宏观经济分析思路刍议

从与国际学术界研究范式接轨的角度出发,本文对宏观经济分析的一般思路作了系统的讨论。本文主张,前提假设、逻辑推理和实证检验是现代经济分析方法的主要框架。任何规范的经济研究,必须首先推敲问题所处的经济环境,从而抽象出环境的主要特征,即研究过程受制于和受益于何种条件。经济学逻辑推理的范式基本上是数理的方式,实证检验则一般是应用计量经济学的方法。     

《慎到浑天说真伪考》词语补正

本文主要解决"轻清"、"劲风"两词语用于宇宙创生和天文学的断代问题,以期从汉语史角度缜密追踪<慎子>慎懋赏万历刻本作伪的论断,由此旁及"清阳"、"清轻"、"轻清"、"劲风"等的诸多义项,可补<汉语大词典>收义不全的不足.     

“周星”考

"周星"一词,《辞源》、《汉语大词典》释为"岁星"、"指十二年",引白居易文、周亮工诗等为例,片面而有误。此词在古文献中之意义,除了上引两辞书所列义项(但辞书所引例多误)外,尚有下列义项:一、"一年。"二、"岁月,年华。"三、"一岁(用于表示年龄)。"四、"星名"(非"岁星")。     

Comparison of the accuracy of multiple binary tests in the presence of partial disease verification

In the presence of partial disease verification, the comparison of the accuracy of binary diagnostic tests cannot be carried out through the paired comparison of the diagnostic tests applying McNemar's test, since for a subsample of patients the disease status is unknown. In this study, we have deduced the maximum likelihood estimators for the sensitivities and specificities of multiple binary diagnostic tests and we have studied various joint hypothesis tests based on the chi-square distribution to compare simultaneously the accuracy of these binary diagnostic tests when for some patients in the sample the disease status is unknown. Simulation experiments were carried out to study the type I error and the power of each hypothesis test deduced. The results obtained were applied to the diagnosis of coronary stenosis.     

The effect of verification bias on the comparison of predictive values of two binary diagnostic tests

The comparison of the accuracy of two binary diagnostic tests has traditionally required knowledge of the disease status in all of the patients in the sample via the application of a gold standard. In practice, the gold standard is not always applied to all patients in a sample, and the problem of partial verification of the disease arises. The accuracy of a binary diagnostic test can be measured in terms of positive and negative predictive values, which represent the accuracy of a diagnostic test when it is applied to a cohort of patients. In this paper, we deduce the maximum likelihood estimators of predictive values (PVs) of two binary diagnostic tests, and the hypothesis tests to compare these measures when, in the presence of partial disease verification, the verification process only depends on the results of the two diagnostic tests. The effect of verification bias on the naïve estimators of PVs of two diagnostic tests is studied, and simulation experiments are performed in order to investigate the small sample behaviour of hypothesis tests. The hypothesis tests which we have deduced can be applied when all of the patients are verified with the gold standard. The results obtained have been applied to the diagnosis of coronary stenosis.     

《登科记考》续考补

此文于笔者在20世纪80年代《登科记考考补》考出76人之外,又据有关金石、碑文、墓志、方志等等,加以辑撰,再补录唐代进士科等27人,仅为"百不存一"补苴罅漏而已。     

清代山西按察使史实考异

根据有关上谕、奏折、履历等档案及吏科史书和志传家乘等资料,对清代山西按察使姓名、籍贯、出身及任职离职等有关记载歧异之史实进行考订。     

The analysis of unreliable M[X]/G/1 queuing system with loss,vacation and two delays of verification

This paper considers an M^[X]/G/1 queue with breakdowns, repair, Bernoulli vacation, two delays and geometric loss. In this paper, a special attention is given to the limiting distribution of system states. We obtain simplified expressions for the Probability Generating Functions (PGFs) of the joint distribution of server state and system size. Some performance measures were derived from the analysis of the steady state probabilities. PGF of a departure point system size distribution is developed. Particular cases of the studied system were investigated. The effect of system parameters on the main performance measures are illustrated and discussed.     

对达米特意义理论的异议

在构造自己意义理论过程中,达米特的许多观点也受到了学界质疑:达米特并没有提出一个完整的意义理论,它只是一个修正性的建议。他的意义理论与逻辑实证主义的理论是否有区别?不可判定语句的真值条件真的不可显示吗?把关于数学陈述的意义理论推广到非数学的领域是否适当?我们只有正视这些批评,并关注达米特对这些批评的回应,这样我们才可能对达米特的意义理论有一个全面、合理的评价。     

杨维帧籍贯别号考

杨维桢的籍贯,明清以来,说法不一。通过对诸暨的归属沿革、杨氏的世系和杨维桢出生地的故迹的考察,说明杨维桢的籍贯为诸暨是最确切的。杨维桢还有数十个奇奇怪怪的别号,反映了其在元末明初社会动荡剧变时期的处境、志趣及思想观念的变异、矛盾。