable income path, to the coarseness of the time grid, and to alternative forms of the period utility function.     

Competing Frameworks in Planning for the Aged in the Growth Corridors of Melbourne

The Ageing in the Growth Corridors Project was initiated as a partnership between the University of Melbourne and the Department of Health in the Northwest Metropolitan Region of Melbourne, Australia. It involved a research team working with six project officers appointed to stimulate development in relation to an aging population in the sprawling outer metropolitan growth corridors. This article identifies the key lessons learned in terms of project implementation relating to attitudinal and structural barriers to the development of an age-friendly environment in areas of rapid urban growth. The findings illustrate some of the dilemmas raised by competing program conceptions, a dynamic and changing federal/state policy context, and local resource and strategic management constraints. The partnership with the university, nevertheless, provided a point of stability and continuity for the project officers in implementing their mandate.     

Potential of decentralized wastewater management for urban development: Case of Bangkok

Decentralized wastewater management (DWWM) has recently gained much attention in wastewater management (WWM) due to its build-as-you-go principal. Rapid urban development and the widespread impact of wastewater require sustainable ways to test the DWWM approach. This paper aims to examine and discuss the potential of Bangkok’s current WWM approaches for urban development, focusing on decentralized management approaches. General WWM approaches were examined using case study research methods. Three WWM cases were selected for detailed investigation. Residential wastewater user surveys and expert interviews were used to support system performance findings of service providers and recipients, as well as to draw lessons learned. Results show that DWWM is economically and technically efficient, demonstrating potential for sustainable urban development (SUD) in the study area. The competitive cost found is a result of less sewer line, simple technology, and limited additional costs, while the high efficiency is a result of good operation and maintenance. Also the reclaimed water has been used for landscape irrigation of the urban greenery. Sustainability of the system lies in social value of public amenity it provides, and the urban planning implication that it could be an option for smart growth. The results also show that even in an inner urban area DWWM does not conflict with any SUD considerations. Thus, the study recommends using DWWM for new development within both public and private properties based on Bangkok’s case as part of long-term urban development.     

How organizational characteristics affect the adaptive tactics used by human service nonprofit managers confronting financial uncertainty

The way that nonprofits respond to funding uncertainty is crucial to their ability to meet goals and position themselves for future success. This article investigates how structural, managerial, and financial characteristics affect the adaptive tactics used by human service nonprofits during times of financial stress. These tactics include adding new programs, reducing programs or staff, expanding or starting joint programs, pursuing earned income, and expanding advocacy involvement. Using longitudinal data on human service nonprofits collected on either side of the 2002–2003 economic downtown, we find that larger size provides organizations with a unique ability to choose among different adaptive tactics, as larger size was significantly predictive of adding new programs, reducing programs, expanding advocacy, and pursuing earned income. Strategic planning was positively associated with innovative tactics such as starting joint programs or pursuing earned income. Financial stress or declines in an organization's major funding source led to cutbacks, as expected, but managers who foresaw these challenges were able to respond proactively by adding programs or starting joint programs. However, managers with more training did not respond much differently than did other managers, and organizational age and use of performance management tools had no effect in guiding organizational responses to financial uncertainty.     

论北京“城中村”改造——兼述流动人口聚居区合作治理

2009年以来北京开始进行大规模的城中村改造。这场由政府主导的乡村社会变革,对城乡结合部流动人口聚居区产生了重要影响。本文在概括北京城中村改造模式的基础上,对城中村改造的作用给予了积极评价,同时指出城中村改造周边地区可能面临更深的发展困境,应通过合作治理寻求解决城乡结合部流动人口聚居区社会问题的治理之道。目前北京已经具备了实现流动人口聚居区合作治理的基本条件,可以在市区政府是主导、乡村组织是枢纽、社区成员是核心、社会团体和社会单位(企业)是支撑、专业NGO是助推器的合作治理框架下,以生活设施改造和社会管理体制创新为突破口,统筹兼顾尚待城市化地区的协调发展。     

人口计生工作职能转变与建设高素质职业化队伍

行政管理体制改革是深化改革的重要环节。新时期人口和计划生育工作任重道远。要实现未来人口发展目标,转变人口和计划生育工作职能,关键要建设一支高素质的职业化队伍。国家人口计生委在机构得到充实和加强的基础上,着力转变职能,理顺关系,优化结构和提高效能,促进了人口计生工作健康、深入、持续发展。     

再论“四二一”结构:定义与研究方法

"四二一"结构是中国低生育率背景下家庭结构与代际关系的一种特殊表达,既反映了20世纪70年代以来计划生育政策广泛推行对中国家庭的深刻影响,又揭示了中国现阶段婚姻家庭乃至未来人口发展的特点与趋势。目前这一领域的研究虽然已经取得一系列的进展,但在概念界定与使用的方法上仍缺乏共识,导致研究结论的分歧和研究拓展的迟滞。在中国社会剧烈变动的形势下,"四二一"结构是研究中国的计划生育政策、独生子女问题,以及家庭结构与代际关系变动的一个良好的载体和切入点。     

基于logistic模型的外来人口婚姻迁移的影响因素分析——以珠三角某地区为例

婚姻迁移是人口迁移的一个方面,且增多趋势愈见明显。动机研究是人口迁移相对集中的关注问题。但是关于以迁入地为基点对婚姻迁移的影响因素分析相对较少。本文试图以某地区为例,研究其外来人口中婚姻迁移行为发生的影响因素,主要包括个人、户籍、经济、就业和城市适应五大因素,并引入logistic模型对测量变量进行统计分析。结果表明,个人因素对婚姻迁移的贡献最大,除了就业因素外,其他因素的贡献相似。尤其指出的是随着外来人口的城市适应程度提高,婚姻迁移的可能性将会增加。由此说明,外来人口城市生活的再社会化程度将为他们的社会融合奠定基础。     

城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金支付能力预测研究

随着人口老龄化进程的加剧。我国城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金收支出现了巨大缺口并呈现逐步扩大的趋势,导致基金支付能力持续下降。本文应用社会保障精算方法与技术,以社会养老保险现行政策为导向。引入2005年颁布的《国务院关于完善企业职工基本养老保险制度的决定》中新养老金计发办法的经济参数。构建城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金收入与基金支出测算模型,其中以2006年新政策实施年为时间界限。分别构建“老人”、2006年前退休的“中人”（“老中人”）、2006年后退休的“中人”（“新中人”）、“新人”四类群体的基本养老保险基金支出洲算模型。从而推导出城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金支付能力预测精算模型。以期对养老保险基金失衡风险和支竹能力危机进行及时预测。并为社会养老保险政策调整和制度完善提供量化依据。     

论新型农村合作医疗制度的城乡统筹——以杭州为例

2003年新型农村合作医疗制度试点实施以来,杭州试图让农民和城镇非从业人员根据自身实际情况灵活选择不同的医疗保险项目、定点医院,并逐步提高筹资水平,报销和补偿水平。通过分析杭州新农合实施过程、运作逻辑,从制度供给的公平性、可及性和合理性出发,认为新型农村合作医疗制度可以实现有差别统一的城乡统筹。