Characterizations of geometric distribution and discrete IFR (DFR) distributions using order statistics

Let X be a discrete random variable the set of possible values (finite or infinite) of which can be arranged as an increasing sequence of real numbers a₁<a₂<a₃<…. In particular, a_i could be equal to i for all i. Let X_1n≦X_2n≦?≦X_nn denote the order statistics in a random sample of size n drawn from the distribution of X, where n is a fixed integer ≧2. Then, we show that for some arbitrary fixed k(2≦k≦n), independence of the event {X_kn=X_1n} and X_1n is equivalent to X being either degenerate or geometric. We also show that the montonicity in i of P{X_kn = X_1n | X_1n = a_i} is equivalent to X having the IFR (DFR) property. Let a_i = i and $\text{G(i) = P(X≧i), i = 1, 2, …}$. We prove that the independence of {X_2n ? X_1n ∈B} and X_1n for all i is equivalent to X being geometric, where B = {m} (B = {m,m+1,…}), provided G(i) = q^i?1, 1≦i≦m+2 (1≦i≦m+1), where 0<q<1.     

Three models of OPEC leadership and policy in the aftermath of Iran

Collapse of the Shah's regime has transformed Iran's attitude regarding oil production policy. The nature of OPEC leadership is changing as well. Three models examine the nature of this leadership inside OPEC: (1) the conventional price leadership model, (2) a model emphasizing a concept of egalitarian leadership, and (3) a team model composed of coalitions. The three models establish the limits within which OPEC leadership is exercised. A composite model drawing upon all three sets of results suggests that Saudi Arabia shapes cartel policy not by itself, but through a dominant coalition of states. For most of the period 1969–1978 this coalition has been stable. Following the unsettling changes of 1973, cooptation of Iran into the dominant coalition in 1974 was an important step in achieving a new level of stability. But during the turbulence of regime transformation in Iran, the nature of the governing coalition appears to have changed. One consequence may be that in the future Saudi Arabia will yield more willingly to arguments heard within OPEC on behalf of upwards price pressure, especially in an atmosphere of growing political isolation and overall tight supply.     

Debt management in a small open economy: A theoretical and an empirical study for Belgium

This article analyzes the effects of debt management and its consequence for the control of base money in a small open economy (Belgium). The study compares the effects obtained from a small theoretical model with the results of a larger empirical model.The theoretical model focuses on the financing of government by money operation, on the bond rate, and on the international reserve of the Central Bank.The empirical model is a medium-term one, including the demand and the supply sectors of the economy and permitting simultaneous analysis of real and financial variables.The effects of an endogeneous or exogenous debt management have been studied by numerical simulation of modification in the public expenditure, the world trade, and the discount rate.     

网絡协議TCP/IP

网络协议TCP/IP,分别相当于ISO/OSI参考模式中的第四层和第三层,源于美国国防部ARPANET的协议标准.目前,在高档微机工程工作站中得到广泛的应用,并成为工业界的一个“公认”标准. 本文介绍TCP/IP协议,并结合对B-NET(运行于16位微机DUAL系统83和UNIX系统V)中的TCP/IP的提取和分析,着重说明它们的接口及其执行过程机理.     

中港两地法律冲突的解决原则及其现行的国际私法规范

“一国两制”已从理论的构思即将跨入社会实践阶段.香港特别行政区1997年成立后,我国将出现一崭新的法律现象——“一国两法”。那么在一个主权国家之内,如果存在着不同的法律区域,而这些不同法域民事法律关系的主体又不可避免地要进行交往,这就产生了这种跨区域的民事法律关系受哪一区域的法律调整的问题。这种法律上的矛盾和抵触状态,法律上称之为“区际法律冲突”。     

TM_(010)模圆柱腔GUNN振荡器

本文论述了 TM_(010)模式圆柱腔 GUNN 振荡器的理论基础、设计原理与使用特点。这种振荡器在微波技术中作为中精度、小功率信号源在测量、雷达、微波通信、卫星通信以及微波报警器等方面有广泛的应用。     

Approximation spline de la prevision d'un processus fonctionnel autorégressif d'ordre 1

ABSTRACT We present a method to approximate and forecast, on an entire interval, a continuous-time process. For this purpose, we use the modelization of ARH(l) processes, defined by Bosq (1991). We deal with the practical problem of the discretization of the observed trajectories and approximate them by means of spline functions. We show by simulations that for well-chosen smoothing parameters, good prediction can be obtained in comparison with the “predictable” part of the process. Finally, we apply this model to forecast road traffic and compare it with a SARIMA model.     

Policy simulations with a macroeconometric model of the Indian economy

In this paper, the results of various dynamic policy simulations are analyzed within the context of a macroeconometric model of the Indian economy. The model contains 35 equations and offers a consistent framework for policy analysis. It is considerably expanded on the side of the fiscal sector and usefully incorporates the interdependence between monetary and fiscal sectors and gives due attention to supply side considerations. Magnitudes of effects of sustained policy changes are analyzed for the period 1964–1965 to 1974–1975. Impact multipliers and elasticities are also analyzed. Government expenditures variables and deficit financing are shown to have substantial impact on the system whereas changes in tax-rates, discount-rates, and liquidity ratios for commercial banks are shown to have only a marginal impact. The model is used for exploring the growth potential of the economy in a forecast period of five years under alternative assumptions regarding policy options.     

The behavior of the battered child: A behavioral deficiency syndrome resulting from developmental interferences and reactive learning

Behavioral observation of battered children reveals a generalized syndrome consisting of apathy, social isolation, emotional constriction, aggression, and intellectual, motor and language retardation. This syndrome is considered to be a ‘behavioral deficiency syndrome.’ Developmental interference imposed by abusive parents upon the child, and subsequent reactive learning by the child are discussed as etiological factors in the development of this syndrome. Implication of these etiological factors for therapy of the abusive family are also discussed.     

金丝猴(Rhinopithecus roxellanae)的野外行为生态学的初步研究

本文主要介绍金丝猴集群的主要特征,在川西北地区,其社群大小变化较大,少则30～40只,多至150～200只,其社群是以众多的类似于“小家庭”为基本单元所组成,而这种以家庭为中心的群体结构形式是直接或间接的与生育繁殖(血缘关系)有关。树栖且活动敏捷,白天觅食活动,晚上静止休息,且对幼仔具有强有效的保护性。